Bloggfrslur mnaarins, janar 2010

Litlir vinir lkjarbakka...



essum vinum mtti g einn fagran haustdag linu ri. Sumri var teki a halla og vetur nnd. Einhver undarleg r hvldi yfir llu eftir amstur sumarsins sem hafi veri einstaklega milt og fallegt. Eiginlega kom a vart hve spakir essi fallegu stlpuu heiluungar voru rbakkanum. Engu var lkara en eir knnuust vi mig og vissu a ekkert vri a ttast, risinn g vri svo sem sundfalt yngri en eir. Vissulega voru a ekki bara tveir vinir sem arna hittust rbakkanum fallega lok sumars, heldur rr vinir sem nutu ess a vera til.

Uppfrt 31. jan og 10. feb: Sj athugaemdir. Lklega eru etta stlpair luungar en ekki aunutittlingar eins og fyrst st textanum en hefur n veri leirtt :-)


Fuglavefurinn

Myndin er tekin 4. oktber 2009 vi Almennings Blskgabygg me CANON EOS 400D / Canon 17-85 mm IS. Ramminn er gerur me Photoshop Elements 8. Myndina m stkka me v a tvsmella hana.


Er n sld yfirvofandi? - Kenning Milankovitch...

milankovitch.jpga getur veri frlegt a skoa hvaa hugmyndir menn hafa um veurfar fyrir ralngu, og hvernig menn hafa reynt a skra stur fyrir grarmiklum loftslagsbeytingum sem valdi hafa sldum og hlskeium vxl.

( svo a losun manna CO2 og meint hnatthlnum af vldum ess s miki hitaml, fjallar essi pistill alls ekki um slkt. Lesendur eru benir um a hafa a huga).

Fyrir um 12 rum, ri 1998, "bloggai" pistilshfundur um hrif slar o.fl. veurfar. essi langi pistill "CO2 - Er jrin a hitna? - Ekki er allt sem snist" byrjar hr. og heldur san fram 9. sum alls. Einn kaflinn nefnist "hrif innbyris afstu jarar og slar hitastig. saldir og nnur ran. Rannsknir Grnlandsjkli" og er hgt a komast inn hann hr. a sem hr er birt er hluti ess kafla. Hafa verur huga a essum gamla pistli hefur lti sem ekkert veri breytt rman ratug, annig a margar vefkrkjur eru virkar.

Hr eftir er styttur tdrttur r essum kafla vefsunnar sem m.a. fjallar um kenningar Milankowitch. Gamli textinn er me brnum lit.

Allur kaflinn um Milankowitch er hr.


Myndin hr a ofan er af Milutin Milankovitch (1879-1958) sem var serbneskur verkfringur og jarelisfringur. (Hann er reyndar stundum titlaur strfringur ea stjrnufringur). Hann er ekktastur fyrir kenningar snar um orsakir mikilla kuldaskeia sem koma me um 100 sund ra millibili.

(a er svo anna ml, a a er dltil nkvmni a tala um essar saldir, v eiginlega lifum vi hlskeii alvru saldar, ea meginsaldar (Sj Icehouse/Hothouse ea Icehouse/Greenhouse), sem skiptist um 100.000 ra kuldaskei og 10.000 ra hlskei. Kuldaskeiin, sem vi leyfum okkur a kalla meginsaldir, eru v stand sem varir kannsk 100 milljnir ra ea svo. essum pistli ltum vi ori "sld" standa fyrir 100.000 ra kuldaskeiin eins og gamla pistlinum, enda er a samrmi vi hef).

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Gamli pistillinn fr 1998 (styttur):

hrif innbyris afstu jarar og slar hitastig.
saldir og nnur ran
Rannsknir Grnlandsjkli.

(Sasti hlutinn er aeins frumtextanum)


ri 1941 setti strfringurinn Milutin Milankovitch fram kenningu sem skrt getur hvers vegna mikil klnun verur me tiltlulega lngu millibili. Hann reiknai t samanlg hrif breytinga mndulhalla (obliquity, 41.000 ra sveifla), mndulveltu (precession, sbr. skopparakringlu, 19-21.000 ra sveifla) og sporskjulgun brautar jarar umhverfis slu (eccentricity, 100.000 ra sveifla).

Niurstaan snir hvenr lkur eru kldum og heitum tmabilum, og a kuldaskeium f stair 60N aeins sama varma fr slinni (insolation) og stair 80N f n!

hrif mndulveltu og mndulhalla gera a a verkum, a anna slagi hallar jrin lti mti slu a sumri til, og verur sumarhitinn [ norurslum] v lgur.

Sari rannsknir sna a fjldi smrri hrifa hefur hrif heildarmyndina, en kenning Milankovitch er samt sem ur mjg hugaver og vel ekkt.

Kenning Milankowitch:

milankowitch-ahb_edited-1_954529.jpg
Ferillinn myndinni nr 200.000 r aftur tmann og 100.000 r fram tmann


Kenning Milutin Milankovitch um stur salda er vel ekkt. Me treikningum er hgt a finna mismunandi hitunarhrif slar norurhvel jarar. Mndulhalli, mndulvelta og braut jarar breytast me tmanum.

myndinni hr a ofan sjum vi hvernig essir rr ttir leggjast saman og mynda samsetta ferilinn sem er nest. Tmaskalinn nr 200.000 r aftur tmann og 100.000 r fram tmann. (Lrtti sinn er merktur: Wtt fermetra 60N)

Jja, hvenr megum vi eiga von nstu sld samkvmt essari kenningu?

Eins og mrgum er kunnugt, virist sem saldir hafi skolli me litlum fyrirvara aeins nokkrum ratugum. Rannsknir borkjrnum fr Grnlandsjkli hafa leitt etta ljs. Getur veri a slin hafi komi ar nrri og hjlpa til vi a setja ferli af sta me langvarandi kuldakasti sama tma og afstaa jarar og slar var hagst samkvmt lkani Milankovitch?


Hva ber framtin skauti sr, hlnun ea klnun?....
Nttrulegar breytingar, sem eru vel ekktar, hafa vafalaust ekki stvast. Vi ekkjum vel hagst tmabil jarsgunni, me smvgilegum hitasveiflum upp vi og kldum tmabilum ess milli. Vi ekkjum einnig miklar saldir, sem koma me nokku reglulegu millibili.

Fyrir um 1000 rum var miki gri heiminum. a st aeins tiltlulega stuttan tma (~200 r). San tk vi langt tmabil me nokku kldu veurfari; "Litla sldin". Rannsknir slstjrnum, sem lkjast okkar sl, gefa til kynna a tmabil ar sem slin er lg ("Maunder minimum"), eru algeng fyrirbri. Stjarnelisfringar hafa alvru vara vi v a ntt "Maunder minimum" geti hafist okkar sl hvenr sem er, jafnvel nstu ld. a ir ntt kuldakast og mikinn hafs umhverfis sland. mundi auki magn CO2 andrmsloftinu hafa krkomin hrif hitastig til a vinna mti essu. a er a segja, ef hrif CO2 til hkkunar hitastigs reynast ngileg.

Raunverulegar saldir koma me nokku reglulegu millibili. Vi essu getum vi ekkert gert. Bara bei eftir nstu sld!
S liti til lengri tma er vst a n sld komi og landi hverfi undir s. Svo virist sem hlindaskei, eins og n rkir, su fremur undantekning, og a sld s elilegra stand. Vi sjum a ferlinum, sem nr yfir 900.000 r, a hitastigi er yfirleitt lgra en n dgum (lrtta lnan), og oft miklu lgra.

Vel getur veri a vi sum a nlgast lok nverandi hlindaskeis, sem egar hefur stai yfir um 10.000 r. Ef til vill eru ekki nema nokkrar aldir til nstu saldar. Ef til vill fein sund r.

( nesta ferilinn vantar sstu ratugina og tti ferillinn a rsa ar. Vi erum a skoa tmabil
sem nr yfir nstum milljn r, svo a skiptir litlu mli. Vi hfum hr huga megindrttunum, en ekki smatrium. Ferillinn er uphaflega fr IPCC 1990).

Myndin snir strum drttum hitafar sustu 900.000 ra. Strikaa vimiunarlnan er sett hitastig, sem var um 1900. Oftast hefur veri mun kaldara en . Taki eftir, a hitasveiflurnar eru miklu meiri en virist vi fyrstu sn. Hitaskalinn nr yfir aeins 2 grur nesta ferlinum, en 7-8 grur efri ferlunum.

egar allt er liti, getum vi ekki anna en veri akklt nttrunni fyrir a hve mjkum hndum hn fer um okkur essa ratugina.

--- --- ---

Meira hr: www.agust.net/sol/sol-milankovitch.htm

Myndirnar sem fylgja pistlinum voru fengnar einhvers staar a lni og textinn eim ddur 1998. Upphaflega myndin er mun eldri.

hrif innbyris afstu jarar og slar hitastig.
saldir og nnur ran. Rannsknir Grnlandsjkli

CO2 - Er jrin a hitna? - Ekki er allt sem snist.


Misskilningurinn mikli: Brnun jkla Himalajafjalla orum aukinn...


skrslu Loftslagsnefndar Sameinuu janna fr rinu 2007 er nnast fullyrt a jklar Himalajafjalla veri horfnir ri 2035 ea fyrr. "Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate." essar fullyringar eru byggar strfurulegum misskilningi sem hjkvmilega fr menn til a staldra vi og huga hvort allt s me felldu hj essari virtu stofnun, International Panel of Climate Change - IPCC. Mli teygir sig jafnvel til slands eins og sj m hr fyrir nean. Einhverjir muna eftir upphlaupinu nvember sastlinum egar Rajendra Pachauri verkfringur og forstumaur IPCC sakai Indverska umhverfisruneyti um hroka. Sj hr.

Frttamilar va um heim hafa fjalla um mi og verur hr vsa nokkra eirra:

vefsunni Vsir.is er fjalla um mli 18. janar. ar segir:

http://www.visir.is/article/20100118/FRETTIR02/877981067

"Bullspr um brnun jkla:

Fullyringar Loftslagsnefndar Sameinuu janna um a jklar Himalayafjalla veri a mestu horfnir ri 2035 ea jafnvel fyrr eru byggar furulegum misskilningi og vsindalegum mistkum a sgn vefsu breska blasins The Times.

Tv r eru san Loftslagsnefnd Sameinuu janna setti fram essa geigvnlegu sp. etta er sama nefndin og st fyrir Loftslagsrstefnunni Kaupmannahfn dgunum. v var haldi fram a spin vri bygg njustu og tarlegustu rannsknum sem fyrir lgju um loftslagsbreytingar.

etta var kalla tmamtasp sem tki af allan vafa um hlnun jarar af mannavldum.

N hefur komi ljs a raun var spin bygg stuttu smtali sem blaamaur tmaritinu New Scientist tti vi ltt ekktan indverskan vsindamann fyrir nu rum. New Scientist er tmarit um tkni og vsindi fyrir almenning.

Indverski vsindamaurinn Syed Hasnian hefur viurkennt a hann hafi aeins veri me vangaveltur um brnun jklanna. Engar formlegar rannsknir hafi legi ar a baki.

Erfitt er a tskra hvernig skpunum Loftslagsnefndin kva allt einu a taka essu sem heilgum sannleika.

Rtt er a geta ess a jklafringar tku sp Loftslagsnefndarinnar me mikilli vantr snum tma. Hn varist hinsvegar me kjafti og klm.

Rajendra Pachauri formaur nefndarinnar kallai gagnrni spna voodoo vsindi". egar umhverfisrherra Indlands lsti efasemdum um spna sagi Pachairi a a lsti miklum hroka.

The Times telur lklegt a a minnsta kosti Himalaya-hluti heimsendasprinnar veri dreginn til baka".

Nokkrar tilvsanir ara fjlmila ar sem lesa m um mli:

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Dagens Nyheter Svj:

Vlkommen till DN.se

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/vetenskap/fn-rapport-om-glaciarer-felaktig-1.1029731

FN-rapport om glacirer felaktig

Uppdaterat 2010-01-19 17:26. Publicerat 2010-01-19 15:05

En rapport som anvnts av FN:s klimatpanel (IPCC) om att Himalayas glacirer kan vara borta r 2035 har visat sig vara ren spekulation. Forskaren bakom pstenden erknner nu att han bara gissat och inte anvnt sig av vetenskapliga fakta. [Meira...]

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Fr Canada.com:

http://www.canada.com/technology/climate+report+Scientist+warned+glacier+forecast+wrong/2455973/story.html

UN climate report: Scientist warned glacier forecast was wrong

By Marlowe Hood, Agence France-PresseJanuary 18, 2010

PARIS - A top scientist said Monday he had warned in 2006 that a prediction of catastrophic loss of Himalayan glaciers, published months later by the UN's Nobel-winning climate panel, was badly wrong.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report said in 2007 it was "very likely" that the glaciers, which supply water to more than a billion people across Asia, would vanish by 2035 if global warming trends continued.

"This number is not just a little bit wrong, but far out of any order of magnitude," said Georg Kaser, an expert in tropical glaciology at the University of Innsbruck in Austria.

"It is so wrong that it is not even worth discussing," he told AFP in an interview....

Kaser was a lead author in Working Group I of the IPCC report, which dealt with the physical science of climate change....

"This is a source of a lot of misunderstandings, misconceptions or failures," Kaser said, noting that some regions lacked a broad spectrum of expertise.

"It is a kind of amateurism from the regional chapter lead authors. They may have been good hydrologists or botanists, but they were without any knowledge in glaciology." [Meira...]

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The Times of India

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Ramesh-turns-heat-on-Pachauri-over-glacier-melt-scare/articleshow/5474586.cms

Ramesh turns heat on Pachauri over glacier melt scare
Nitin Sethi, TNN, 19 January 2010, 05:39am IST

NEW DELHI: The furore over the validity of data used by UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has taken some of the sheen off the Nobel prize-winning institution's reputation.

A day after it emerged that IPCC's dire prediction that climate change would melt most Himalyan glaciers by 2035 was based on mere "speculation", environment minister Jairam Ramesh slammed the processes of the celebrated body saying "due diligence had not been followed by the Nobel peace prize winning body".

"The health of glaciers is a cause of grave concern but the IPCC's alarmist position that they would melt by 2035 was not based on an iota of scientific evidence," the environment minister said.

Ramesh recalled how IPCC chief R K Pachauri had scornfully dismissed doubts raised by a government agency about the veracity of the UN body's sensational projection about melting of glaciers. "In fact, we had issued a report by scientist V K Raina that the glaciers have not retreated abnormally. At the time, we were dismissed, saying it was based on voodoo science. But the new report has clearly vindicated our position," he said.

This may not be the first time that climate science relating to India has been found to be fallacious or incorrect. However, revelation that the data on glacial melt in Himalayas was unverified has dented the image of the IPCC -- which has set the agenda for climate change talks. It has given a handle to climate sceptics who have long accused the IPCC of being biased.... [Meira...]

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Times Online

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6991177.ece

From
January 17, 2010

World misled over Himalayan glacier meltdown

A WARNING that climate change will melt most of the Himalayan glaciers by 2035 is likely to be retracted after a series of scientific blunders by the United Nations body that issued it.

Two years ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a benchmark report that was claimed to incorporate the latest and most detailed research into the impact of global warming. A central claim was the world's glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could vanish by 2035.

In the past few days the scientists behind the warning have admitted that it was based on a news story in the New Scientist, a popular science journal, published eight years before the IPCC's 2007 report....

When finally published, the IPCC report did give its source as the WWF study but went further, suggesting the likelihood of the glaciers melting was "very high". The IPCC defines this as having a probability of greater than 90%.

The report read: "Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate."

However, glaciologists find such figures inherently ludicrous, pointing out that most Himalayan glaciers are hundreds of feet thick and could not melt fast enough to vanish by 2035 unless there was a huge global temperature rise. The maximum rate of decline in thickness seen in glaciers at the moment is 2-3 feet a year and most are far lower... [Meira...]

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EU Referendum:

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/01/pachauri-theres-money-in-them-glaciers.html

Syed Hasnain (pictured), the scientist at the centre of the growing controversy over melting Himalayan glaciers (not), is now working for Dr R K Pachauri's TERI as head of the institute glaciology team, funded by a generous grant from a US charity, researching the effects of the retreat.

Highlighted in The Sunday Times yesterday, Dr Hasnain was the scientist responsible for claiming that the world's glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could vanish by 2035. This was picked up by the New Scientist and then by a 2005 WWF report, and subsequently published as a definitive claim in the IPCC's 2007 fourth assessment report, masterminded by Dr R K Pachauri....

The Global Center is an Icelandic-based private institute with links to the office of the president of Iceland, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson. Its aim is to establish "a major research and training program involving scientists from South Asia, Europe and the Americas," of which Dr Pauchari's TERI India is a central part...

The research fund is also to be topped up from the $108,000 proceeds of the Nehru Prize awarded to Grmsson this month... [Meira...]

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Prfessor Roger Pielke jr:

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/01/sorry-but-this-stinks.html

"Sorry, But This Stinks".

"The IPCC treatment of Himalayan glaciers and its chairman's conflicts of interest are related. The points and time line below are as I understand them and are informed by reporting by Richard North.

1. In 2007 the IPCC issues its Fourth Assessment Report which contains the false claim that the Himalayan glaciers are expected to disappear by 2035.

2. The basis for that statement was a speculative comment made to a reporter by Syed Hasnain in 1999, who was then (and after) a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi.

3. Following the publication of the IPCC report, and the widespread media coverage of the false claim about Himalayan glaciers, Dr. Hasnain joins TERI as a Senior Fellow, where Dr. Pachauri is the director.

4. Drs. Pachauri and Hasnain together seek to raise fund for TERI for work on Himalayan glaciers, justified by the work of the IPCC, according to Dr. Pachauri just last week:

Scientific data assimilated by IPCC is very robust and it is universally acknowledged that glaciers are melting because of climate change. The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI) in its endeavor to facilitate the development of an effective policy framework and their strategic implementation for the adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts on the local population is happy to collaborate with the University of Iceland, Ohio State University and the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

5. When initially questioned about the scientific errors Dr. Pachauri calls such questions "voodoo science" in the days leading up to the announcement of TERI receiving funding on this subject. Earlier Dr. Pachauri criticized in the harshest terms the claims made by the Indian government that were contrary to those in the IPCC

Pachauri said that such statements were reminiscent of "climate change deniers and school boy science".

6. Subsequent to the error being more fully and publicly recognized, when asked by a reporter about the IPCC's false claims Dr. Pachauri says that he has no responsibility for what Dr. Hasnain may have said, and Dr. Hasnain says, rather cheekily, the IPCC had no business citing his comments:

It is not proper for IPCC to include references from popular magazines or newspapers.

Of course, neither Dr. Pachauri nor Dr. Hasnain ever said anything about the error when it was receiving worldwide attention (as being true) in 2007 and 2008, nor did they raise any issues with the IPCC citing non-peer reviewed work (which is a systemic problem). They did however use the IPCC and its false claims as justification in support of fund raising for their own home institution. At no point was any of this disclosed.

If the above facts and time line is correct (and I welcome any corrects to details that I may have in error), then what we have here is a classic and unambiguous case of financial conflict of interest. IPCC Chairman Pachauri was making public comments on a dispute involving factual claims by the IPCC at the same time that he was negotiating for funding to his home institution justified by those very same claims. If instead of climate science we were instead discussing scientific advisors on drug safety and funding from a pharmaceutical company to the advisory committee chair the conflict would be obvious.

Climate science desperately needs to clean up its act."

etta voru bara snishorn af eim frttum sem hafa veri milum heims undanfarna tvo daga. v miur hefur etta atvik samt Climategate uppnminu skmmu fyrir jl ekki veri til a auka tiltr manna loftslgsvsindinum svoklluu. Climate science desperately needs to clean up its act, skrifar prfessor Roger Pielke jr. a eru or a snnu...

Hver var annars a tala um voodoo vsindi"?

Tengt efni:

Bloggpistill fr 13. nv. 2009:

Hefur sjvarbor virkilega hkka hraar undanfari? Ekki er a n alveg vst...


Skgrktarriti og vori sem er nstum nsta leiti...

Hekla 2005
>>> Hekla Dgg Haukadal <<<

slin s rtt aeins farin a hkka lofti, og daginn aeins rlti fari a lengja, finnur maur strax mun. Slin er greinilega heldur hrra himninum en vetrarslstum, og dagurinn greinilega heldur lengri. a fer ekki milli mla.

a er ekki laust vi a maur s farinn a hlakka rlti til vorsins. Kannski er a til marks um essa tilhlkkun a hinn sami maur s farinn a laumast til a kkja Skgrktarriti oftar. Sasta eintaki liggur nttborinu, en a merkilega vi Skgrktarriti er a a er hgt a lesa a aftur og aftur. Stinga hendinni blindandi inn staflann og t kemur einhver gersemi, - gamall vinur. Ftt er eins notalegt og sofna eftir a hafa glugga etta einstalega vandaa bla og svfa san inn fagurgrna draumaheima. Jafnvel um hvetur.

a sem einkennt hefur Skgrktarriti er hin mikla al sem lg er vi ger ess. ritinu koma saman frimenn og hugamenn, annig a a verur enstaklega hugavert. a er greinilegt a allir eru a skrifa um mlefni sem eim ykir vnt um. Kannski er a stan fyrir v hve etta venjulega rit er vinalegt.

Hva tli margir slendingar su skgrktarflgum? eir eru lklega i margir, v vefnum www.skog.is er listi me vefkrkjum yfir 60 skgrktarflg llum landshlutum.

... Og svo er vori einhvers staar handan horns. Innan skamms kviknar stin hjrtum litlu fuglanna og eir gleja okkur me sng snum mean eir gera sr hreiur og koma upp ungunum snum. er vori vissulega komi, en auvita er veturinn ekki binn. Milda veri undanfari platar okkur svolti og orrinn er eftir. Hann getur veri illskeyttur - En slin hkkar lofti og me hverjum deginum sem lur verur bjartara, - einnig hugum okkar...

(Myndin efst sunni er tekin Haukadalsskgi gst 2005. Myndina m auvita stkka me v a tvsmella hana. a kunna vst flestir :-)

Nokkrar vefsur skgrktarflaga.
Smelli nafn flags til a opna su:

www.skog.is
Skgrktarflag slands

Skgrktarflag Eyfiringa
Skgrktarflag Kpavogs
Skgrktarflag Mosfellsbjar
Skgrktarflag Neskaupstaar
Skgrktarflag Reykjavkur
Skgrktarflag Selfoss (Sk. rnesinga)
Skgrktarflag Stykkishlms

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Gmul kvikmynd fr um 1990: The Greenhouse Conspiracy...

Forngripur ea klassk? Mynd sem snd var stralska sjnvarpinu ri 1990, fyrir nnast 20 rum, - og umran hefur lti breyst.wink

a m fyrst og fremst lta essa mynd fr sgulegu sjnarmii, v arna koma fram menn sem enn eru frttunum, n tuttugu rum sar. Einnig menn sem vntanlega eru komnir undir grna torfu...

essi mynd er eingngu birt hr ar sem hn er forvitnileg. Vntanlega er hn a miklu leyti barn sns tma... Ea hva?

Er myndin barn sns tma? Hefur barni n a roskast og vitkast eim tveim ratugum sem linir eru san myndin var ger? Hefur eitthva breyst?

Fyrirvari: Skoanir sem koma fram myndinni eru a sjlfsgu ekki endilega r smu og skoanir ess er pistilinn ritar. a m alla vega hlja sr vi hana skammdeginu og kuldanum og velta fyrir sr hva hafi breyst sustu ratugum

Muni a myndin er fr 1990.

Ga helgicool

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGOMtTQFxh0

newsweek-global-cooling.jpg
Aeins 15 rum ur en myndin var ger voru hyggjurnar af allt rum toga,
eins og fram kemur greininni Newsweek sem myndin er af. Hva skyldi a hafa veri?
Smelli risvar myndina til a lesa essa frgu grein.


lafur Ragnar st sig vel hj BBC gr: Myndband...

Jeremy Paxman hj BBC er ekktur fyrir a vera harskeyttur. Hann komst varla a egar hann mtti lafi Ragnari gr. lafur lt Paxman ekki vaa yfir sig og st sig me pri.

Svona kynning hefi auvita tt a koma miklu miklu fyrr fr stjrnvldum. a verur a segjast eins og er a arna geri forsetinn gagn, hva sem manni finnst um atburina fyrr vikunni.

Sj einnig tt um Icesave, .e. fyrri hlutann, Newsnight BBC 5. janar.


lafur Ragnar: "You ain't seen nothing yet"...

.
you_aint_seen_500_shadow.jpg
"You ain&#39;t seen nothing yet"...
sagi forseti vor ru erlendri grundu ma 2005.

(Now we have seen it...)
essa frgu tilvitnun m lesa aftast runni sem m nlgast hr.
Lesi alla runa. Hn gefur okkur innsn heim sem flestum er hulinn...
Hva finnst mnnum um essa ru ljsi atbura sasta slarhrings? Ber hn ekki vott um mikla framsni, visku og skynsemi? Ber hn ekki vott um hgvr og ltillti?

"...It is of course tempting to let it remain a mystery, to allow the British business world to be perplexed...."

Skrr tengdar essari bloggfrslu:

Hraari brnun jkla Sviss fyrir 60 rum en undanfari...

vef ETH Zurich er grein sem nefnist The stupefying pace of glacier melt in the 1940s.
ar er fjalla um nja grein fr 3ja des. s.l. ritrndu timariti Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) sem nefnist Strong Alpine glacier melt in the 1940s due to enhanced solar radiation. Sj samantekt hr.
greininni kemur fram a brnun jkla Sviss hafi veri hraari fimmta ratug sustu aldar en dag, rtt fyrir hlindi undanfarinna ra. Um mija sustu ld var vissulega einnig hltt, en hfundar greinarinnar kenna um breytingum inngeislun slar og vsa til breytilegs magn loftborinna agna (aerosols) og skja.
samantektinni (abstract) vef GRL stendur:
"A 94-year time series of annual glacier melt at four high elevation sites in the European Alps is used to investigate the effect of global dimming and brightening of solar radiation on glacier mass balance. Snow and ice melt was stronger in the 1940s than in recent years, in spite of significantly higher air temperatures in the present decade. An inner Alpine radiation record shows that in the 1940s global shortwave radiation over the summer months was 8% above the long-term average and significantly higher than today, favoring rapid glacier mass loss. Dimming of solar radiation from the 1950s until the 1980s is in line with reduced melt rates and advancing glaciers".
inngangi (introduction) greinarinnar stendur:
"[2]Changes in climatic forcing are directly reflected by the mass budget of snow and ice surfaces (see von Hann [1897] and Hock [2005] for a review). Understanding the impact of changing climate conditions on glacier melt is a prerequisite for projections of glacier volume, changes in mountain hydrology, natural hazard frequency and sea level rise. For the last decades a rapid mass loss of mountain glaciers in response to climate warming has been reported for high and low latitudes all over the planet [Kaser et al., 2006]. Glacier wastage in the 20th century was mainly attributed to changes in air temperature [e.g., Haeberli and Beniston, 1998; Braithwaite and Zhang, 1999]. Global solar radiation at the earth&#39;s surface shows significant variations over the last century profoundly affecting the climate system [Ohmura and Lang, 1989; Wild et al., 2004, 2005]. Changes in solar radiation were rarely considered to explain cryospheric variability on decadal time scales [Ohmura et al., 2007]. This is due to the scarcity of both long-term radiation measurements and unbiased time series of glacier melt.

[3]Here, we interpret a 94-year time series of annual snow and ice melt at four high elevation sites in the European Alps derived from the longest direct observations of glacier surface mass balance worldwide [Huss and Bauder, 2009]. We investigate possible drivers of multidecadal changes in the glacier mass budget by putting into context the impact of variations in solar radiation given by a 73-year radiation record. Based on the presented data sets we discuss the limitations of the empirical temperature-index approach for projections of glacier melt".

Myndin hr fyrir nean er r greininni sem bloggarinn . Ekki er heimilt a birta alla greinina hr.
Efri myndin snir frvik brnun jkla. runum 1942-1952 er hn 17% yfir mealtali, en rm 13% yfir mealtali runum 199-2008.
Neri myndin snir frvik slgeislun wttum fermetra.

Figure 3.
(a) Four-site average of annual melt anomaly n (see text) and sum of daily air temperatures above 0C over the year at the study sites (dashed), low-pass filtered using 11-year running means.
Melt anomalies for extreme decadal periods are shown by bars.
(b) JJA anomaly in measured global radiation at Davos. Period means are given.


Huss M, Funk M & Ohmura A: Strong Alpine glacier melt in the 1940s due to enhanced solar radiation. Geophysical Research Letters (2009), 36, L23501, doi:10.1029/2009GL040789

Höfundur

Ágúst H Bjarnason
Ágúst H Bjarnason

Verkfr. hjá Verkís.
agbjarn-hjá-gmail.com

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