Bloggfærslur mánaðarins, mars 2007

The Great Global Warming Swindle. Áhugaverð kvikmynd sem frumsýnd var fyrir skömmu.

 

111Síðasliðinn fimmtudag (8. mars) var fræðslumyndin "The Great Global  Warming Swindle" sýnd á sjónvarpsstöðinni Channel 4 í Englandi.  Myndin vakti mikla athygli.  

Í myndinni kemur fram fjöldi þekktra vísindamanna og segir álit sitt á hnatthitunarkenningunni. Líta má á myndina sem andsvar við mynd Al Gore "An Inconvenient Truth", en munurinn er sá að hér eru það vísindmenn, en ekki stjórnmálamaður, sem tala.    Framsetning þessara tveggja kvikmynda er því ólík. Þessi kvikmynd The Great Global Warming Swindle er þó jafnvel ennþá áhugaverðari en kvikmynd Gore.

 

Vefsíða Channel 4 þar sem myndin er kynnt er hér.333

Umsögn Ragnars Bjarnasonar "Svindl eða ekki?" er hér.

 

Sjón er sögu ríkari.

Kvikmyndin er hér í fullri lengd á Google Video (1 klst 15 mínútur). ***** fær 5 stjörnur hjá Google. 

19. júní 2007. Prófa hér ef krækjan hér að ofan virkar ekki.

(Myndina má skoða í fullri skjástærð með því að smella á myndflötinn. Hægt er að velja um hvort myndin er skoðuð í venjulegum vefskoðara, eða hvort myndinni er hlaðið niður fyrst og síðan skoðuð með sérstöku forriti sem hægt er að sækja. Betri myndgæði nást þannig, en meira vesen).

Hér er torrentinn.

 

Þetta er mynd sem hugsandi fólk lætur ekki fram hjá sér fara.  Sjálfsagt er hún ekki síður umdeild en mynd Al Gore.

 

Kynning á myndinni á vefsíðu Channel 4:


The  Programme:

The film brings together the arguments of leading scientists who disagree with the prevailing consensus that carbon dioxide released by human industrial activity is the cause of rising global temperatures today.

That Earth's climate is changing and always has done is not disputed by anyone. That it is warming now is also not disputed by anyone. But some people think that the warming is our fault, whilst others believe we have nothing to do with it.

The film argues that rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide have nothing to do with climate change. Further, the present single-minded focus on reducing carbon emissions may have the unintended consequence of stifling development in the third world, prolonging endemic poverty and disease.

Recent research, presented in this film, apparently shows that the effect of cosmic radiation, and solar activity may explain fluctuations in global temperatures more precisely than the carbon dioxide theory.

An alternative explanation for rising global temperatures is based on research by the Danish Space Center. They found that as solar activity increases, cloud formation on Earth is significantly diminished and temperature rises.

‘Solar activity over the last hundred years, over the last several hundred years, correlates very nicely, on a decadal basis, with temperature.’

A respected Kenyan development expert says: ‘I don't see how a solar panel is going to power a steel industry, how a solar panel is going to power a railway network… There is somebody keen to kill the African dream, and the African dream is to develop. We are being told don't touch your resources, don't touch your oil, don't touch your coal; that is suicide.’

The film features an impressive roll-call of experts, in climatology, oceanography, meteorology, environmental science, biogeography and paleoclimatology, from such reputable institutions as MIT, Nasa, the International Arctic Research Centre, the Institut Pasteur, the Danish National Space Center and the Universities of London, Ottawa, Jerusalem, Winnipeg, Alabama and Virginia.

The arguments:

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is one long story of climate change. This fact is pretty much accepted by those who think global warming is a natural process, and those who think it's caused by man.

In more recent history there has been: a mini ice age in the seventeenth century when the Thames froze so solidly that fairs could regularly be held on the ice; a Medieval Warm Period, even balmier than today; and sunnier still was the so-called Holocene Maximum, which was the warmest period in the last 10,000 years.

Those who think global warming is a natural process point to the fact that in the last 10,000 years, the warmest periods have happened well before humans started to produce large amounts of carbon dioxide.

A detailed look at recent climate change reveals that the temperature rose prior to 1940 but unexpectedly dropped in the post-war economic boom, when carbon dioxide emissions rose dramatically.

There is some evidence to suggest that the rise in carbon dioxide lags behind the temperature rise by 800 years and therefore can't be the cause of it.

In the greenhouse model of global warming, heat from the sun's rays is trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. If it weren't for these gases, Earth would be too cold for life.

Greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun within the earth's atmosphere. This is the greenhouse effect. Traditional models predict that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to runaway heating.

If greenhouse warming were happening, then scientists predict that the troposphere (the layer of the earth's atmosphere roughly 10-15km above us) should heat up faster than the surface of the planet, but data collected from satellites and weather balloons doesn't seem to support this.

Those who think global warming is a natural process say that the troposphere is not heating up because man-made greenhouse gases are not causing the planet to heat up.

For some people, the final nail in the coffin of human-produced greenhouse gas theories is the fact that carbon dioxide is produced in far larger quantities by many natural means: human emissions are miniscule in comparison. Volcanic emissions and carbon dioxide from animals, bacteria, decaying vegetation and the ocean outweigh our own production several times over.

Others would argue that carbon dioxide isn't the only greenhouse gas and that human emissions could tip up a finely balanced system.

New evidence shows that that as the radiation coming from the sun varies (and sun-spot activity is one way of monitoring this) the earth seems to heat up or cool down. Solar activity very precisely matches the plot of temperature change over the last 100 years. It correlates well with the anomalous post-war temperature dip, when global carbon dioxide levels were rising.

In fact, what is known of solar activity over the last several hundred years correlates very well with temperature. This is what some scientists are beginning to believe causes climate change. Others feel that solar activity only explains the fine details of temperature change.

So how does the sun affect the earth's temperature? The process scientists suggest is that as earth moves through space, the atmosphere is constantly bombarded by ever-present cosmic rays. As these particles hit water vapour evaporating from the oceans, clouds form in the atmosphere. Clouds shield Earth from some of the sun's radiation and have a cooling effect.

When solar activity is high, there is an increase in solar wind and this has the effect of reducing the amount of cosmic radiation which reaches Earth.

When less cosmic radiation reaches Earth, fewer clouds form and the full effects of the sun's radiation heats the planet. But is the effect of solar activity really enough to explain away global warming caused by the greenhouse effect?

 

Vísindamenn sem koma fram í myndinni:


-- Dr. Pat Michaels - Prófessor í umhverfisvísindum, University of Virginia

-- Dr. Richard Lindzen - Prófessor í veðurfræði, MIT

-- Dr. Henrik Svensmark - Forstöðumaður Centre for Sun-Climate Research við Danish National Space Center

-- Dr. Eigil Friis-Christensen - Forstöðumaður Danish Space Center

-- Dr. Tim Ball - Loftslagsfræðingur. Prófessor emeritus  við University of Winnipeg

-- Dr. Ian Clark - Prófessor í Isotope hydrogeology og fornveðurfræði, University of Ottawa

-- Nigel Calder - Fyrrum ritstjóri New Scientist Editor. Höfundur ásamt Henrik Svensmark að bókinni The Chilling Stars

-- Dr. Philip Stott - Prófessor Emeritus í Biogeography, University of London

-- Dr. Nir Shaviv - Associate Prófessor, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

-- Dr. Paul Reiter - Prófessor, Institut Pasteur, París

-- Dr. John Christy - Prófessor og forstöðumaður Earth System Science Center, NSSTC University of Alabama

-- Dr. Roy Spencer - Principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville. In the past, he served as Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama

-- Dr. Patrick Moore - Stofnaði Greenpeace ásamt fleirum.

-- Dr. Piers Corbyn - Forstöðumaður Weather Action

-- Nigel Lawson - Lord Lawson of Blaby

-- Dr. Carl Wunsch - Prófessor í eðlisfræðilegri haffræði, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, MIT. Eftir að myndin var frumsýnd kvartaði Carl Wunsch yfir því að hann hefði ekki vitað hvers konar mynd væri verið að framleiða. Það er því vert að fylgjast sérstaklega vel með því hann segir í myndinni. Sjá grein um málið hér hjá The National Post

-- Dr. Fred Singer - President Science & Environmental Policy Project, Prófessor við George Mason University og Prófessor Emeritus í umhverfisvísindum við University of Virginia

-- Dr. Chris Landsea - Formerly a research meteorologist with Hurricane Research Division of Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory at NOAA, is now the Science AND Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center

-- James Shikiwati - Kenyan economist and Director of the Inter Region Economic Network

-- Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu - Director of the International Arctic research Centre


Tunglmyrkvinn laugardaginn 3. mars.

Væntanlega viðrar ekki vel fyrir stjörnuskoðun meðan á tunglmyrkvanum stendur. Það er þó aldrei að vita nema tunglið gægist milli skýja.

Á Stjörnufræðivefnum www.stjornuskodun.is er góð lýsing á tunglmyrkvanum. Þar stendur m.a:

"Þann 3. mars næstkomandi (á laugardagskvöld) verður almyrkvi á tungli. Skuggi jarðar byrjar að færast yfir tunglið kl. 21:30 en sjálfur almyrkvinn hefst klukkan 22:44. Honum lýkur 23:57.

Verði veður hagstætt laugardaginn 3. mars næstkomandi ættu allir stjörnuáhugamenn að líta til himins og verða vitni að glæsilegu sjónarspili. Tunglið gengur þá inn fyrir skugga jarðar og almyrkvi á tungli á sér stað. Almyrkvinn 3. mars er sá eini sem sést frá Íslandi á þessu ári en næsti sýnilegi almyrkvi verður 21. febrúar árið 2008. Almyrkvinn nú er jafnframt sá fyrsti síðan 28. október árið 2004...."

Á Stjörnufræðivefnum er mikill fróðleikur um tunglmyrkvann sem vert er að skoða.

Mjög góð lýsing á tunglmyrkvanum er á bloggsíðu Finns Malmquist.

Myndin hér fyrir neðan er af almyrkvanum 3. mars síðastliðinn. Meira hér.

Ekki er nauðsynlegt að nota stjörnukíki til að fylgjast með myrkvanum, en miklu munar að nota venjulegan handsjónauka.

Hvernig ætli tunglmyrkvinn líti út séð frá tunglinu? Það sést á neðri myndinni, sem er reyndar samsett mynd úr mynd sem tekin var af jörðinni frá tunglinu og mynd af sólmyrkva. Auðvitað er þetta sólmyrkvi sem karlinn í tunglinu sér, því jörðin skyggir á sólina. Meira um þessa mynd á vefsiðunni Astronomical Picture of the Day.
 

Þegar rétt sést í sólina, eins og á myndinni, er talað um demantshring. Nánar hér.

 

Tunglmyrkvi

 Tunglmyrkvi

 

 

tsemoon_Gartstein_f
Karlinn í tunglinu sér sólmyrkva 3. mars

Höfundur

Ágúst H Bjarnason
Ágúst H Bjarnason

Verkfr. hjá Verkís.
agbjarn-hjá-gmail.com

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