Bloggfrslur mnaarins, jn 2011

American Astronomical Society dag: rj rannsknir benda til hratt minnkandi slvirkni nstunni...

sunspots-shadow.jpg


Merkilegar frttir voru a berast dag fr rstefnu Bandarska Stjarnfriflagsins, American Astronomical Society, sem haldin er essari viku New Mexico State University Las Cruces, New Mexico.

Lesa m frtt um mli SPACE.COM. Sj hr. Upphaflega frttatilkynningin er hr nest sunni og myndir sem henni fylgdu eru hr. Vde-frtt John Colemans m sj hr.

Samkvmt frttinni benda niurstur riggja rannskna til ess a virkni slar stefni mjg mikla lg nstu rum. Um er a ra rannsknir irum slar, yfirborinu og krnu hennar. Um slina m frast hr Stjrnufrivefnum.

Frttin fr rstefnunni hefst annig:

Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity
http://www.space.com/11960-fading-sunspots-slower-solar-activity-solar-cycle.html

Date: 14 June 2011 Time: 01:01 PM ET

Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years.

The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated.

The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.

Ennfremur segir:

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate director of the National Solar Observatory's Solar Synoptic Network. "But the fact that three completely different views of the sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."

...

"We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now, but we see no sign of it," Hill said. "This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all."

...

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades," Hill said. "That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate."

essi frtt barst dag kl. 17 a slenskum tma. Vntanlega hn eftir a vekja athygli og umrur.

Sj nnar Space.com:


Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity
http://www.space.com/11960-fading-sunspots-slower-solar-activity-solar-cycle.html

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Hr er samantekt (abstract) greinanna sem vsa er til tilkynningunni:

P16.10
Large-scale Zonal Flows During the Solar Minimum Where Is Cycle 25?13
Frank Hill, R. Howe, R. Komm, J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, T. P. Larson, J. Schou, M. J. Thompson


The so-called torsional oscillation is a pattern of migrating zonal flow bands that move from midlatitudes towards the equator and poles as the magnetic cycle progresses. Helioseismology allows us to probe these flows below the solar surface. The prolonged solar minimum following Cycle 23 was accompanied by a delay of 1.5 to 2 years in the migration of bands of faster rotation towards the equator. During the rising phase of Cycle 24, while the lower-level bands match those seen in the rising phase of Cycle 23, the rotation rate at middle and higher latitudes remains slower than it was at the corresponding phase in earlier cycles, perhaps reflecting the weakness of the polar fields. In addition, there is no evidence of the poleward flow associated with Cycle 25. We will present the latest results based on nearly sixteen years of global helioseismic observations from GONG and MDI, with recent results from HMI, and discuss the implications for the development of Cycle 25.

-

P17.21
A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor

W. C. Livingston, M. Penn, L. Svalgaard
s Convention Center

Sunspots are small dark areas on the solar disk where internal magnetism, 1500 to 3500 Gauss, has been
buoyed to the surface. (Spot life times are the order of one day to a couple of weeks or more. They are thought to be dark because convection inhibits the outward transport of energy there). Their vigor can be described by spot area, spot brightness intensity, and magnetic field. From 2001 to 2011 we have measured field strength and brightness at the darkest position in umbrae of 1750 spots using the Zeeman splitting of the Fe 1564.8 nm line. Only one observation per spot per day is carried out during our monthly telescope time of 3-4 days average. Over this interval the temporal mean magnetic field has declined about 500 Gauss and mean spot intensity has risen about 20%. We do not understand the physical mechanism behind these changes or the effect, if any, it will have on the Earth environment.

-

P18.04
Whither goes Cycle 24? A View from the Fe XIV Corona
Richard C. Altrock


Solar Cycle 24 had a historically prolonged and weak start. Observations of the Fe XIV corona from the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory showed an abnormal pattern of emission compared to observations of Cycles 21, 22, and 23 from the same instrument. The previous three cycles had a strong, rapid Rush to the Poles in Fe XIV. Cycle 24 displays a delayed, weak, intermittent, and slow Rush that is mainly apparent in the northern hemisphere. If this Rush persists at its current rate, evidence from previous cycles indicates that solar maximum will occur in approximately early 2013. At lower latitudes, solar maximum previously occurred when the greatest number of Fe XIV emission regions* first reached approximately 20 latitude. Currently, the value of this parameter at 20 is approximately 0.15. Previous behavior of this parameter indicates that solar maximum should occur in approximately two years, or 2013. Thus, both techniques yield an expected time of solar maximum in early 2013.
*annual average number of Fe XIV emission features per day greater than 0.19


http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_512_4500.jpg


Slin dag. Sj dagsetningu og tma myndinni.

(UT = Universal Time sem er sama og slenskur staartmi).

Fjlda beintengdra mynda og ferla m sj hr Solar Reference Page.

Frttin dag hefur vaki athygli og er va. Sj til dmis: Hr. Hr. Hr. Hr.

national_geographic.jpg

National Geographic:

21:30


Listflug (myndband)...

landis_70_inv.jpg

a er ekki anna hgt en dst a leikni essa flugmanns...

Best er a smella myndina og njta fullri skjstr og me mestu upplausn.
Ekki gleyma a hafa hlji !

ess m geta a gripurinn er kninn rafmagni. Er me riggja fasa ristraumsmtor og Lithium Polymer rafhlum.
www.extremeflightrc.com

Ga helgi... Joyful



N hitamliggn fr gervihnttum (UAH ma 2011)...


msu-uah-may_2011_600w.jpg

essi ni ferill var a birtast vefsu Dr. Roy Spencer. Sj hr. Ferillinn snir mealhita lofthjps jarar rm 30 r, ea tmabilinu 1979 til loka mamnaar sastliinn. a er a segja, allan ann tma sem slkar mlingar fr gervihnttum hafa veri framkvmdar.

Grna lrtta lnan er mealtal sustu 30 ra og ferillinn frvik fr v mealtali.

Mlipunktar sustu tveggja mnaa eru innan raua hringsins lengst til hgri. Frviki fr 30 ra mealtalinu reyndist vera 0,13 grur C.


Sj skringar pistlinum fr 13. aprl s.l. hr.

Hve miki er 0,13 grur Celcius? a fer eftir v vi hva er mia. Lofthiti lkkar um svo sem 0,7 grur ef vi frum 100 metra upp. essi hitabreyting um 0,13 grur samsvarar v harmun sem nemur um 20 metrum.

En 0,7 grur eru v sem nst sama og s hkkun sem ori hefur sustu 150 rum, samtals af vldum nttrunnar og losun manna koltvsringi. S breyting hitastigi jafngildir v um 100 metrum h. Ekki er fjarri v a essi breyting um 0,7 grur jafngildi einnig um 100 km norur-suur.

Svona nokkurn vegin... Miki ea lti? Hummm... Errm

Flest af v sem er essari mynd hefi maur hefbundnum mlingum flokka undir suu (noise) ea flkt.

12:33


N tilraun vi rsarhskla rennir stoum undir kennirnar Henriks Svensmarks um hrif geimgeisla og slar skjafar - og ar me vntanlega hnatthlnun ea hnattklnun...

svensmark2.jpg

a er ori allnokku san skrifaur var pistill um kenningar HenriksSvensmarks um samband milli virkni slar og skjafars, og v kominn tmi tila skrifa sm uppfrslu, enda hafa frttir veri a berast utan r heimi.

Pistlahfundur hefur fylgst me Svensmark um hlfan annan ratug og skrifa nokkrapistla um mli:

Til upprifjunar er kenningin rstuttu og mjg einflduu mli essi:


Sk myndast annig a snileg vatnsgufan ttist rykgnum. Geimgeislar jnisera ea jna gas hloftunum me hjlp rafeinda. Jnirnar flytja hleslu yfir vatnsdropa sem draga a sr rykagnir. Rykagnirnar virka sem eins konar si sem fltir fyrir ttingu rakans. egar slin er venju virk, er slvindurinn jafnframt flugur. flugur slvindur skermar jrina af annig a minna ag geimgeislum berst til jarar. ess vegna verur heldur minna um sk og a hlnar. Sj nnari skringu hr.

Breytileg skjahula ir auvita breytilegt endurkast slarljss, annig a mismikill slarylur nr a skna jrina.

"Mikilvirkni slar -> mikill slvindur -> minni geimgeislar -> minna um sk-> minna endurkast skjanna og ar me meira slarljs sem berst til jarar -> hrra hitastig"

ea...

"Ltilvirkni slar -> ltill slvindur -> meiri geimgeislar -> meira um sk-> meira endurkast skjanna og ar me minna slarljs sem berst til jarar -> lgra hitastig"

Ef essi kenning reynist rtt, er hr komin stafesting hrifum slvindsins hitafar jarar, v a gefur augalei a minni skjahula veldur hlnun og fugt. Til vbtar essum beinu hrifum slvindsins eru hrif breytilegrar tgeislunar slar.

a er rtt a geta ess a hugtaki geimgeislar ea cosmic rays er hr dlti nkvmt. Eiginlega er um a ra agnastreymi en ekki geisla hefbundnum skilningi. Um 90% geimgeisla-agnanna eru rteindir ea prtnur, 9% helumkjarnar (alfa agnir) og 1% rafeindir ea elektrnur (beta agnir). Sj skringar Wikipedia hr. Geimgeislar ea Cosmic Rays er a oralag sem venjulega er nota. Geimgeislarnir eiga upptk sn ravddum geimsins og lenda lofthjpnum. Utan slkerfisins er styrkur geimgeislanna nokku stugur, en eir sem lenda jrinni hafa breytilegan styrk vegna hrifa slvindsins sem vinnur sem eins konar skjldur.

Svensmark setti fram kenningu sna lok sustu aldar. fyrstu var ger tiltlulega dr tilraun kjallara Dnsku geimrannsknarstofnunarinnar (tilraunin nefndist SKY), og n stendur yfir flkin tilraun hj CERN Sviss (tilraunin nefnist CLOUD). Fyrir feinum dgum var kynnt n tilraun sem fram fr rsarhskla, annig a tilraunirnar eru n ornar rjr.

A sjlfsgu skiptir niurstaa essara tilrauna grarmiklu mli fyrir vsindin. Reynist kenning Svensmark rtt, gti veri fundi orsakasamband milli virkni slar og hitafars jarar sem er mun flugra en breytingar heildar tgeislun slar. a er allt of snemmt a fullyra nokku og mjg vsindalegt a vera me getgtur, hvort sem er me ea mti. Full sta er a fylgjast me og skoa mli me opnum huga og n fordma...

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Tilefni essa pistils er fyrst og fremst a fyrir feinum dgum var tilkynnt um nja tilraun rsarhskla. Sj frtt ensku vef sklans hr, og dnsku hr. rdrtt r greininnim lesa vef Geophysical ResearchLetters.

vef hsklans stendur meal annars etta um tilraunina rsum:

"...With the new results just published in the recognised journalGeophysical Research Letters, scientists have succeeded for the first time in directly observing that the electrically charged particles coming from space and hitting the atmosphere at high speed contribute to creating the aerosols that are the prerequisites for cloud formation.

The more cloud cover occurring around the world, the lower the global temperature -and vice versa when there are fewer clouds. The number of particles from space vary from year to year - partly controlled by solar activity...."

Sj hrvital dnsku um essa nju tilraun:

Partikler pvirker skydannelse fr Science Media Lab.

Smelli hr, en ekki myndina.


skydannelse.jpg

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Af tilrauninni miklu hjCERN er a helst a frtta a fanga-niurstu er a vnta haust. Sj vital vi Jasper Kirkby. Smelli myndina til a horfa myndbandi.

Fyrir hugasmu: Hr er klukkutma lng n kynning tilrauninni CERN. essi mjg hugavera og heyrilega kynning er vel ess viri a hlusta s hana n. Dr. Jasper Kirkby sem leiir tilraunina CERN talar mjg skrt og setur efni fram skilmerkilegan htt:






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Dr. Roy Spencer loftslagsfringur hefur oft lst efasemdum um a kenning Svensmarks eigi vi rk a styjast. - En n hefur hann fengi bakanka:

Indirect Solar Forcing of Climate by Galactic Cosmic Rays: An Observational Estimate

May 19th, 2011

UPDATE (12:35 p.m. CDT 19 May 2011): revised corrections of CERES data for El Nino/La Nina effects.

While Ihave been skeptical of Svensmark's cosmic ray theory up until now, it looks like the evidence is becoming too strong for me to ignore. The following results will surely be controversial, and the reader should remember that what follows is not peer reviewed, and is only a preliminary estimate.


I've made calculations based upon satellite observations of how the global radiative energy balance has varied over the last 10 years (between Solar Max and Solar Min) as a result of variations in cosmic ray activity. The results suggest that the total (direct + indirect) solar forcing is at least 3.5 times stronger than that due to changing solar irradiance alone.


If this is anywhere close to being correct, it supports the claim that the sun has a much larger potential role (and therefore humans a smaller role) in climate change than what the "scientific consensus" states....
Meira hr...

(a er ekki algengt a sj vsindamenn skipta um skoun egar njar upplsingar koma fram :-)

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Vi bum svo eftir frttum fr CERN sem vntanlegar eru innan frra mnaa... Veri niurstur allra essara riggja tilrauna jkvar, .e. a lklegt s a geimgeislar mtair af slvindinum geti haft hrif skjafar, og ar me su hrif breytilegrar virkni slar hitafar jarar allnokkur, a er ekki tiloka a minnkandi slvirkni sem tt hefur sr sta undanfari, leii til nokkurrar klnunar lofthjpsins nstu rum. Um ar er allt of snemmt a fullyra nokku...

Bum bara og fylgjumst me og munum a nttran a til a koma okkur vart, -allt of snemmt er a vera me getgtur. Trum engu fyrr en stareyndir liggja fyrir...

Jafnvel niurstaa essara tilrauna veri jkv, er eftir a skoa mislegt betur. a er ekki ng a vita a essi hrif geti veri fyrir hendi, vi verum lka a vita hve mikil au eru...

Hver sem niurstaan verur, er etta fangi ekkingarleit manna...
Wink

Videnskab.dk 17. ma 2011: Kosmisk strling stter gang i skydannelse

"Great spirits have often encountered violent opposition

from weak minds."

Einstein

Vegna mistaka minna frst fyrir a samykkja allmargar athugasemdir vi fyrri frslur. a hefur n veri lagfrt og er beist afskunar klaufaskapnum.

Minnt er ritstjrnarstefnu essa bloggsvis. Sj hr. Sj einnig athugasemd undir hfundarmynd efst til vinstri essari vefsu.


Höfundur

Ágúst H Bjarnason
Ágúst H Bjarnason

Verkfr. hjá Verkís.
agbjarn-hjá-gmail.com

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