Einn hfunda BEST skrsunnar loftslagsmlum sakar aalhfundinn um a villa um fyrir flki...

400px-curry_2006_200dpi.jpgrichard_muller.jpg

Ja hrna hr... S fheyri atburur hefur gerst a einn hfunda svokallarar BEST greinar sem kennd er vi Berkley hskla hefur saka aalhfundinn um a hafa vsvitandi beitt blekkingum egar skrslan var kynnt. (BEST = Berkley Earth Surface Temperature).

Um essa greinar hefur veri fjalla hr bloggsu Einars Sveinbjrnssonar og hr bloggsu Loftslag.is. Sjlfur fjallai g aeins um mli athugasemdum #6, #12, #13 og #18 bloggpistli Einars hr.

Aalhfundur skrslunnar er prfessor Richard Muller sem er elisfringur ma huga stjarnelisfri og starfar sem prfessor hj Berkeley hskla. Einn hfunda er prfessor Judith Curry sem er loftslagsfringur og veitir forstu Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences hj Georgia Institute of Technology. Vefsa Dr. Curry, Climate Etc.

Sj grein sem var a birtast vefsu Daily Mail, Mail Online:

rstuttur rdrttur r greininni sam nausynlegt er a lesa heild sinni me v a smella fyrirsgnina:

Scientist who said climate change sceptics had been proved wrong accused of hiding truth by colleague

By David Rose

Last updated at 5:41 AM on 30th October 2011


It was hailed as the scientific study that ended the global warming debate once and for all the research that, in the words of its director, proved you should not be a sceptic, at least not any longer.

Professor Richard Muller, of Berkeley University in California, and his colleagues from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures project team (BEST) claimed to have shown that the planet has warmed by almost a degree centigrade since 1950 and is warming continually....

...

But today The Mail on Sunday can reveal that a leading member of Prof Mullers team has accused him of trying to mislead the public by hiding the fact that BESTs research shows global warming has stopped.

Prof Judith Curry, who chairs the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Americas prestigious Georgia Institute of Technology, said that Prof Mullers claim that he has proven global warming sceptics wrong was also a huge mistake, with no scientific basis.

Prof Curry is a distinguished climate researcher with more than 30 years experience and the second named co-author of the BEST projects four research papers....

...

Prof Muller also wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal. It was here, under the headline The case against global warming scepticism, that he proclaimed there were good reasons for doubt until now.


Media storm: Prof Muller's claims received uncritical coverage in the media this week:

best_media_storm.jpgThis, too, went around the world, with The Economist, among many others, stating there was now little room for doubt.

Such claims left Prof Curry horrified.

Of course this isnt the end of scepticism, she said. To say that is the biggest mistake he [Prof Muller] has made. When I saw he was saying that I just thought, Oh my God.

In fact, she added, in the wake of the unexpected global warming standstill, many climate scientists who had previously rejected sceptics arguments were now taking them much more seriously.

...

Sj einnig grein um mli eftir Dr. David Whitehouse:
Best Confirms Global Temperature Standstill

a er rtt a rtta a etta ml fjallar um afer sem notu var til a kynna niurstur BEST og endurspeglast m.a. fyrirsgnunum sem myndin er af hr fyrir ofan, en mli fjallar ekki um au ggn sem notu voru. au eru agengileg netinu hverjum eim sem vill nota au til a skoa raunverulegar niurstur. Dr. Curry er sem sagt a gagnrna kynninguna, sem hn telur hafa gefi ranga mynd, srstaklega ar sem gefi er til kynna " end of skepticism og We see no evidence of global warming slowing down. a er ekki veri a gagnrna aferafrina sem vissulega er hugaver.

Bloggsa Dr. Judith Curry Climate Etc.

---

Mynd r greininni Mail Online gr:

best_-_mail_online.jpg

(Taki eftir a efri ferillinn nr yfir 100 ra tmabil, en s neri 10 ra tmabil)

essi mynd fylgdi BEST kynningunni um daginn:

Etv. mtti kalla svona mynd BEST Propaganda Wink

best-propaganda.jpg

Greinarnar umrddu eru hr:

Um BEST Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth_Surface_Temperature

---

Uppfrt klukkan 13:00, 30. oktber.

Dr. Judith Curry fjallar um greinina Mail Online hr. Hn skrifar:

Last week I spoke with David Rose of the Mail about the BEST publicity and PR, and Richard Mullers public statements. The resulting article is [here].

I discussed some concerns I had about the BEST PR on this previous thread.

In David Roses article, the direct quotes attributed to me are correct.

To set the record straight, some of the other sentiments attributed to me are not quite right, I will discuss these here.

Hiding the truth in the title is definitely misleading, I made it pretty clear that there was uncertainty in the data itself, but the bigger issues are to analyze the data and interpret it. I made it clear that this was not a straightforward and simple thing to do.

I told Rose that I was puzzled my Mullers statements, particularly about end of skepticism and also We see no evidence of global warming slowing down.

I did not say that the affair had to be compared to the notorious Climategate scandal two years ago, this is indirectly attributed to me. When asked specifically about the graph that apparently uses a 10 year running mean and ends in 2006, we discussed hide the decline, but I honestly cant recall if Rose or I said it first. I agree that the way the data is presented in the graph hides the decline. There is NO comparison of this situation to Climategate. Muller et al. have been very transparent in their methods and in making their data publicly available, which is highly commendable.

My most important statement IMO is this: To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate. My main point was that this is a very good data set, the best we currently have available for land surface temperatures. To me, this should have been the big story: a new comprehensive data set, put together by a team of physicists and statisticians with private funds. Showing preliminary results is of course fine, but overselling them at this point was a mistake IMO.

I arrived in Santa Fe yesterday. More on the Conference in a forthcoming post. Muller and Rohde will be at the conference, I will be meeting them for the first time and I will try to understand what is going on here.

And finally, this is NOT a new scandal. An important new data set has been released. Some new papers have been posted for comments, which are not surprisingly drawing criticism and controversy. The main issue seems to be Richard Mullers public statements. All this does not constitute a new scientific scandal in any way.

My continued collaboration on this project will be discussed this week with Muller and Rohde. My joining this group was somewhat unusual, in that I did not know any of these people prior to being invited to join their team (although I very quickly figured out that they were highly reputable scientists). I thought the project was a great idea, and I still do, but it currently has a tarnish on it. Lets see what we can do about this.

Nnar hr


Ja hrna hr, er eitthva miki deiluml uppsiglingu?...


Sasta frsla | Nsta frsla

Athugasemdir

1 Smmynd: Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson

essi skrsla tlar greinilega a valda "efasemdamnnum" hfuverk. Kannski erfitt a stta sig vi a hlnunin er veruleiki og er yfirstandandi. g get ekki betur s en a t.d. sur eins og WUWT hafi loga rsum Muller. a var kannski ekki ru a bast - a kemur mr heldur ekki miki vart a David Rose ( Daily mail) hafi teki etta upp ennan htt, enda frgur "efasemdamaur" sem sjlfsagt langar til a eitthva s til tilhfulausum vangaveltum um a hnattrn hlnun hafi stoppa, ea eins og hann orar a "global warming has stopped"

J ekkert ntt undir slinni eim mlatilbnai hj David Rose og Daily Mail - sj t.d. <a href="http://www.loftslag.is/?p=12098">Vsindi gapastokk</a> ar sem m.a. er fari yfir tilhfulausan mlatilbna og rangtlkanir Daily Mail varandi hnattrna hlnun fr 1995...

Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 30.10.2011 kl. 14:50

2 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Svatli:

Ef fer vefsu BEST...

http://www.berkeleyearth.org/analysis.php

skir ar ggnin sem eru llum agengileg...

ltur san Excel teikna feril fyrir sasta ratug, sst a sem flestir vita, en margir eru samt afneitun yfir, .e. a hitastigi hefur stai sta allan ennan tma, .e. svosem ratug.

a m auvita deila um fr hvaa tma er rtt a mia vi, en maur er nokku ruggur ef mia er vi ri 2002, svo sumir nefni 1998. a finnst mr varla sanngjarnt vegna El-Nino/L-Nina sveiflunnar miklu.

etta er samrmi vi ferlana sem vi deildum um sasta pistli, .e. hvort stnun ea hik hafi ori breytingu hitastigi a sem lii er af 21. ldinni.

Feril sem gerur er svona m sj hr fyrir nean. a arf ekki neina reglustiku til a sj hver leitnin er. (Letri er smtt, en ferillinn nr fr 2001 til rsins r).

llu smilega smakru flki hltur a blskra hvernig Richard A. Muller kynnti niursturnar fyrir skmmu og hvernig fjlmilar gleyptu a gagnrnislaust. Hva gekk prfessor Muller eiginlega til? etta er auvita verst hans sjfs vegna.

Einum mehfunda hans, Dr Judith Curry, var greinilega einnig misboi, enda er hn mjg smakr vsindamaur.

http://agbjarn.blog.is/users/fa/agbjarn/img/best-whitehouse-600w.jpg

--- --- ---

Meal annarra ora Svatli. Vissir a prfessor Richard Muller er margt til lista lagt. Meal annars hann fyrirtki sem nefnist Muller & Associates. www.mullerandassociates.com

Power and Energy, Climate Change, Profitable Sustainability - Impartial Expertise for Government and Business
"We know that in order to be effective, solutions must be sustainable&#133; and we know that for businesses, sustainable solutions must be profitable as well".

Auvita er g ekkert a amast vi essu framtaki hans...

---

Muller kom fyrir ingnefd Bandarkjaings s.l. vor (The Science, Space and Technology Committee of theHouse Of Representatives) og hafi meal annars etta fram a fra:
&#147;Without the efforts of Anthony Watts and his team, we would have only a series of anecdotal images of poor temperature stations, and we would not be able to evaluate the integrity of the data. This is a case in which scientists receiving no government funding did work crucial to understanding climate change. Similarly for the work done by Steve McIntyre. Their &#147;amateur&#148; science is not amateur in quality; it is true science, conducted with integrity and high standards.&#148;

Vinur okkar Antony Watts hafi lti Muller f mis ggn trnai sem drg vinnslu varandi Surfacestations.org verkefni og sendi Muller brf Response_to_Muller_testimony og einnig Clarification on BEST submitted to the House. etta skrir kannski mislegt.

---

Smakr maur eins og ert Svatli, hltur a sj a einhvers staar er makur mysunni. Hva hkk sptunni egar Muller kynnti niursturnar? Hvers vegna l honum svona miki ? Hvers vegna kynnti hann niursturnar me fugum formerkjum, annig a mehfundi hans Dr. Curry br illilega?

Sjlfum ykir mr etta ml hi undarlegasta. Niursturnar koma mr hreint ekkert vart, eins og fram hefur komi ur, enda stafesta r a sem vita var um hkkun hitastigs sustu ld og san stnun sem var fyrir ratug og stendur enn.

v miur er nokkrum spurningum enn svara, eins og til dmis hve str ttur nttrunnar annars vegar og mannsins hins vegar er.

Einhver lkti niurstum BEST ann veg, a etta vri hlisttt v a sett hefi veri laggirnar nefnd til a rannsaka Vatkani og hn, eftir miklar og flknar rannsknir, komist a eirri niurstu a Pfinn vri kalskur.

gst H Bjarnason, 30.10.2011 kl. 16:53

3 Smmynd: Hskuldur Bi Jnsson

"Efasemda"masknan er komin af sta a sverta Muller - manninn sem "efasemdamenn" hldu a vri me eim lii - etta er raun fyndi og skrti a skulir sj ig kninn til a taka tt essu gst.

Hskuldur Bi Jnsson, 30.10.2011 kl. 17:37

4 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Eina sem g hef t Muller a setja er kjnaleg framsetning hans egar hann kynnti BEST. Ruglai blessaa frttamennina rminu, og ar me fleiri. Skemmdi mest fyrir sjlfum sr.


ar sem hann hefur birt ggnin, nokku sem arir mttu taka til fyrirmyndar, er n hgt a sj svart hvtu hva felst BEST. a er alls ekki a sama og kom fram kynningunni um daginn.

Ggnin og aferafrina hef g ekkert t a setja. a er margt jkvtt BEST, anna en a sem g skrifai upphafi essarar athugasemdar.

gst H Bjarnason, 30.10.2011 kl. 19:00

5 Smmynd: Vilhjlmur Eyrsson

Hefur nokkur teki eftir v a Muller essi er alls ekki veurfringur ea loftslagsfringur, heldur stjarnelisfringur eins og James Hansen?

Vilhjlmur Eyrsson, 30.10.2011 kl. 22:19

6 Smmynd: Hskuldur Bi Jnsson

a ltur t fyrir a Curry hafi bara veri me kjnaskap og skilji ekki tlfri - sj t.d. frslu fr Tamino:Judith Curry Opens Mouth, Inserts Foot

Hskuldur Bi Jnsson, 31.10.2011 kl. 08:58

7 Smmynd: Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson

Rangtlkunum "efasemdamanna" virist ekki loki varandi etta ml, eins og kemur fram greiningu Tamino, eru punktar arna inni sem ekki ttu a vera a. Kannski erfitt fyrir "efasemdamenn" a skilja a sasti ratugur var s hljasti san mlingar hfust og a a virist engin klnun vera spilunum (hva sem lur hugsanlegum nttrulegum sveiflum, sem virast vera a rugla "efasemdamenn" rminu). Ef treikningurinn er gerur fyrir rtt rman ratug sta ca. 9 ra (sem er gert grafinu fr Daily Mail og gst endurbirtir hr a ofan) og 2 sustu gildunum sleppt (au eru vntanlega villur ggnunum hvort sem er - alla vega aprl 2010), kemur t gildi 0,27C hkkun hitastigs ratug - sj nnar tengilinn sem Hski setti inn. En a er hkkun hitastigs, en ekki klnun ea stopp hnatthlnuninni eins og "efasemdamenn" vilja vera lta...sj grafi hr undir:

Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 31.10.2011 kl. 18:20

8 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Eins og g skrifai athugasemd #6 hr, "held g a a s best a ba me a dma essa rannskn ar til greinarnar hafa veri ritrndar. Mr finnst a hafa veri fljtfrni af prfessor Muller a rjka me etta fjlmila strax ur en niurstur ritrni liggja fyrir". Vi a tla g a standa og tek v ekki tt essum umrum.

Tamino sem nefnir veit g ekki deili . Er etta dulnefni? Hann er vafalaust ekki s sami Tamino og g kannast vi og er skotinn stri stelpu sem heitir Pamina ;-)

g efast ekki um hfileika Dr. Judith Curry prfessors vi Georgia Institute of Technology. Hn veitir ar forstu (chair) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. ess m geta a Georgia Tech er metinn sem 24. besti hskli heimsvsu. g held a ritaskr Dr. Curry sni okkur hn veit snu viti: http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/onlinepapers.html

Sem sagt, mr ykir a hsta mta venjulegt a kynna niurstur etta viamikilla rannskna me miklu brambolti og hllumh, ur en greinarnar hafa veri ritrndar, og n ess a lta mehfund (Dr. Curry) vita. a er mikill amatrabragur essu llu saman. g hef ori ess var a Hskuldur og Sveinn Atli hafa iulega gert krfur til ess a vitna s til ritrndra vsindagreina, og held g rtt s a fara annig a n og ba ar til ryki sem yrla hefur veri upp hefur n a setjast.

(a er rtt a a komi fram a g fylgist ekki me bessari bloggsu vinnutma, ea ca milli kl. 8 og 18).

gst H Bjarnason, 31.10.2011 kl. 18:27

Bta vi athugasemd

Ekki er lengur hgt a skrifa athugasemdir vi frsluna, ar sem tmamrk athugasemdir eru liin.

Höfundur

Ágúst H Bjarnason
Ágúst H Bjarnason

Verkfr. hjá Verkís.
agbjarn-hjá-gmail.com

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