Norskir og knverskir vsindamenn sp klnun nstu rum njum frigreinum...

ws_ice_mountain_1920x1200_1126595.jpg

Nlega rakst g tvr vsindagreinar sem vktu athygli mna. nnur greinin er norsk og hin knversk. Normennirnir beindu sjnum snum a Svalbara,
en Knverjarnir a Tbet.
a merkilega er a r eiga furu margt sameiginlegt.
Hva skyldi a vera?

hugasamir geta nlgast norsku greinina me v a smella hr, og hina knversku hr. Bar greinarnar eru skrifaar ensku.

rstutt kynning greinunum:

cutcaster-photo-100641236-businesswoman-leader-holding-norway-flag.jpgNorska greinin er eftir Dr. Jan Erik Solheim, Dr. Kjell Stordahl og Dr. Ole Humlum. Solheim og Humlum eru prfessorar vi Hsklann Osl.

Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures nefnist greinin.

rdrttur:

http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3256

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years.


The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle, is used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature, and seasonal temperature variations.

Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations.


These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5 +/- 2C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of approx 6C.

Eftirtektarvert er a eir sp verulegri klnun Svalbara fram a rinu 2020. etta er svo mikil klnun skmmum tma a a setur a manni hroll.

Fyrir hlfu ru ri var blogga um grein eftir Jan Erik Solheim. Sj hr.
Margir kannast vi Ole Humlum vegna hinnar gtu vefsu Climate4You

Grein eftir smu hfunda s.l. sumar er Identifying natural contributions to late holocene climate change. Smella hr

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cutcaster-photo-100670729-businessman-leader-holding-china-flag.jpgKnverska greinin heitir v langa nafni Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau.

Greinin fjallar um hitabreytingar Tbet yfir sastliin 2485 r.

Einhver hefur kannski gaman af a glugga grein sem var a koma t blai Knversku Vsindaakademunnar. Knverjarnir lta sr ekki ngja a skoa hitafari Tbet sastliin 2485 r, heldur skoa eir kaffibolla og sp fyrir um nstu ratugi/aldir.

ar stendur samantektinni:
http://csb.scichina.com:8080/kxtbe/EN/abstract/abstract504775.shtml

Samantekt:

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities, causes and future trends of temperature variations based on tree rings for the past 2485 years on the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. The results showed that extreme climatic events on the Plateau, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming appeared synchronously with those in other places worldwide.

The largest amplitude and rate of temperature change occurred during the Eastern Jin Event (343-425 AD), and not in the late 20th century. There were significant cycles of 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a, 110 a and 2-3 a in the 2485-year temperature series. The 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a and 110 a cycles are associated with solar activity, which greatly affects the Earth surface temperature. The long-term trends (>1000 a) of temperature were controlled by the millennium-scale cycle, and amplitudes were dominated by multi-century cycles. Moreover, cold intervals corresponded to sunspot minimums. The prediction indicated that the temperature will decrease in the future until to 2068 AD and then increase again.

Greinina alla m skja me v a smella hr.

Knverjarnir lta sr ekki ngja a skoa hitafari Tbet sastliin 2485 r, heldur skoa eir kaffibolla og sp fyrir um nstu ratugi/aldir.

Knverjarnir sp sem sagt umtalsverri klnun Tbet ar sem rannsknin fr fram me lgmarki ea mestum kulda um 2068.

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Hvernig skyldi hafsinn hr fyrir noran rast gangi spr normannanna eftir?

a vekur neitanlega athygli a bi Normennirnir og Knverjarnir kenna slinni um essar hitasveiflur. a m vst ekki minnast slkt hr, svo vi skulum fara varlega sakirnar. Hver veit nema essar greinar geti styggt vikvmar slir sem kunna a vera sveimi. Bandit

Norska greinin er hr,

Knverska greinin er hr.

Bar greinarnar eru skrifaar ensku.

Miki ver g ngur ef essir herramenn sem greinarnar hafa sami
reynast hafa rangt fyrir sr.
Vi urfum ekki a ba nema fein r eftir a sannleikurinn komi ljs.

ar sem oft verur uppistand miki egar fjalla er um mlefni sem ekki eru
takt vi tskustraumana loftslagsmlum, er rtt a taka eftirfarandi fram:


mlefnalegar athugasemdir vera ekki birtar hr fyrir nean.



Sasta frsla | Nsta frsla

Athugasemdir

1 Smmynd: Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson

Hr m lesa um norsku greinina RealClimate (Curve-fitting and natural cycles: The best part), ar sem lesa m eftirfarandi:

They claim to present a new technique to identify the character of natural climate variations, and from this, to produce a testable forecast of future climate. They project that

the observed late 20th century warming in Svalbard is not going to continue for the next 20–25 years. Instead the period of warming may be followed by variable, but generally not higher temperatures for at least the next 20–25 years.

However, their claims of novelty are overblown, and their projection is demonstrably unsound.

First, the claim of presenting “a new technique to identify the character of natural climate variations” is odd, as the techniques Humlum et al. use — Fourier transforms and wavelet analysis — have have been around for a long time. It is commonplace to apply them to climate data.

Nnar Curve-fitting and natural cycles: The best part

Merkilegt a eir fullyri um njar aferir varandi essi fri, egar r eru a ekki - segir kannski eitthva um a hversu miki eir hafa kynnt sr mlin og ekki ekki aferafri sem er gangi varandi loftslagsfrin... En hr m lka lesa um Humlum einn af mehfundum og um vinnubrg hans, ekkert til a hrpa hrra fyrir, sj Humlum is at it again:

Upphalds kaflinn minn er nefndur; Cherry-picking and inventing data - sem virist vera upphald hans og annarra "efasemdamanna" um loftslagsvsindin. a verur a vera einhver trverugleiki hj rannsknarailum, ekki sst egar a er veri a gera svona spr eins og eir flagar gera varandi hitastigi vi Svalbara... sem ekki eru samrmi vi arar rannsknir (nema kannski annarra kunnra "efasemdamanna")... Jja, sagan endalausa heldur fram hva sem lur eirri stareynd a hitastig heiminum hkkar - fru ekki lei a sp essum kuldakastum gst - bin a vera a san 1998 (hi minnsta) og ekkert blar kuldakastinu heimsvsu...

g finn kannski eitthva sar um knversku greinina...ef g nenni...

Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 16.12.2011 kl. 22:51

2 Smmynd: Jn Magnsson

Miki skelfing vona g a eir hafi rangt fyrir sr en g er hins vegar hrddur um a etta s allt saman rtt. Hva sem v lur koma alltaf fram fleiri og fleiri vsbendingar um a svonefnd mannger hlnun jarar s ekki til staar.

Jn Magnsson, 17.12.2011 kl. 00:22

3 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Sll Jn

Satt er a. Vi getum ekki anna en vona en eir hafi rangt fyrir sr. Hva verur mun koma ljs allra nstu rum. Vi bum rlegir...

gst H Bjarnason, 17.12.2011 kl. 19:28

4 Smmynd: Hskuldur Bi Jnsson

Sll, a er sitthva undarlegt me knversku greinina.

Hvernig gengur t.d. essi setning upp (vsbendin etta feitletraa):

There were significant cycles of 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a, 110 a and 2-3 a in the 2485-year temperature series.

A auki er essi setning undarleg:

The results showed that extreme climatic events on the Plateau, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming appeared synchronously with those in other places worldwide.

Srstaklega ljsi ess a essir atburir eru alls ekki sjanlegir va um heim, mig grunar a ritrningin hafi klikka, .e. ef greinin var ritrnd.

Hskuldur Bi Jnsson, 17.12.2011 kl. 20:49

5 identicon

Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 16.12.2011 kl. 22:51: a vill n annig til, flagi Svatli, a nttran hefur alltaf sasta ori. A sama skapi er a mikill misskilningur - og ofmat mannskepnunni - a halda a einhver 'mannger hlnun' geti haft afgerandi hrif gangverk nttrunnar.

g hef leyft mr a halda v fram a mealhiti jrinni s a lkka. Fjlmargar vsbendingar renna stoum undir kenningu og vst er a Durban-rstefnan fr ekki varhluta af eirri vitneskju. Vi l a a yri messufall rstefnunni og niurstaan var hvorki fugl n fiskur. Einungis um 16% jlanda eru tilbin a framlengja Kyoto og eins vst er a strveldiskolefniskvtadraumar Al Gore og heimsvaldaeltunnar su a renna t sandinn.

etta eru gallharar stareyndir Svatli minn. Kolefniskirkjutrboi er 'over the hill'- dmi. egar til a taka eru hugsandi menn einfaldlega ekki tilbnir a kaupa meinta 'hnatthlnun' egar kaldasti vetur mannaminnum gengur yfir.

Hilmar r Hafsteinsson (IP-tala skr) 17.12.2011 kl. 21:07

6 Smmynd: Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson

Hilmar:

Einu sinni var sagt sem svo "lengi tekur hafi vi" - svo urum vi ess vs a a var rangt a nota hafi sem "ruslakistu" - s.s. mannskeppnan hafi hrif, eins og vita er. a sama er hgt a segja um lofthjpinn, ar sem aukin grurhsahrifa af mannavldum hafa teki vi af nttrulegu jafnvgi...

Mlingar stafesta kenninguna

A efast um BEST

PS. mtt svo sem halda v fram a a s a klna - a s rangt... um a "flagi" Hilmar :)

Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 17.12.2011 kl. 22:12

Bta vi athugasemd

Ekki er lengur hgt a skrifa athugasemdir vi frsluna, ar sem tmamrk athugasemdir eru liin.

Höfundur

Ágúst H Bjarnason
Ágúst H Bjarnason

Verkfr. hjá Verkís.
agbjarn-hjá-gmail.com

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