Bloggfrslur mnaarins, oktber 2011

Skgar gtu bundi meira CO2 en ur var tali...

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Frleg grein um skga birtist fyrir skmmu Science Daily vefnum. Samkvmt greininni virist sem skgurinn hafi meiri hfileika til a binda koltvsring en ur var tali. Greinin er hr.

tilrauninni, sem st yfir 12 r um 20 hektara landi, var styrkur koltvsrings umhverfis trjkrnurnar aukinn, auk ess sem nota var zon til a lkja eftir menguu lofti.

Auk ess sem tali er a auki magn koltvsrings hafi hrif til hkkunar hitastigs, virkar a sem burur vxt grurs, eins og fram kemur greininni sem birt er hr fyrir nean.

Fyrri rannsknir hfu gefi til kynna a essi hrif vxt trjnna vru tmabundin, ar sem a v kmi a plnturnar nu ekki ngu magni a kfnunarefni ea nitur r jarveginum.

ljs kom essari tilraun a vxtur trjnna hlst hraur allan tman sem rannsknin fr fram, og sustu 3 rin var vaxtarhrainn 26% meiri en samanburartrjnna sem fengu ekki auki magn koltvsrings.

Svo virist sem hfileiki trjnna til a vinna kfnunarefi r jarveginum hafi aukist, og einnig a rverur hafi skila aftur kfnunarefni hraar jarveginn me auknu magni laufa sem fllu af trjnum a hausti.

Heildarhrif zons skginn voru ltil, svo grurinn yldi a misvel. mislegt fleira frlegt kom fram tilrauninni og er vel ess viri a lesa allan greinarstfinn sem hr fylgir.

etta eru ngjulegar frttir fyrir skgrktarflk og einnig sem hyggjur hafa a hkkuu hitastigi jarar.

Myndin hr a ofan snir tilraunareitinn sem er 38 ekrur a str. Tilraunin st yfir runum 1997-2008

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http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111013153955.htm

Texti vi myndina hr a ofan: An aerial view of the 38-acre experimental forest in Wisconsin where U-M researchers and their colleagues continuously exposed birch, aspen and maple trees to elevated levels of carbon dioxide and ozone gas from 1997 through 2008. (Credit: David Karnosky, Michigan Technological University)

Future Forests May Soak Up More Carbon Dioxide Than Previously Believed

ScienceDaily (Oct. 13, 2011) North American forests appear to have a greater capacity to soak up heat-trapping carbon dioxide gas than researchers had previously anticipated.

As a result, they could help slow the pace of human-caused climate warming more than most scientists had thought, a U-M ecologist and his colleagues have concluded.

The results of a 12-year study at an experimental forest in northeastern Wisconsin challenge several long-held assumptions about how future forests will respond to the rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide blamed for human-caused climate change, said University of Michigan microbial ecologist Donald Zak, lead author of a paper published online this week in Ecology Letters.

"Some of the initial assumptions about ecosystem response are not correct and will have to be revised," said Zak, a professor at the U-M School of Natural Resources and Environment and the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology in the College of Literature, Science, and the Arts.

To simulate atmospheric conditions expected in the latter half of this century, Zak and his colleagues continuously pumped extra carbon dioxide into the canopies of trembling aspen, paper birch and sugar maple trees at a 38-acre experimental forest in Rhinelander, Wis., from 1997 to 2008.

Some of the trees were also bathed in elevated levels of ground-level ozone, the primary constituent in smog, to simulate the increasingly polluted air of the future. Both parts of the federally funded experiment -- the carbon dioxide and the ozone treatments -- produced unexpected results.

In addition to trapping heat, carbon dioxide is known to have a fertilizing effect on trees and other plants, making them grow faster than they normally would. Climate researchers and ecosystem modelers assume that in coming decades, carbon dioxide's fertilizing effect will temporarily boost the growth rate of northern temperate forests.

Previous studies have concluded that this growth spurt would be short-lived, grinding to a halt when the trees can no longer extract the essential nutrient nitrogen from the soil.

But in the Rhinelander study, the trees bathed in elevated carbon dioxide continued to grow at an accelerated rate throughout the 12-year experiment. In the final three years of the study, the CO2-soaked trees grew 26 percent more than those exposed to normal levels of carbon dioxide.

It appears that the extra carbon dioxide allowed trees to grow more small roots and "forage" more successfully for nitrogen in the soil, Zak said. At the same time, the rate at which microorganisms released nitrogen back to the soil, as fallen leaves and branches decayed, increased.

"The greater growth has been sustained by an acceleration, rather than a slowing down, of soil nitrogen cycling," Zak said. "Under elevated carbon dioxide, the trees did a better job of getting nitrogen out of the soil, and there was more of it for plants to use."

Zak stressed that growth-enhancing effects of CO2 in forests will eventually "hit the wall" and come to a halt. The trees' roots will eventually "fully exploit" the soil's nitrogen resources. No one knows how long it will take to reach that limit, he said.

The ozone portion of the 12-year experiment also held surprises.

Ground-level ozone is known to damage plant tissues and interfere with photosynthesis. Conventional wisdom has held that in the future, increasing levels of ozone would constrain the degree to which rising levels of carbon dioxide would promote tree growth, canceling out some of a forest's ability to buffer projected climate warming.

In the first few years of the Rhinelander experiment, that's exactly what was observed. Trees exposed to elevated levels of ozone did not grow as fast as other trees. But by the end of study, ozone had no effect at all on forest productivity.

"What happened is that ozone-tolerant species and genotypes in our experiment more or less took up the slack left behind by those who were negatively affected, and that's called compensatory growth," Zak said. The same thing happened with growth under elevated carbon dioxide, under which some genotypes and species fared better than others.

"The interesting take home point with this is that aspects of biological diversity -- like genetic diversity and plant species compositions -- are important components of an ecosystem's response to climate change," he said. "Biodiversity matters, in this regard."

Co-authors of the Ecology Letters paper were Kurt Pregitzer of the University of Idaho, Mark Kubiske of the U.S. Forest Service and Andrew Burton of Michigan Technological University. The work was funded by grants from the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Forest Service.

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N m auvita velta fyrir sr hvaa hrif aukinn koltvsringur loftinu hefur haft grur slandi. hrifin eru vntanlega jkv og hafa tt sinn tt v hve vel trjgrur hefur sprotti undanfari. Hlrra veurfar hefur einnig haft mikil hrif og e.t.v. minni gangur saufjr.

Allt hjlpast etta a vi a endurheimta skga slandi. a er ljst a grrinum lkar vel koltvsringinn, enda er hann undirstaa alls lfs jrinni.


Einn hfunda BEST skrsunnar loftslagsmlum sakar aalhfundinn um a villa um fyrir flki...

400px-curry_2006_200dpi.jpgrichard_muller.jpg

Ja hrna hr... S fheyri atburur hefur gerst a einn hfunda svokallarar BEST greinar sem kennd er vi Berkley hskla hefur saka aalhfundinn um a hafa vsvitandi beitt blekkingum egar skrslan var kynnt. (BEST = Berkley Earth Surface Temperature).

Um essa greinar hefur veri fjalla hr bloggsu Einars Sveinbjrnssonar og hr bloggsu Loftslag.is. Sjlfur fjallai g aeins um mli athugasemdum #6, #12, #13 og #18 bloggpistli Einars hr.

Aalhfundur skrslunnar er prfessor Richard Muller sem er elisfringur ma huga stjarnelisfri og starfar sem prfessor hj Berkeley hskla. Einn hfunda er prfessor Judith Curry sem er loftslagsfringur og veitir forstu Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences hj Georgia Institute of Technology. Vefsa Dr. Curry, Climate Etc.

Sj grein sem var a birtast vefsu Daily Mail, Mail Online:

rstuttur rdrttur r greininni sam nausynlegt er a lesa heild sinni me v a smella fyrirsgnina:

Scientist who said climate change sceptics had been proved wrong accused of hiding truth by colleague

By David Rose

Last updated at 5:41 AM on 30th October 2011


It was hailed as the scientific study that ended the global warming debate once and for all the research that, in the words of its director, proved you should not be a sceptic, at least not any longer.

Professor Richard Muller, of Berkeley University in California, and his colleagues from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures project team (BEST) claimed to have shown that the planet has warmed by almost a degree centigrade since 1950 and is warming continually....

...

But today The Mail on Sunday can reveal that a leading member of Prof Mullers team has accused him of trying to mislead the public by hiding the fact that BESTs research shows global warming has stopped.

Prof Judith Curry, who chairs the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Americas prestigious Georgia Institute of Technology, said that Prof Mullers claim that he has proven global warming sceptics wrong was also a huge mistake, with no scientific basis.

Prof Curry is a distinguished climate researcher with more than 30 years experience and the second named co-author of the BEST projects four research papers....

...

Prof Muller also wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal. It was here, under the headline The case against global warming scepticism, that he proclaimed there were good reasons for doubt until now.


Media storm: Prof Muller's claims received uncritical coverage in the media this week:

best_media_storm.jpgThis, too, went around the world, with The Economist, among many others, stating there was now little room for doubt.

Such claims left Prof Curry horrified.

Of course this isnt the end of scepticism, she said. To say that is the biggest mistake he [Prof Muller] has made. When I saw he was saying that I just thought, Oh my God.

In fact, she added, in the wake of the unexpected global warming standstill, many climate scientists who had previously rejected sceptics arguments were now taking them much more seriously.

...

Sj einnig grein um mli eftir Dr. David Whitehouse:
Best Confirms Global Temperature Standstill

a er rtt a rtta a etta ml fjallar um afer sem notu var til a kynna niurstur BEST og endurspeglast m.a. fyrirsgnunum sem myndin er af hr fyrir ofan, en mli fjallar ekki um au ggn sem notu voru. au eru agengileg netinu hverjum eim sem vill nota au til a skoa raunverulegar niurstur. Dr. Curry er sem sagt a gagnrna kynninguna, sem hn telur hafa gefi ranga mynd, srstaklega ar sem gefi er til kynna " end of skepticism og We see no evidence of global warming slowing down. a er ekki veri a gagnrna aferafrina sem vissulega er hugaver.

Bloggsa Dr. Judith Curry Climate Etc.

---

Mynd r greininni Mail Online gr:

best_-_mail_online.jpg

(Taki eftir a efri ferillinn nr yfir 100 ra tmabil, en s neri 10 ra tmabil)

essi mynd fylgdi BEST kynningunni um daginn:

Etv. mtti kalla svona mynd BEST Propaganda Wink

best-propaganda.jpg

Greinarnar umrddu eru hr:

Um BEST Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth_Surface_Temperature

---

Uppfrt klukkan 13:00, 30. oktber.

Dr. Judith Curry fjallar um greinina Mail Online hr. Hn skrifar:

Last week I spoke with David Rose of the Mail about the BEST publicity and PR, and Richard Mullers public statements. The resulting article is [here].

I discussed some concerns I had about the BEST PR on this previous thread.

In David Roses article, the direct quotes attributed to me are correct.

To set the record straight, some of the other sentiments attributed to me are not quite right, I will discuss these here.

Hiding the truth in the title is definitely misleading, I made it pretty clear that there was uncertainty in the data itself, but the bigger issues are to analyze the data and interpret it. I made it clear that this was not a straightforward and simple thing to do.

I told Rose that I was puzzled my Mullers statements, particularly about end of skepticism and also We see no evidence of global warming slowing down.

I did not say that the affair had to be compared to the notorious Climategate scandal two years ago, this is indirectly attributed to me. When asked specifically about the graph that apparently uses a 10 year running mean and ends in 2006, we discussed hide the decline, but I honestly cant recall if Rose or I said it first. I agree that the way the data is presented in the graph hides the decline. There is NO comparison of this situation to Climategate. Muller et al. have been very transparent in their methods and in making their data publicly available, which is highly commendable.

My most important statement IMO is this: To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate. My main point was that this is a very good data set, the best we currently have available for land surface temperatures. To me, this should have been the big story: a new comprehensive data set, put together by a team of physicists and statisticians with private funds. Showing preliminary results is of course fine, but overselling them at this point was a mistake IMO.

I arrived in Santa Fe yesterday. More on the Conference in a forthcoming post. Muller and Rohde will be at the conference, I will be meeting them for the first time and I will try to understand what is going on here.

And finally, this is NOT a new scandal. An important new data set has been released. Some new papers have been posted for comments, which are not surprisingly drawing criticism and controversy. The main issue seems to be Richard Mullers public statements. All this does not constitute a new scientific scandal in any way.

My continued collaboration on this project will be discussed this week with Muller and Rohde. My joining this group was somewhat unusual, in that I did not know any of these people prior to being invited to join their team (although I very quickly figured out that they were highly reputable scientists). I thought the project was a great idea, and I still do, but it currently has a tarnish on it. Lets see what we can do about this.

Nnar hr


Ja hrna hr, er eitthva miki deiluml uppsiglingu?...


Hvers vegna hefur hnatthlnunin stai sta a sem af er essari ld...?

montserrat-ahb.jpg

Vsindamenn spyrja:

"Hvernig i skpunum stendur v, a rtt fyrir saukna losun manna koltvsringi, hefur hlnun jarar nnast stai sta essari ld ???"

etta er spurning sem brennur vrum margra vsindamanna. Paul Voosen, sem margir ekkja af gu, en hann hefur skrifa fjlda gra greina, m.a. Scientific American, skrifai nlega skemmtilega og frlega grein sem hann nefnir Provoked scientists try to explain lag in global warming. Greinina m lesa heild sinni hr. Greinin er nokku lng og hefur Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. prfessor teki saman rdrtt ar sem aalatrii greinarinnar eru feitletru. a auveldar lesturinn. Sj Candid Comments From Climate Scientists vefsu Pielke. Dr. Judith Curry pfessor loftslagsfrum fjallar um greinina hr bloggi snu og er me msar gar athugasemdir, bendingar og spurningar til nokkurra essara visindamanna. Hn veitir forstu School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences vi Georgia Institute of Technology.

essari lngu grein Paul Voosen fjallar hann um hvernig fjlmargir ekktir vsindamenn hafa reynt a tskra etta hik, en ljst er a allir eru eir meira og minna sammla og engin einhlt skring essu hefur fengist. a er greinilegt a um etta fyrirbri er ekki neitt samdma lit vsindamanna ea "scientific concensus" eins og a heitir fnni tlensku.

a er arfi a endursegja a sem stendur umrddri grein, en vsindamennirnir sem koma vi sgu eru essir (mynd af nokkrum eirra er nest sunni):


John Barnes
Jean-Paul Vernier
Kevin Trenberth
Susan Solomon
Jim Hansen
John Daniel
Ben Santer
Judith Lean
Graeme Stephens
Robert Kaufmann
Martin Wild
Daniel Jacobs

eir hafa reynt, hver sinn htt, a kenna msu um essa stnun sem var strax byrjun aldarinnar. Meal annars hafa eir nefnt til sgu mguleikann loftbornum gnum fr nokkrum meal flugum eldgosum, ar meal fr eldfjallinu MontSerrat sem prir pistilinn, en essa mynd tk g desember sastlinum egar g var vi strf eyju ar skammt fr Vestur-Indum ea Karabska hafinu, .e. Guadeloupe. Sar beindu menn sjnum a kolaorkuverum Kna, fyrribrum hafinu, srstaklega Kyrrahafi, og jafnvel slinni sem er j uppspretta hitans. Menn hafa lagt hfui bleyti og hugsa stft, en allt kemur fyrir ekki eins og lesa m um greininni Candid Comments From Climate Scientists.

Kannski er etta bara hik og kannski mun hitastig lofthjpsins taka a hkka njan leik innan skamms, en getur veri a hmarkinu s n og hitinn taki a lkka aftur? Auvita m ekki hugsa svona, v a er vst samdma lit vsindamanna a lofthjpurinn muni halda fram a hitna um komin r...


myndinni hr fyrir nean, sem fengin er a lni hr hj Ole Humlum prfessor vi Oslarhskla, m greinilega sj etta hik sem var eftir hraa hkkun hitastigs tveim ratugum fyrir aldamtin.

hadcrut3_globalmonthlytempsince1958_andco2.gif

Raui ferillinn er aukning koltvsrings andrmsloftinu. Bli ferillinn snir breytingar lofthita fr v er mlingar koltvsringi hfust Mauna Loa fjalli Hava eyjum ri 1958. Gra strikaa lnan afmarkar rj tmabil ar sem hitinn fer aeins lkkandi, san hkkandi og a lokum sst hiki fr sustu aldamtum (ea 2002) sem kemur mnnum opna skjldu.

"Indeed, many of the scientists sorting out the warming hiatus disagree with one another -- in a chummy, scholarly way. Judith Lean, the solar scientist, finds Kaufmann's work unpersuasive and unnecessarily critical of China. Kaufmann finds Solomon's stratosphere studies lacking in evidence. Hansen and Trenberth can't agree on a budget" stendur nearlega grein Paul Voosen.

vitum vr a... ea llu heldur, vitum ekki.
Skiljum hvorki upp n niur, enda varla von egar essir
hmenntuu vsindamenn standa gati
.
Errm


aerosols_650cream_1118279.jpg


Sjvarbor hefur fari lkkandi undanfari r...


Sjvarbor

a kemur auvita nokku vart a sjvarbor skuli hafa lkka undanfari, sta ess a hkka. Sjlfsagt er ekkert elilegt vi a og eru etta bara duttlungar nttrunnar.

Bloggarinn hefur ur fjalla um essi ml hr og hr fyrir tveim rum og kominn tmi til a birta njustu mliniurstur. Ekki skulu dregnar neinar lyktanir, en tlurnar tala snu mli.

Myndin hr fyrir ofan er unnin eftir ggnum fr University of Colorado, og fengin a lni fr vefsu eirra. Um er a ra sustu gervihnatta-mliggn sem birt hafa veri opinberlega.

Myndin hr fyrir nean er unnin r smu mliggnum, en hn snir breytinguna fr ri til rs.

Vi getum lti tlvuna bera saman mlingar milli ra. Fundi mismuninn sjvarstu t.d. fyrir jn r og jn fyrra, ma r og ma fyrra. Koll af kolli, r fyrir r. annig getum vi einfaldan htt lti t.d. Excel sna rlega hkkun (ea lkkun) sjvarbors tpa tvo ratugi.

Meal breytingin (hkkun) yfir allt tmabili er um 3 mm ri. augnablikinu er ferillinn kominn vel niur fyrir nlli, .e. tluver lkkun sasta ri, sem augnablikinu nemur 4 mm rlegri lkkun.

Ef a lkum ltur, ferillinn eftir a sna vi einhvern tman. Tminn einn mun leia a ljs.

dealevelchangeoct2011.gif

Taki eftir ferlinum lengst til hgri.
Hann er kominn vel niur fyrir nlli.

Myndin er fengin af sunni www.climate4you.com, kaflanum Oceans. Pfessor Ole Humlum vi Oslarhskla sr um suna.
tskringarnar hr fyrir nean fylgja myndinni. Menn geta sjlfir stt frumggnin og endurteki teiknun ferlanna me Excel ef eir vantreysta essum myndum.

Annual change of global sea level since late 1992 according to the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research at University of Colorado at Boulder. The data have been prepared by Dr. R. Steven Nerem (nerem@colorado.edu) and Dr. Eric W. Leuliette (leuliett@colorado.edu), and are described by Leuliette et al. (2004). The annual global sea level change is calculated as the difference between the average global sea level the last 12 months and the previous 12 months. The thick line represents the simple running 3 year average. The data shown above include the seasonal signal, and have been prepared using the inverted barometer technique (Inverted Barometer = -9.948 * (1013.3 - global average pressure). The inverted barometer does not have much apparent effect on the global mean sea level because the ocean as a whole is not compressible. Data from the TOPEX/Poseidon mission have been used before 2002, and data from the Jason-1 mission (satellite launched December 2001) after 2002. Time is shown along the x-axis as fractions of calendar years. Last diagram update: 9 October 2011.

The 12-month global sea level change display significant variations over an aproximate 4 year period. These variations are superimposed on a general falling trend. Overall, since initiation of these satellite measurements, the 12-month sea level rise has decreased from about 4 mm/yr to about 3 mm/yr.

Hr er svo mynd fr smu vefsu sem er sambrileg myndinni sem er efst sunni:

usealeveloct2011.gif

Breyting sjvarstu undanfarna tvo ratugi.
Ferillinn er farinn a sveigja niurvi lengst til hgri.

Sj Wikipedia: Current Sea level Rise. ar m sj ferla sem n yfir lengri tma.



Höfundur

Ágúst H Bjarnason
Ágúst H Bjarnason

Verkfr. hjá Verkís.
agbjarn-hjá-gmail.com

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