Bloggfrslur mnaarins, jn 2009

Grurhsahrifin dsamlegu...

Grurhsahrifin eru mikil blessun fyrir okkur jararba, menn dr og grur. v verur varla mti mlt. Pistillinn er helgaur essu magnaa fyrirbri og a skoa fr msum hlium.

Hvernig vri lfi jrinni n grurhsahrifanna? v er fljtsvara: a vri murlegt.

murlegt? Kannski er a ekki rtta ori, v lklega vri rttara a segja a n grurhsahrifanna vri ekkert lf jrinni. A minnsta kosti ekkert lkingu vi a lf sem vi ekkjum. Hvers vegna? J, vegna ess a n essara dsamlegu grurhsahrifa vri mealhiti jarar -18C sta ess a vera +15C eins og hann er. a rkti sem sagt hrkufrost jrinni og fimbulkuldi. Mealhitinn vri 33C lgri en hann er dag.

Hvernig vitum vi etta? J a er tiltlulega auvelt a reikna t hver lofthiti jarar vri n grurhsahrifanna og einnig hitastigi reikistjrnunum, eins og raui ferillinn snir.

Grurhsahrifin Venus eru grarleg, milungs mikil Jrinni og heldur minni Mars.

Nttruleg grurhsahrif

Raui ferillinn snir treikna hitastig nokkrum reikistjrnum ea tunglum eirra.
Blu punktarnir sna raunverulegt hitastig eins og menn ykjast hafa mlt a.
Grnu lrttu strikin sna hitahkkun vegna grurhsahrifa.
Lengdin grna strikinu vi Jrina tti v a vera 33C, .e. fr -18C til +15C. Mars er hitahkkunin aeins um 5C, en grarleg Venusi.

Tlur um raunverulegt hitastig reikistjrnunum er nokku reiki, enda erfitt a koma vi mlum sama htt og jrinni. ess vegna m ekki taka tlurnar sem koma fram myndinni of bkstaflega, en r gefa smilega vsbendingu um raunveruleikann.

G grein um Svarthlutargeislun (Black Body Radiation og lgml Stafan Boltzman), sem kvarar raua ferilinn myndinni, er hr Stjrnufrivefnum.

Grurhsahrifin gera jrina lifvnlega. Vi skulum v hugsa hllega til eirra, srstaklega mildum sumardgum eins og vi njtum um essar mundir Smile


Hafsinn yfir mealtali ranna 1979-2007 aprl-ma.

Hafsinn norurslum var aprl-ma aeins yfir mealtali ranna 1979-2007 eins og sj m ferlinum hr fyrir ofan. (Pistillinn er skrifaur 14. jn).

Er hafsinn ar farinn a aukast aftur? Hvert stefnir raui ferillinn?

Spennandi verur a fylgjast me runinni nstu mnui og r. Taki eftir dagsetningunni sem er nest til vinstri myndinni. Myndin tti a uppfrast daglega.

Ferillinn er fr Arctic ROOS. Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center Noregi.


Njar frttir af Svensmark tilrauninni hj CERN Sviss...

Flestir kannast vi kenningar danska vsindamannsins Dr. Henriks Svensmark prfessors varandi hugsanleg hrif geimgeisla skjafar og ar me hrif hitafar lofthjpsins. essi kenning hefur valdi nokkrum titringi vsindaheiminum. Hj rannsknarstofnuninni CERN eru menn fullu a undirba rndra tilraun ar sem reynt verur a komast a raun um hvort essi kenning eigi vi rk a styjast. Tilraunin kallast CLOUD (Clouds Leaving OUtdoor Droplets).

r frttir voru a berast a okuhylki stra ar sem hgt verur a lkja eftir astum lofthjpnum er komi. Lkt verur eftir geimgeislum me orkumiklum reindahrali. essi tmamt eru fangi eftir riggja ra rannsknar og runarstarf vi undirbning tilraunarinnar.

Sj frlega umfjllun um ennan fanga vefsu CERN: On Cloud nine. ar er m.a. sm vdklippa.

Fyrir feinum dgum hlt Jasper Kirkby hj CERN erindi. kynningu erindisins segir:

The current understanding of climate change in the industrial age is that it
is predominantly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, with
relatively small natural contributions due to solar irradiance and volcanoes.
However, palaeoclimatic reconstructions show that the climate has
frequently varied on 100-year time scales during the Holocene (last 10 kyr)
by amounts comparable to the present warming - and yet the mechanism or
mechanisms are not understood. Some of these reconstructions show clear
associations with solar variability, which is recorded in the light
radio-isotope archives that measure past variations of cosmic ray intensity.
However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate
variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is
established.


Estimated changes of solar irradiance on these time scales appear to be too
small to account for the climate observations. This raises the question of
whether cosmic rays may directly affect the climate, providing an effective
indirect solar forcing mechanism. Indeed recent satellite observations -
although disputed - suggest that cosmic rays may affect clouds. This talk
presents an overview of the palaeoclimatic evidence for solar/cosmic ray
forcing of the climate, and reviews the possible physical mechanisms.
These will be investigated in the CLOUD experiment which begins to take
data at the CERN PS later this year.


Glrur sem Kirkby notai eru hr. a er a finna mjg mikinn frleik.

Hgt er a hlusta og horfa erindi me v a smella hr.

Lng grein eftir Jasper Kirkby Cosmic Rays and Climate er hr.

Hr er lsing verkefninu. etta er m.a. listi yfir r stofnanir sem koma a verkinu, tmatlun, kostnaartlanir og tlanir um fjlda starfsmanna sem vinna munu a verkefninu. etta skjal er fr rinu 2006 egar smi tkjabnains var a hefjast.

N eru hjlin greinilega farin a snast. Hva skyldi koma t essari tilraun hj CERN? Mun hn renna stoum undir kenningar Svensmark? Ef svo fer, mun a skekja vsindaheiminn svo um munar?

a er auvita allt of snemmt a vera me einhverjar getgtur, en hugsanlega verum vi einhvers frari nsta ri.

r vitali vi Kirkby:

"I think the evidence for a link between reconstructions of past climate change and solar activity is too strong to ignore," explains Jasper Kirkby, Spokesperson for the CLOUD experiment. "There are a lot of observations showing that variations of the sun seem to be affecting the climate, but we dont yet know what the mechanism for this is."

"The aim of CLOUD is to understand whether or not cosmic rays can affect clouds and climate, by studying the microphysical interactions of cosmic rays with aerosols, cloud droplets and ice particles." This is one of the possible mechanisms for solar-climate variability since the solar wind the stream of charged particles ejected from the sun varies over time and affects the intensity of the cosmic rays that reach the Earth.

"The whole process is well understood except for whether or not cosmic rays do indeed affect clouds. If that process can be established then I think solar-climate variability will very rapidly change from being a controversial subject to one with a lot of respectability. If, on the other hand, we rule out the process then this will allow us to focus on other mechanisms that might be causing the link."

Sj umfjllun um kenninguna bloggpistlinum fr 7. feb. 2007:

Byltingarkennd kenning dansks vsindamanns skekur vsindaheiminn.

Smella tvisvar mynd til a stkka.

essir hsklar og stofnanir standa a verkefninu:

University of Aarhus, Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus, Denmark

University of Bergen, Institute of Physics, Bergen, Norway

California Institute of Technology, Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Pasadena, USA

CERN, Geneva, Switzerland

Danish National Space Center, Copenhagen, Denmark

Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

Helsinki Institute of Physics, Helsinki, Finland

University of Helsinki, Laboratory of Aerosol and Environmental Physics, Helsinki, Finland

University of Kuopio, Department of Applied Physics, Kuopio, Finland

Lebedev Physical Institute, Solar and Cosmic Ray Research Laboratory, Moscow, Russia

University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom

Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, Germany

University of Mainz, Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Mainz, Germany

Max-Planck Institute for Nuclear Physics (MPIK), Heidelberg, Germany

University of Missouri-Rolla, Cloud and Aerosol Sciences Laboratory, Rolla, USA

State University of New York at Albany, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, New York, USA

Paul Scherrer Institute, Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Switzerland

University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom

Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Space Science & Particle Physics Depts., Chilton, United Kingdom

Tampere University of Technology, Department of Physics, Tampere, Finland

University of Vienna, Institute for Experimental Physics, Vienna, Austria



Nr 30 ra hitaferill: Hvers vegna er etta hik hnatthlnuninni?

Ferillinn hr fyrir ofan snir breytingu hitastigi lofthjps jarar sastliin 30 r, ea fr v er mlingar hfust me gervihnttum. Myndin er fr vefsu Dr. Roy Spencer loftslagsfrings og nr ferillinn til loka mamnaar.

Ef maur skoar ennan feril virist sem eftirfarandi blasi vi:

1) Ekkert hefur hlna san ri 2002.

2) San 2007 virist jafnvel vera tilhneiging til klnunar.

3) a arf ekki miki a gerast til a lofthitinn ni smu gildum og fyrir um 30 rum. Taki eftir a vimiunin (lrtta lnan 0,0) er mealtal ranna 1979-1998.

4) Nttrulegar skammtmasveiflur eru verulegar, eins og t.d. af vldum Mt. Pinatubo 1991 og El Nino Kyrrahafinu 1998.

5) La Nina Kyrrahafinu 2008 orsakai skammtma niursveiflu. La Nina er gengi til baka (ENSO neutral), en samt er tilhneigingin niurvi.

Auvita er varasamt a draga of miklar lyktanir af v sem hefur veri a gerast undanfarin tv r, en egar rin eru orin sj fara augnalokin neitanlega a opnast og maur fer a spyrja sig hvort eitthva s bger... Errm

Hver er lkleg run nstu ra?


Höfundur

Ágúst H Bjarnason
Ágúst H Bjarnason

Verkfr. hjá Verkís.
agbjarn-hjá-gmail.com

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