BBC: Hefur slin sofna? - er kuldatmabil framundan...?

warming2.jpg


Has the Sun gone to sleep? nefnist frtt sem var fyrradag 17. janar BBC. ar er rtt vi nokkra vsindamenn um stareynd a slvirknin hefur falli mjg hratt undanfari og telja msir vsindamann a a geti haft fr me sr klnun nstu rum, hugsanlega svo um munar.

Hlustum hva vsindamennirnir hafa a segja essu myndbandi. Frttina m lesa vef BBC hr.

Why has the Sun gone to sleep? BBC News.
(Fjarlgja auglsingu sem birtist nest myndfletinum me v a smella X)

gr 18. janar var svo aftur fjalla um mli vef BBC. Is our Sun falling silent? nefnist frttin sem er efnislega sama og og fram kom myndbandinu. Ltil virkni slar virist hafa komi vsindamnnum vart og rifja eir upp tmabil egar slvirknin var einstaklega ltil 17. ld og frosthrkur miklar. Maunder lgmarki nefnist a tmabil.

silent_sun.jpg

Frttina, sem er frleg, er sjlfsagt a lesa vel hr.

Vi getum ekki anna en vona a mikil klnun s ekki framundan, v afleiingarnar gtu ori hrikalegar. N hefur ekki hlna hlfan annan ratug. nlegri frtt hinu virta tmariti Nature stendur undirfyrirsgn „Sixteen years into the mysterious "global-warming hiatus", scientists are piecing together an explanation", en ar er horft til breytinga hafinu. Ef Nature talar um 16 ra hik fyrirsgn, hltur eitthva a vera til v.

nature_the_pause.png

„Sixteen years into the mysterious "global-warming hiatus..."

Hefur hlnunin sem var lok sustu aldar n hmarki? Hva er framundan? Menn leita skringa og horfa meal annars til slar aan sem allur hitinn sem vermir okkur kemur
.

Maunder lgmarki

Maunder lgmarki 17. ld. Nverandi slsveifla er lengst til hgri, en hn er s minnsta 100 r, ea kannski 200 r?
Sj hr.

thames-5-b_527654

Is nni Thames London ri 1677.

Ef ljs kemur nstu rum a ltil slvirkni hefur fr me sr klnun, er ekki rkrtt a mikil slvirkni lok sustu aldar hafi haft fr me sr hlnun?

Mli er flki, loi og sni. Vsindamenn klra sr hfinu yfir hikinu hnatthlnun. v spu ekki tlvulknin flknu og dru. Hva veldur essu hiki? Er um a kenna slinni, breytingum hafs, breytingum hafinu ea breytingum vindakerfum? Er hitinn kannski a fela sig undirdjpunum eins og einhver hefur haldi fram?

Getur ekki veri a um s a ra samspl fyrirbra, ar sem eitt togar anna. Svona svipa og egar Einbjrn togar Tvbjrn, Tvbjrn rbjrn, og svo framvegis?

Kannski er a ekki tilviljun a undanfrnum ldum hefur virkni slar og lofthitinn haldist nokkurn vegin hendur, ekki frekar en a a er varla tilviljun a hitinn binni minni fylgir nokkurn vegin virkni ofnakerfisins.

Halo

cartoon-sun-hi.png

tarefni:

Hva skyldi Dr. Jasper Kirkby hj CERN hafa um framtina a segja:

etta var bara rklippa, en ef huginn hefur vakna, er allt efni hr:

A lokum sulum vi rifja upp gamlan bloggpistil fr rinu 2009:

Prfessor Henrik Svensmark: Vi anbefaler vores venner at nyde den globale opvarmning, mens den varer...


Sasta frsla | Nsta frsla

Athugasemdir

1 identicon

akka prilegan pistil HB. essi frtt visir.is fr fstudeginum 17. janar tti lka a vekja athygli:

> http://visir.is/umhverfisloggjof-gaeti-dregid-ur-hagvexti-um-tolf-prosentustig/article/2014140118912

"Kostnaur vi a a halda rsandi hitastigi jarar skefjum gti n fjrum prsentum af samanlagri vergri landsframleislu allra landa heims ri 2030...

... drgunum kemur fram a „lklega" muni markmii um a halda hkkun hitastigs innan tveggja gra krefjast ess a hlutfalli grurhsalofttegunda andrmsloftinu veri haldi innan vi 480 ppm. Hlutfalli er 400 ppm dag.

a muni hinsvegar sama tma leia til samdrttar vergri landsframleislu bilinu 1-4% ri 2030, 2-6% ri 2050 og allt a 12% ri 2100. drgunum kemur einnig fram a kostnaurinn vi a berjast gegn hnattrnni hlnun gti veri hrri en kostnaurinn vi a takast vi hrif ess a gera a ekki."

arf a segja meira um hrunadans ahlnunartrbosins?

Hilmar Hafsteinsson (IP-tala skr) 19.1.2014 kl. 15:55

2 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Hilmar. essi frttapistill BBC fjallar reyndar bara um nttruleg fyrirbri og g held g hafi ekki fjalla um anna :-)

gst H Bjarnason, 19.1.2014 kl. 19:00

3 identicon

a er rtt, a a er slin sem rur llu um hitastig jrinni. rltil aukning koltvldis hefur ekkert a segja. En hundru ef ekki sundir manns hafa hnattrna hlnun af mannavldum a lifibraui auk rkisstjrna sem hafa gert etta a ffu og a li gefst ekki upp svo auveldlega. Jafnvel tt kenning eirra heldur ekki vatni. N heldur rkfrslur eirra.

Ptur D. (IP-tala skr) 19.1.2014 kl. 19:26

4 identicon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtevF4B4RtQ

GB (IP-tala skr) 19.1.2014 kl. 19:59

5 identicon

a er merkilegt hva vi vitum lti um essi nttrufyrirbri. Ef framundan er ltil sld" getur andrmslofti hreinsast mun hraar en bist er vi. skal ekki gera lti r eirri stareynd a CO2 er 25% meira magni andrmsloftinu en ur hefur mlst. Frlegt a fylgjast me vsindum, kenningum og samspilinu sem leiir til "niurstu" sttanlega vi fugarfar eirra sem telja sig vita tkomuna.

k.kv

Snorri Betel

Snorri (IP-tala skr) 19.1.2014 kl. 21:35

6 Smmynd: Gunnar Th. Gunnarsson

etta er n bara til a auka kvakst loftslagsalarmistanna.

Er ekki enn voa heitt stralu?

Gunnar Th. Gunnarsson, 19.1.2014 kl. 22:19

7 Smmynd: Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson

tli fullyringar um kuldatmabil su n ekki tmabr, enda lti sem ekkert sem styur annig stahfingar:

A grand solar minimum would barely make a dent in human-caused global warming

Research has shown that a grand solar minimum would offset no more than 0.3C of global warming

Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 20.1.2014 kl. 00:29

8 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

a veit enginn hve mikil hrif essi minnkandi slvirkni muni hafa. a veit heldur enginn hve miki slvirknin muni minnka. a er er v margt sem vi vitum ekki.

Sjlfum finnst mr lklegt a lgmark svipa og kalla er Maunder minimum s yfirvofandi, frekar eitthva lkingu vi Dalton lgmarki runum 1790-1830. a lgmark var alls ekki eins djpt og Maunder lgmarki. Svo var lka Gleissberg lgmarki runum 1870-1910 egar fjldi slendinga fluttu vestur um haf. N, vi sjum einnig a smvgileg dfa slvirkni var um 1970, .e. tma sem vi slendingar kllum hafsrin ea kalrin.

Hver sem hrif minnkandi virkni vera, vonandi vera au ltil, er vst a ekking manna essu fyrirbri mun aukast verulega og vi munum lra miki. N egar er slin nnast gjrgslu og fjldi gervihnatta fylgist me henni.

g vi treka a essi pistill fjallar eingngu um minnkandi slvirkni og hugsanleg hrif jrina.
Vi skulum vira a athugasemdunum og standast freistingu a fjalla um hrif manna hitafar. Einbeitum okkur a slinni og hrifum hennar.

gst H Bjarnason, 20.1.2014 kl. 06:23

9 Smmynd: Hrafn Arnarson

Ef vi gefum okkur a klnun ea veruleg klnun s framundan hva verur um siglingar um Norurplinn? Hvernig myndi stndi Norurslum breytast?

Hrafn Arnarson, 20.1.2014 kl. 07:52

10 Smmynd: Hskuldur Bi Jnsson

a er rtt a halda v til haga a egar vsindamenn segja a vi sum a fara Maunder minimum astur (eins og bi BBC frttinni og myndbandinu) eru eir a tala um slvirknina (slbletti, UV o.f.). Hins vegar eru vsindamenn flestir sammla um a hrif slvirkni s hverfandi n ori vi hnattrnan hita, ar sem arir ttir eru ornir sterkari (sj Hr).Hins vegar eru vsbendingar um a stabundi geti hrifin ori s a vetur vera kaldari - helst norur Evrpu.

Hskuldur Bi Jnsson, 20.1.2014 kl. 08:50

11 Smmynd: Brynjlfur orvarsson

gst, fnt blogg hj r. g tek eftir a talar um 1870-1910 og vesturfarir slendinga, r voru vst ekki sur vegna eldgoss skju 1875.

Annars er greinin sem vsar til orin aeins relt. Nverandi slarhmark (nr. 24) stefndi vissulega a vera talsvert lgri kantinum, og sasta lgmark var venju rlegt (t.d. engir slblettir 2008-2009). Nna sustu vikum hafa hins vegar ori minnst eitt risaeldgos og talsver fjlgun slbletta slinni sem bendir til ess a hmark 24 veri kannski ekki eins lgt og menn hldu - mr snist a egar veri komi upp fyrir sasta hmark.

Sj http://www.almanac.com/sunspotupdate

lnuriti sunni sem g vsa til m vel sj lgmarki 1970 sem nefnir. En ar m einnig sj a hmark slvirkni virist hafa veri n um 1960. Ekki veit g hvernig a fellur a mldri hlnun eftir 1960, en g ykist n heldur ekki skilja allt.

Brynjlfur orvarsson, 20.1.2014 kl. 10:39

12 Smmynd: mar Bjarki Kristjnsson

Vissulega voru kld og hr r lok 19.aldar me salgum landfstum mnuum saman sem hgt er a sj annlum. En a var miklu fleira sem var orsk Vesturfera ea brottflutnings af landinu. Ein aalorskin, a mnu mati, var and bndasamflagsins bsetu vi sj og hgur vxtur ttblis. Svo seint sem um 1880 eru sett lg sem hamla urrabarstofnun. Innbyggjar voru almennt mjg bndasinnair, .e. a a sem eir kunnu fyrst og fremst var a vera me rollur. eir vildu helst stofna bli. Bi var a gert erfitt tknilega og jafnframt var drt a eignast jr og leiguliakerfi var fullu gildi t ldina, m segja. a sst svo a egar landnemarnir komu vestur, stfndu eir flestir a reisa bli og hefja saufjrrkt alveg eins og eir ekktu han. Ofansagur faktor er strlega vanmetinn orsakavldum Vesturfera, a mnu mati. Flk var ekki sst a flgja stjrnarfari sem eltan beitti.Og eltan var forverar framsknarmanna og sjalla.

mar Bjarki Kristjnsson, 20.1.2014 kl. 11:49

13 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Takk fyrir r athugasemdir sem komnar eru.

g bti kannski einhverju vi eftir vinnu.

gst H Bjarnason, 20.1.2014 kl. 12:17

14 identicon

etta er sannarlega hugaver umra HB. fullu samrmi vi ritstjrn suhaldara vil g benda merkilega grein vsindaritinu "Pattern Recognition in Physics". Greinin nefnist "General conclusions regarding the planetary–solar–terrestrial interaction" og er a finna fyrsta tlublai vsindaritsins.

> http://www.pattern-recogn-phys.net/1/205/2013/prp-1-205-2013.pdf

Niurstaa eirra fjlmrgu aljlegu vsindamanna sem rita greinina er:

"Conclusion 1

The solar activity varies with a number of characteristic time cycles. There are no solar theories able to explain this variability as driven and sustained by internal processes. We

present (in paper after paper) a spectrum of ideas, estimates, observations and calculations to demonstrate that the driving factor of solar variability must emerge from gravitational and inertial effects on the Sun from the planets and their satellites

Implication 1

We hope that by the arguments and facts presented in this volume we have lifted “the planetary hypothesis” to the level of a “planetary theory”, and we even foresee that it will lead to a new paradigm on planetary–solar–terrestrial interaction. We are well aware of the fact that there is much more to learn and improve, but we trust the theory is here to stay.

Implication 2

Several papers have addressed the question about the evolution of climate during the 21st century. Obviously, we are on our way into a new grand solar minimum. This sheds serious

doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC project."

Niurlagi er krskrt:

"Obviously, we are on our way into a new grand solar minimum. This sheds serious

doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC project."(!)

Eftirmli:

essi lokaor aljlegs teymis vsindamanna vktu slka athygli a tgefandi essa nja og lofandi vsindatmarits s sng sna tbreidda og tilkynnti formlega a tgfu tmaritsins vri hr me htt!

a eru daprir dagar vsindaheiminum egar plitsk trarbrg yfirtaka mannlega skynsemi.

Hilmar Hafsteinsson (IP-tala skr) 20.1.2014 kl. 17:13

15 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Kannski g leggi nokkur or belg... g vil taka fram a g reyni a lta nokku hlutlaust mli. a m ekki taka allt of bkstaflega g vsi eitthva tarefni, og alls ekki ar me sagt a g s v sammla. a er fyrst og fremst ngjunnar vegna sem g hef mest veri a pla hrifum slar.

En, ef menn hafa ngju af hfilegu bulli, er hr pistill fr rinu 2003 me einhverjum lagfringum 2006. Hafa verur huga a etta var fyrir meira en ratug. Fyrri hlutinn er smilegur, en san er greinilega einhver reyta farin a hrj skrifarann, enda var etta gert einhverju stui og mr til dundurs kvldstund eina fyrir lngu: ldur aldanna.

Svo er hr enn eldara bull, ea fr rinu 1998 (sast laga 2004). etta er nokkrum samtengdum sum: Ekki er allt sem snist.

Krkjur eru meira og minna ornar virkar hvoru tveggja.

Sem sagt, nokku gamalt og fi.

gst H Bjarnason, 20.1.2014 kl. 19:38

16 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Varandi slbletattluna, er a mealgildi reikna yfir mnuinn sem gildir. Fr degi til dags eru sveiflur aftur mti miklar. Hr su NASA er yfirlit fr 2. janar http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

Me v a smella myndina ar m sj strri og fallegri mynd.

essari su er fjldi beintengdra ferla, ar meal ferla sem sna slbletattluna. eir eru nearlega sunni.

gst H Bjarnason, 20.1.2014 kl. 19:49

17 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason


Mean heildartgeislun slar (TSI) breytist um ca 0,1% yfir slsveifluna, breytist UV (extreme ultraviolet) tturinn hlutfallslega miklu meira, ea um 1,5%. (Aeins hlutfallslega ar sem styrkur UV er minni en TSI).

BBC ttinum er minnst essa UV (ea EUV) geisla og hrif eirra hloftavindabelti og ar me hitastig norurhveli.

Forvitnilegt er a vita hvort hrifa Litlu saldar og Maunder lgmarksins hafi gtt suurhveli.

Hr eru tvr greinar sem varpa gtu sm ljsi mli:


An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12000659

Hr kemur fram a meki um Litlu sldina ofl komi vel fram Suurskautslandinu. Sj sjlfa greinina, ar stendur m.a: "...The LIA has been recognized in the AP region broadly between 700 and 150 yrs B.P. (--) in sediment cores and glacial advances. Our only ikaite crystal formed during LIA does indicate significant cooling relative to the MWP....".



Little Ice Age cold interval in West Antarctica: Evidence from borehole temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051260/abstract

Eins og fram kemur Abstract eru greinileg merki um Litlu sldina Suurskautslandinu:

"The largest climate anomaly of the last 1000 years in the Northern Hemisphere was the Little Ice Age (LIA) from 1400–1850 C.E., but little is known about the signature of this event in the Southern Hemisphere, especially in Antarctica. We present temperature data from a 300 m borehole at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide.

Results show that WAIS Divide was colder than the last 1000-year average from 1300 to 1800 C.E. The temperature in the time period 1400–1800 C.E. was on average 0.52 0.28C colder than the last 100-year average. This amplitude is about half of that seen at Greenland Summit (GRIP). This result is consistent with the idea that the LIA was a global event, probably caused by a change in solar and volcanic forcing, and was not simply a seesaw-type redistribution of heat between the hemispheres as would be predicted by some ocean-circulation hypotheses. The difference in the magnitude of the LIA between Greenland and West Antarctica suggests that the feedbacks amplifying the radiative forcing may not operate in the same way in both regions."


bum essum greinum kemur fram a merki um Litlu sldina komi fram Suurskautslandinu.

gst H Bjarnason, 20.1.2014 kl. 20:37

18 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Svo er hr hugavert efni fr NASA um hrif slar nna Nl Egyptalandi:


NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=1319

Og greinin:

Does the Nile reflect solar variability? by Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman and Yuk Yung

(Joan Feynman er systir hins ekkta elisfrings Richard Feynman Nbelsverlaunahafa)


http://journals.cambridge.org/article_S1743921306002560%E2%80%8E

(arf a vera skrur hj Cambridge. kostar ekkert)

gst H Bjarnason, 20.1.2014 kl. 20:43

19 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Varandi veurfar og harindi fyrr tmum slandi m benda etta:


r Jakobsson
Um hafs fyrir Suurlandi - fr landnmi til essa dags
http://www.vedur.is/hafis/frodleikur/nr/326


Vesturfarasetri Hofssi
rferisannll 1870-1914

http://www.hofsos.is/?c=webpage&id=82&lid=80&option=links


Saga slensku jarinnar endurspeglar stri vi hfuskepnurnar
Umfjllun um fyrirlestra Sigurar rarinssonar Tmanum 1956
http://timarit.is/view_page_init.jsp?pageId=1027684

Jja, tli etta dugi ekki bili

gst H Bjarnason, 20.1.2014 kl. 21:03

22 Smmynd: var Plsson

Takk fyrir tenglana og upplsingarnar, gst. Vi flki kuldajari heimsins erum nttrulega vikvmust fyrir essari sveiflu og ttum a ra hana llu betur, hlutfalli vi mikilvgi hennar lfi slandi.

var Plsson, 21.1.2014 kl. 00:36

23 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Hlmsteinn. Takk fyrir a vsa pistil Judith Curry prfessors.

var. a er rtt, vi hr slandi erum mjg nm fyrir llum svona sveiflum. Ekki arf mikla klnun til a hafs veri nrgngull, kal tnum, kartfluuppskera, aflahrun, ofl., allt sem vi ekkjum fr smvgilegri klnun "hafsrunum".

gst H Bjarnason, 21.1.2014 kl. 06:12

24 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Kannski ekki alveg samrmi vi efni pistilssins, en engu a sur hugavert a sj a smvgilegar krnuskvettur geti haft svona hrif brautir gervihnatta:

Effects of Plasma Drag on Low Earth Orbiting Satellites due to Heating of Earth's Atmosphere by Coronal Mass Ejections
http://arxiv.org/abs/1305.0233

gst H Bjarnason, 21.1.2014 kl. 06:26

26 Smmynd: Brynjlfur orvarsson

Hilmar, etta er athyglisvert rit sem vsar . Verst a g fann ekki sjlfa greinina, aeins samantektina. Greinarhfundar sna tlfrilega fylgni milli sveiflna virkni slar og stu plnetanna mia vi slina.

Menn hafa lengi tta sig v a umferartmi Jpters og lengd slarsveiflunnar eru mjg nrri hvor annarri (c.a. 11 r). Einhverjir hafa svo teki Satrn me og fengi t enn betri nlgun vi sveiflutma slar. Orsakasamband milli essara tveggja sveiflna er hins vegar alls ljs - adrttaraflshrif jafnvel essara tveggja strstu plneta slina eru svo hverfandi ltil mia vi str slar og orku sem ar brst um.

Mr snist a greinarhfundar hafi fundi enn frekari fylgni milli lengri sveiflu og gangi allra plnetanna. annig s t.d. Maunder og Dalton lgmrkin (og fleiri) tengd kveinni stu plnetanna (ef g skil samantektina rtt). Enn er vandamli a orsakasamhengi er ekki ekkt, nokku sem veikir niurstur. Ekki a r su rangar, en a er kannski vafasamt a fullyra me eim htti sem greinarhfundar gera.

Sveiflur virkni slar eru mjg litlar egar heildar orkufli er mlt, hrifa eirra gti vissulega. egar hrifin eru borin saman vi reiknu hrif af aukningu CO2 virast au ekki geta skrt nverandi hlnun t fr geislun einni saman (eins og margir hafa bent ). annig hefur t.d. veri reikna t a minnkun orkufli slar Maunder lgmarkinu hafi geta lkka mealhita jrinni beint um mun minni tlu en t.d. nverandi hlnun.

mefylgjandi lnuriti m sj a tmum litlu saldarinnar lkkai hitastig norurhveli (raua lnan) um c.a. 0,4 grur a mealtali mean grna lnan snir hnttinn allan (sj nnari skringar hr: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png)

Rannsknir hj NASA benda vst til ess a sveiflan s strri tfjlublrri geislun slar, og a a geti haft mismunandi hrif milli sva, t.d. klnun Norur-Amerku og Norur-Evrpu.

Allt allt: Orsakasamhengi vantar milli gangs plnetna og slblettavirkni, tlfrilegt samhengi s vissulega til staar. Klnunarhrif jafnvel svsinna lgmarka eins og Maunder lgmarksins eru talsver, en mun minni en reiknu hlnunarhrif af vldum aukningar CO2.

Ef undirliggjandi hkkun hitastigs vegna CO2 er 0,2 grur ratug (sem sumir telja vanmeti) virist lgmark bor vi Maunder geta seinka hlnun um tvo ratugi ea svo.

Brynjlfur orvarsson, 21.1.2014 kl. 09:19

27 Smmynd: Brynjlfur orvarsson

gst, frslu 25 tengir vi grein sem setur fram kenningu a sveiflur slvirkni su litlar valdi endurvirkni v a hitasveiflurnar veri meiri.

stuttu mli snist mr greinarhfundur segja a nverandi hlnun eigi sr smu elisfrilegu orsakir og hitasveiflur saldarinnar (Milankovich sveiflan).

S orka sem jrin fr fr slu sveiflast me Milankovich sveiflum (sem rast af braut og halla jarar, ekki geislun slar). egar orkufli eykst hitna heimshfin og losa CO2 sem aftur veldur meiri hlnun. annig veri sveiflurnar milli kulda- og hlskeia mun meiri en ella. Mr vitanlega er etta umdeilt.

Greinarhfundur heldur v fram a svipa s a gerast nna, og hafi endurteki sig allt a 24 sinnum nverandi hlskeii: Sveiflur geislun slar valdi hlnun ea klnun sem aftur veldur v a hfin losa ea taka til sn CO2. Nverandi aukning CO2 s v til komin vegna mikillar slarvirkni mestalla 20. ldina.

Nnar tilteki bendlar greinarhfundur CO2 losun vi breytingar El Nino/La Nina sveifluna, sem virist rkrtt. En vaknar spurningin: Af hverju heldur CO2 fram a aukast svaxandi mli rtt fyrir neikva ENSO sveiflu sustu 15 rin?

Anna vandaml er a CO2 magn minnkai ekkert a ri Maunder lgmarkinu, og virist ekki hafa sveiflast neitt sem neinu nemur sastliin 1000 r fyrr en 20. ldinni. Til a kenningin haldi vatni arf a skra hina miklu aukningu CO2 nna me verulegri hlnun heimshafanna vegna verulega mikillar slvirkni, langt umfram a sem sst hefur sustu 1000 r.

Auvita gti a veri tilfelli - a slin hafi veri langtum virkari 20. ld en llu nverandi hlskeii. En vantar heimidlir fyrir og skringu eirri stareynd - og slkt virist hvergi a finna.

Hfin hafa vissulega hlna (og srustig eirra lkka) en langt fr ng til a skra aukningu CO2 andrmslofti. Hfin innihalda grarlegt magn af CO2 og eru talsvert undir mettun, .a. nverandi hlnun gti mesta falli minnka ltillega a hlutfall af mannlosuu CO2 magni sem hfin taka til sn (tla um 30%).

annig a allt allt snist mr greinarhfundur vera villigtum, en g ver a hrsa r fyrir a koma me alvru vsindagreinar inn umruna. hrif slar eru vissulega str vissuttur, og hr hafa komi fram mjg athyglisverar upplsingar um hugsanleg (og jafnvel lkleg) tengsl milli gang plnetna og sveiflna slvirkni. En allt allt s g ekki a hgt s a sp klnun jafnvel tt ntt Maunder minimum skylli .

Brynjlfur orvarsson, 21.1.2014 kl. 09:43

28 Smmynd: Brynjlfur orvarsson

gst, frsla 16 virist vera svar vi frslu 11 hj mr. a er vissulega rtt a nverandi sveifla stefnir a vera mjg lg, hins vegar hefur veri talsvert aukin virkni fr fyrir jl og srstaklega a sem af er janar. En varla ng til a hala heildartluna upp a neinu verulegu leyti.

Allt allt virist vera gott samhengi milli veurfarssveiflna og slarvirkni, allt fram til 1970. a snist mr benda til ess a eitthva anna er a valda nverandi hlnun og a sveiflur slarvirkni muni hafa takmrku hrif samanburi.

Hitt er svo anna a etta er mjg athyglisvert og gaman a pla essu. Samkvmt ENSO spm eru vsbendingar um a sveiflan s nna a komast t r eim neikva fasa sem hn hefur veri sastliin 15 r. a verur spennandi a sj hver hrifin vera af v, lofthiti hefur j hkka mjg lti essum neikva fasa, a m v bast vi a hann taki stkk uppvi ef fasinn verur jkvur.

Fyrir mr er arna um miklu lklegri sp a ra en a n sld s a hefjast vegna minnkandi slarvirkni. En auvita er a framtin sem mun sna hvaa spr reyndust rttar.

Brynjlfur orvarsson, 21.1.2014 kl. 10:03

29 identicon

Brynjlfur orvarsson kemst hr a gagnmerkri niurstu:

"Ef undirliggjandi hkkun hitastigs vegna CO2 er 0,2 grur ratug (sem sumir telja vanmeti) virist lgmark bor vi Maunder geta seinka hlnun um tvo ratugi ea svo."(sic)

Hvaa "hlnun" B? Jafnvel tmariti Nature hefur viurkennt a engin hnatthlnun hafi tt sr sta sustu 17 r! a arf enga framt til a sna fram a

Hilmar Hafsteinsson (IP-tala skr) 21.1.2014 kl. 11:51

30 Smmynd: Loftslag.is

N frsla um mli: Um yfirvofandi Litla sld

Loftslag.is, 21.1.2014 kl. 13:18

31 Smmynd: Brynjlfur orvarsson

Hilmar, a er n hgt a tlka mlin misjafnan htt. En ekki veit g hvort Nature hafi einhverja stefnu essum mlum! Og g held a hafir ekki neina grein Nature sem segir a engin "hnatthlnun" hafi ori "sustu 17 rin".

Til a komast a inni niurstu arf fyrsta lagi a skoa andrmslofti eingngu, en eins og eflaust veist, Hilmar, taka hfin til sn yfir 90% af orku slar. En byrjum v a skoa bara andrmslofti, og eingngu gervihnattamlingar NASA GISS (http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators#globalTemp).

Auvita er hgt a velja sr anna heitasta ri fr upphafi (1998) sem mig grunar a srt a gera og bera saman vi 2013 sem er a vsu ekki a fullu "komi hs" og sj a 2013 var kaldara. En 5 ra mealtal snir reyndar hlnun upp tplega 0,2 grur fr t.d. 1997 til 2009 (sasta ri me "fullt" 5 ra mealtal). Maur getur lengi vali sr upphafsr og lokar og fengi undarlegar niurstur.

Ef maur ber saman ratugina 1991-2000 og 2001-2010 er sari ratugurinn rmlega 2 grum hlrri en s fyrri.

Ea ef vi reiknum 17 r til baka, eins og (og Nature?) gera fr 2013 hefur hitastig hkka um ca 0,25 grur fr 1996.

Hins vegar m sj lnuritinu sem g hlekkjai a 5 ra mealtali hefur veri nnast flatt fr 2003. Slkar flatneskjur m einnig finna 1991-1994, 1967-1976 osfrv. a m v segja a mia vi 5 ra mealtal hefur andrmsloft ekki hlna sustu 10 r samkvmt GISS.

En segir "hnatthlnun" og a er auvita rangt. Hfin hlna hratt og hrai eirrar hlnunar hefur sst minnka.

Loks er rtt a benda a gervihnettir mla ekki beint nokku strt svi kringum Norurplinn, heldur er hitastig ar reikna t samkvmt kveinni formlu. Nlega hefur veri bent a essi formla vanmetur hitastigshkkun norurslum verulega - nokku sem arir eiga auvita eftir a rannsaka.

Brynjlfur orvarsson, 21.1.2014 kl. 13:52

32 identicon

Enn og aftur er B me vsindin hreinu:

"Og g held a hafir ekki neina grein Nature sem segir a engin "hnatthlnun" hafi ori "sustu 17 rin""(sic)

hefur greinilega ekki lesi "Climate change: The case of the missing heat

Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation" - tarlega samantekt sem birtist NATURE 15. janar 2014.

> http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525

"But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field. Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases."

"Now, as the global-warming hiatus enters its sixteenth year, scientists are at last making headway in the case of the missing heat. Some have pointed to the Sun, volcanoes and even pollution from China as potential culprits, but recent studies suggest that the oceans are key to explaining the anomaly. The latest suspect is the El Nio of 1997–98, which pumped prodigious quantities of heat out of the oceans and into the atmosphere — perhaps enough to tip the equatorial Pacific into a prolonged cold state that has suppressed global temperatures ever since."

"On a chart of global atmospheric temperatures, the hiatus stands in stark contrast to the rapid warming of the two decades that preceded it. Simulations conducted in advance of the 2013–14 assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that the warming should have continued at an average rate of 0.21 C per decade from 1998 to 2012. Instead, the observed warming during that period was just 0.04 C per decade, as measured by the UK Met Office in Exeter and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK."(!)

fyrirgefur, B, tt g haldi mig frekar vi treikninga og niurstur NATURE en greiningar heimasmuu tlvulkananna inna ;)

Hilmar Hafsteinsson (IP-tala skr) 21.1.2014 kl. 14:15

33 Smmynd: Brynjlfur orvarsson

Hilmar, a reyndist rtt sem g sagi. Greinin sem hlekkjar (sem er reyndar ekki vsindagrein eins og g bjst vi, en samt mjg g samantekt) segir nefnilega alls ekki a engin "hnatthlnun" hafi ori "sustu 17 rin" eins og hlst fram.

vert mti fjallar hn um hlnun andrmslofts - g er viss um a sjir muninn hlnun andrmslofts og hnatthlnun - og bendir a sustu 16 rin (ekki 17) hafi mealhiti hkka mjg lti.

Munurinn "hnatthlnun" og "hlnun andrmslofts" er svo langt fr a vera einhver trsnningur. Hlnun andrmsloftsins er innan vi 10% af hnattrnni hlnun. Spurning um 16 ea 17 r er auvita trsnningur, en ert svo fullyringaglaur a g mtti til me a hanka ig essu lka.

Loks styur greinin engan veginn fullyringu na sem lesa m t r frslu 29, a hnattrn hlnun hafi stvast. vert mti tlistar greinin gtlega hvernig skra m hina litlu hkkun hita andrmslofts fr 1998 - og essar skringar gefa litla stu til a halda a hlnun andrmslofts muni ekki halda fram eins og sp hefur veri.

vert mti bendir greinin vel ekktu stareynd a stand sjvar Kyrrahafi rur miklu um hlnun andrmslofts. egar ENSO er neikv stendur hlnun sta, egar ENSO er jkv hlnar hratt. ENSO er neikv sem stendur, en vsbendingar aukast um a hn stefni jkva stu sar essu ri (m.a. vegna mikils harmunar milli austur- og vesturhluta Kyrrahafs).

Loks nefnir greinin athyglisvera kenningu Mark Cane vi Columbia hsklann ess efnis a aukin hlnun gti leitt til lengri neikvra ENSO sveiflna. Ef rtt reynist (sem er umdeilt eins og greinin bendir ) mun hitafar framtarinnar einkennast af stuttum stkkum uppvi, en lngum flatneskjum milli. Heildarhlnun yri einnig nokku minni.

ar sem spr nna gera r fyrir allt a 4 til 6 gru hkkun fyrir 2100 mia vi "business as usual" CO2 losun (sem er auvita a eina sem mun gerast) held g a talan 0,2 um mealhkkun ratug s n frekar varfrnisleg hj mr.

Brynjlfur orvarsson, 22.1.2014 kl. 13:19

34 identicon

Hva maur a segja vi svona "rksemdafrslu" :)

1. B fullyrir "Ef undirliggjandi hkkun hitastigs vegna CO2 er 0,2 grur ratug (sem sumir telja vanmeti) virist lgmark bor vi Maunder geta seinka hlnun um tvo ratugi ea svo."(sic)

2. g bendi B glnja grein NATURE: "Hvaa "hlnun" B? Jafnvel tmariti Nature hefur viurkennt a engin hnatthlnun hafi tt sr sta sustu 17 r! a arf enga framt til a sna fram a." (enginn fullyring um "vsinda"grein - einungis g r e i n).

3. B svarar: "Hilmar, a reyndist rtt sem g sagi. Greinin sem hlekkjar (sem er reyndar ekki vsindagrein eins og g bjst vi, en samt mjg g samantekt) segir nefnilega alls ekki a engin "hnatthlnun" hafi ori "sustu 17 rin" eins og hlst fram."(sic)

Allir - a l l i r - smilega lsir menn geta lesi greinina, en ar stendur m.a.: "On a chart of global atmospheric temperatures, the hiatus stands in stark contrast to the rapid warming of the two decades that preceded it. Simulations conducted in advance of the 2013–14 assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that the warming should have continued at an average rate of 0.21 C per decade from 1998 to 2012. Instead, the observed warming during that period was just 0.04 C per decade, as measured by the UK Met Office in Exeter and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK."

etta er einfaldlega ekki hgt a skilja annan veg en kemur fram greininni, slensku:

"Tlvulkn/hermilkn undanfara 2013 - 14 samantektar IPCC benda til ess a hlnunin tti a halda fram me 0,21C aukningu ratug fr 1998 til 2012. sta ess snir raunhlnun tmabilinu einungis 0,04C aukningu ratug samkv. mlingum bresku veurstofunnar Exeter og loftslagsrannsknarmistvarinnar vi Hsklann East Anglia Norwich, Bretlandi."

Hlnun sem mlist 0,04C er svo smvgileg a hn flokkast undir su/flkkt mlum, .e. er ekki marktk. urnefndri grein er enda skrt teki fram a um rof/gat/eyu (hiatus) s a ra hnattrnni hlnun fr 1998 a telja!

En fram umbast B vrninni fyrir "stra planinu" - hnatthlnun af manna vldum skal a heita hva sem raular og tautar. Tlum saman eftir 10 r og sjum hversu miki stendur eftir af skhyggjunni inni :)

Hilmar Hafsteinsson (IP-tala skr) 22.1.2014 kl. 18:42

35 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

trend

Helstu hitaferlar fr u..b. 1997 og lengstu lrttu leitnilnur (summa minnstu kvarata)
sem sna enga hkkun hitastigs vikomandi ferils. Vinstra megin myndinni m sj
hva essar leitnilnur n yfir langt tmabil, .e. hve lengi hlnunin hefur stai sta.
Hrm einfaldan htt leika sr a myndinni, t.d. breyta tmabilum ofl.

Um vefsuna Wood for Trees: www.woodfortrees.org

gst H Bjarnason, 22.1.2014 kl. 18:55

36 Smmynd: Brynjlfur orvarsson

Hilmar, virist ekki enn skilja muninn hlnun andrmslofts og hnattrnni hlnun. Greinin Nature gefur ekki tilefni til a segja a hnatthlnun hafi stvast.

vitnar Nature sem talar um "global atmospheric temperatures". En talar sfellt um hnattrna hlnun ea hnatthlnun. Hnattrn hlnun skiptist c.a. 90% hfin en 2% andrmsloft (afgangurinn er uppgufun og brnun ss). Hfin hlna hratt annig a hnattrn hlnun er talsver, en sama tma hlnar andrmslofti mun hgar.

Svo ruglar saman v a blaamaur Nature skrifi grein og a tmariti Nature hafi "viurkennt" eitthva - sem ar a auki er ekki hgt a lesa t r greininni.

Greinin talar ekki um hnatthlnun - hn talar um hlnun andrmslofts. Og a sem stendur greininni er ekkert ruvsi en a sem mrg nnur vsindarit og vefsur hafa veri a segja. a er ekkert ntt arna, engin "viurkenning" neinu sem mlir gegn v sem g sagi: a hlnun andrmslofts komandi framt m (varlega) tla 0,2 grur ratug.

Annars eru komnar njar tlur fyrir 2013, samkvmt NOAA var etta fjra heitasta ri fr upphafi mlinga.

Greinin Nature fjallar a verulegu leyti um skringu nverandi tf hlnun (sem er ekki 17 r, frekar um 8 r, allt eftir hvernig maur mlir) a undanfari hafi ENSO veri neikvri stu.

etta ir, fyrir alla smilega lsa menn, a egar ENSO fer aftur jkva stu mun hlna hratt. Mig langar a vitna grein um njustu tlur fr NOAA og NASA hj San Fransisco Chronicle http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/NOAA-World-in-2013-was-4th-hottest-on-record-5162377.php:

"Usually the weather event called El Nino, a warming of the central Pacific, is responsible for boosting already warm years into the world's hottest years. But in 2013, there was no El Nino."

greininni Nature er samspil ENSO og hlnunar andrmsloft snt mjg vel. annig einkenndist t.d. 1998 af mjg sterkum El Nino, en a r var anna hljasta ri fr upphafi mlinga. Hljasta ri, 2010, einkenndist af mjg veikum El Nino.

Aftur r San Fransisco Chronicle:

"The fact that a year with no El Nino "was so hot tells me that the climate really is shifting," said Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist, who was not part of either the NOAA or NASA teams."

Lnuriti Nature snir reyndar a nverandi kaldi fasi hefjist c.a. 2006/7. Arir vilja fra essa tlu alveg aftur til 1999. San hafa veri 8 r me La Nina (kalt), 4 r me El Nino (heitt), afgangurinn hlutlaust. A mealtali hefur staan veri neikv fr 1999.

En ar sem hlnun andrmsloftsins hefur stai sta fr um 2005 passar lnuriti hj Nature gtlega.

neikva hluta sveiflunnar frir Kyrrahafi strri hluta eirrar orku sem a fellur niur djpi. Yfirbor er kalt vegna uppstreymis djpsjvar, a hefur svo hrif hitastig andrmslofts, lofthiti er lgri en ella. jkvum fasa er mun minni niurfrsla orku, yfirbori nr a hlna mun meira, sem aftur leiir til hlrra veurfars en ella.

Hver runin andrmslofti verur fer a mjg miklu leyti eftir hegun ENSO sveiflunnar framtinni. Neikvar sveiflur munu draga r hlnun, jkvar sveiflur ta undir hana.

Undanfarin 50 r hefur hntturinn hlna um 0,8 grur, ea a jafnai um 0,16 gru ratug. Fyrri hluta ess timabils var hlnunin c.a. 50/50 slin og CO2. sari hluta tmabilsins hefur slin klna en hlnunin aukist. CO2 magn andrmslofti fer mjg vaxandi og hlnunarhrif ess aukast a sama skapi. Veri nstu 50 rin svipu hva ENSO varar m reikna me minnst 0,2 gru hkkun ratug.

Og vel minnst: Greinin Nature efast ekki nokkurn htt um hlnun andrmslofts af manna vldum.

Brynjlfur orvarsson, 23.1.2014 kl. 08:41

37 Smmynd: Brynjlfur orvarsson

gst, etta er nokku gott lnurit hj r frslu 35.

Mig langar til samanburar a benda etta lnurit:

Brynjlfur orvarsson, 23.1.2014 kl. 08:47

38 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

etta er lklega sama myndin.
Ef vdei opnast ekki egar smellt er a, m prfa a smella : Opna video.

gst H Bjarnason, 23.1.2014 kl. 11:06

39 identicon

byrjar B auvita ekktu rursbragi kolefnisklerka: " virist ekki enn skilja...":)

Skilningur er nefnilega ekki skilningur skilningi kolefnistrarinnar nema hann komi heim og saman vi skilning kolefnistrarinnar - skilur a?

Tmariti NATURE hefur hinga til ekki veri ekkt fyrir a efast um meinta "hnatthlnun af manna vldum". a stir v tindum a umrtt tmarit skuli opna ntt r umfjllun um tndu hnatthlnunina.

B tekur hefbundnu flttamannaleiina umruna me v a kafa ofan undirdjpin leit a hlnun. Vandamli er bara a fr og me sustu aldamtum hafa thfin veri a ... k l n a! ;)

En m n alltaf vona a a hlni "egar ENSO fer aftur jkva stu"! Eigum vi bara ekki a taka ann snning umruna og ef a gerist B? Er a ekki full bratt hj menntamanninum a fara a teikna upp framtarfantasu sem ntmasannleik?

Mr snist svo HB svara gtlega niurlagi speglasjna B. :)

Hilmar Hafsteinsson (IP-tala skr) 23.1.2014 kl. 13:42

40 Smmynd: Gunnar Th. Gunnarsson

Hr athyglisvert myndband: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C35pasCr6KI

arna kemur m.a. fram a vsindamenn veigri sr vi v a standa opinberlega gegn global warming hysterunni, vegna ess a a gti stai gegn starfsframa eirra. ess vegna er mealaldur eirra sem spyrja gagnrnna spurninga um manngera hnatthlnun, mjg hr og gnar v ekki lengur starfsframanum.

v hefur treka veri haldi fram af alarmistum, a 97% loftslagsvsindamanna s sammla um manngera hnatthlnun. a er rangt, en hvers vegna beita menn slkum rksemdum?

Hr m sj umfjllun um "Climate consensus" : http://www.climaterealists.org.nz/sites/climaterealists.org.nz/files/Legatesetal13-Aug30-Agnotology%5B1%5D.pdf

Gunnar Th. Gunnarsson, 23.1.2014 kl. 16:08

41 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Sll Gunnar.

g er sammla essum remenningum sem komu fram myndbandinu sem vsair http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C35pasCr6KI

Varandi sasta atrii sem fr Gillard varpai fram og remenningarnir svruu, er etta ekki flki ml, srstaklega ef menn kunna a mehndla logarithmiskar tlur.

Sj etta myndband: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zw5Lda06iK0

gst H Bjarnason, 23.1.2014 kl. 19:46

42 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Varandi seinni tilvsun na um "97% loftslagsvsindamannina" http://www.climaterealists.org.nz/sites/climaterealists.org.nz/files/Legatesetal13-Aug30-Agnotology%5B1%5D.pdf ekki g einn tt mlsins:


Maur er nefndur Dr Richard Tol. Hann er prfessor hagfri vi hsklann Sussex. Ef g klippi t smvegis um hann sem stendur vefsu hsklans:

"...He is ranked among the top 100 economists in the world, and has over 200 publications in learned journals (with 100+ co-authors), 3 books, 5 major reports, 37 book chapters, and many minor publications. He specialises in the economics of energy, environment, and climate, and is interested in integrated assessment modelling. He is an editor for Energy Economics, and an associate editor of economics the e-journal. He is advisor and referee of national and international policy and research. He is an author (contributing, lead, principal and convening) of Working Groups I, II and III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, shared winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007; an author and editor of the UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies; a GTAP Research Fellow; and a member of the Academia Europaea. He is actively involved in the European Climate Forum, the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment, and the Energy Modeling Forum".

Eins og sj m er hann algjr ungavigtarmaur essum frum og m.a. leiandi hfundur skrslu loftslagsnefndar Sameinuu janna IPCC.

Dr. Richard Tol skrifai Dr. Peter Hj forseta University of Queensland mjg harort brf vegna vinnubraga John Cook eins hfundar "97% vsindamanna" skrslunnar og starfsmanns University of Queensland.

etta brf vera allir, sem heyrt hafa vitna til "97% loftslagsvsindamanna" a lesa og skilja. eir vera lka a vita hver a er sem skrifai brfi, .e. einn af aalhfundum (leading author) loftslagsskrslu IPCC.

Brfi m lesa heild sinni hr: http://richardtol.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/open-letter-to-vice-chancellor-of.html

etta er a merkilegt og miklivgt a g tek mr bessaleyfi of afrita innihald ess hr fyrir nean (etta er "open letter" svo a tti a vera lagi):

--- --- ---

Richard Tol
Posted 27th August 2013 by Richard S J Tol

Open letter to the Vice-chancellor of the University of Queensland

Dear Professor Hj,

I was struck by a recent paper published in Environmental Research Letters with John Cook, a University of Queensland employee, as the lead author. The paper purports to estimate the degree of agreement in the literature on climate change. Consensus is not an argument, of course, but my attention was drawn to the fact that the headline conclusion had no confidence interval, that the main validity test was informal, and that the sample contained a very large number of irrelevant papers while simultaneously omitting many relevant papers.

My interest piqued, I wrote to Mr Cook asking for the underlying data and received 13% of the data by return email. I immediately requested the remainder, but to no avail.

I found that the consensus rate in the data differs from that reported in the paper. Further research showed that, contrary to what is said in the paper, the main validity test in fact invalidates the data. And the sample of papers does not represent the literature. That is, the main finding of the paper is incorrect, invalid and unrepresentative.

Furthermore, the data showed patterns that cannot be explained by either the data gathering process as described in the paper or by chance. This is documented at https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bz17rNCpfuDNRllTUWlzb0ZJSm8/edit?usp=sharing

I asked Mr Cook again for the data so as to find a coherent explanation of what is wrong with the paper. As that was unsuccessful, also after a plea to Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, the director of Mr Cook’s work place, I contacted Professor Max Lu, deputy vice-chancellor for research, and Professor Daniel Kammen, journal editor. Professors Lu and Kammen succeeded in convincing Mr Cook to release first another 2% and later another 28% of the data.

I also asked for the survey protocol but, violating all codes of practice, none seems to exist. The paper and data do hint at what was really done. There is no trace of a pre-test. Rating training was done during the first part of the survey, rather than prior to the survey. The survey instrument was altered during the survey, and abstracts were added. Scales were modified after the survey was completed. All this introduced inhomogeneities into the data that cannot be controlled for as they are undocumented.

The later data release reveals that what the paper describes as measurement error (in either direction) is in fact measurement bias (in one particular direction). Furthermore, there is drift in measurement over time. This makes a greater nonsense of the paper.


I went back to Professor Lu once again, asking for the remaining 57% of the data. Particularly, I asked for rater IDs and time stamps. Both may help to understand what went wrong.

Only 24 people took the survey. Of those, 12 quickly dropped out, so that the survey essentially relied on just 12 people. The results would be substantially different if only one of the 12 were biased in one way or the other. The paper does not report any test for rater bias, an astonishing oversight by authors and referees. If rater IDs are released, these tests can be done.

Because so few took the survey, these few answered on average more than 4,000 questions. The paper is silent on the average time taken to answer these questions and, more importantly, on the minimum time. Experience has that interviewees find it difficult to stay focused if a questionnaire is overly long. The questionnaire used in this paper may have set a record for length, yet neither the authors nor the referees thought it worthwhile to test for rater fatigue. If time stamps are released, these tests can be done.

Mr Cook, backed by Professor Hoegh-Guldberg and Lu, has blankly refused to release these data, arguing that a data release would violate confidentiality. This reasoning is bogus.

I don’t think confidentiality is relevant. The paper presents the survey as a survey of published abstracts, rather than as a survey of the raters. If these raters are indeed neutral and competent, as claimed by the paper, then tying ratings to raters would not reflect on the raters in any way.

If, on the other hand, this was a survey of the raters’ beliefs and skills, rather than a survey of the abstracts they rated, then Mr Cook is correct that their identity should remain confidential. But this undermines the entire paper: It is no longer a survey of the literature, but rather a survey of Mr Cook and his friends.

If need be, the association of ratings to raters can readily be kept secret by means of a standard confidentiality agreement. I have repeatedly stated that I am willing to sign an agreement that I would not reveal the identity of the raters and that I would not pass on the confidential data to a third party either on purpose or by negligence.

I first contacted Mr Cook on 31 May 2013, requesting data that should have been ready when the paper was submitted for peer review on 18 January 2013. His foot-dragging, condoned by senior university officials, does not reflect well on the University of Queensland’s attitude towards replication and openness. His refusal to release all data may indicate that more could be wrong with the paper.

Therefore, I hereby request, once again, that you release rater IDs and time stamps.

Yours sincerely,




Richard Tol
Posted 27th August 2013 by Richard S J Tol


Svo mrg voru au or.

gst H Bjarnason, 23.1.2014 kl. 20:19

43 identicon

essi afhjpun svika- og blekkingaleik John C(r)ook, staprests hj skepticalscience.com er sannarlega fellisdmur yfir eim vinnubrgum sem essi boberi trarinnar "hnatthlnun af manna vldum" stundar.

S stareynd beinir sjnum a slenskum systurvef skepticalscience.com, loftslag.is, sem Veurstofa slands reytist seint a lofsama.

Ritstjrar loftslag.is, Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson og Hskuldur Bi Jnsson, hafa einmitt hamra "rannsknarniurstum" um 97% samhug vsindamanna. Annar essara manna, Hskuldur Bi, er menntaur jarfringur fr H!

Hilmar Hafsteinsson (IP-tala skr) 23.1.2014 kl. 20:58

44 Smmynd: Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson

etta voru nokkur or af bloggsu Tol's, sem gst vitnar til. a er oft best a lesa svr eirra sem er veri a gagnrna beint, sj tengil hr undir, ar sem m.a. kemur fram:

economist Richard Tol has made [comments] about our paper on his personal blog. He submitted those comments to the journal that published our paper, Environmental Research Letters, whose editor promptly rejected it. The editor noted that in addition to being "written in a rather opinionated style" and reading "more like a blog post than a scientific comment," "I do not see that the submission has identified any clear errors in the Cook et al. paper that would call its conclusions into question."

Sj nnar, Debunking New Myths about the 97% Expert Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming

Richard Tol er vsindamaur og einn hfunda IPCC skrslnanna (einn af sundum) - hr m lesa eitthva um kappann, m.a. eftirfarandi:

He was also among the US Senate Republican Party's "list of scientists disputing man-made global warming claims", which stated that Tol "dismissed the idea that mankind must act now to prevent catastrophic global warming"

En annars er g hissa a sasta athugasemd Hilmars hafi sloppi gegnum nlarauga ritstjrnar suhaldara, ar sem a athugasemdir eiga a vera "skrifaar n sktings og neikvni gar annarra" - bara vinsamleg bending til suhaldara.

Takk fyrir a f tkifri til a koma minni athugasemd framfri.

Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 23.1.2014 kl. 23:15

45 Smmynd: Gunnar Th. Gunnarsson

a er magna a lesa etta #42.

"Mr Cook, backed by Professor Hoegh-Guldberg and Lu, has blankly refused to release these data, arguing that a data release would violate confidentiality". Hvers vegna eru ggnin trnaarml?

Dr. Tool svarar essu gtlega kmskan htt:

"If, on the other hand, this was a survey of the raters’ beliefs and skills, rather than a survey of the abstracts they rated, then Mr Cook is correct that their identity should remain confidential. But this undermines the entire paper: It is no longer a survey of the literature, but rather a survey of Mr Cook and his friends."

Gunnar Th. Gunnarsson, 24.1.2014 kl. 03:12

Bta vi athugasemd

Ekki er lengur hgt a skrifa athugasemdir vi frsluna, ar sem tmamrk athugasemdir eru liin.

Höfundur

Ágúst H Bjarnason
Ágúst H Bjarnason

Verkfr. hjá Verkís.
agbjarn-hjá-gmail.com

Audiatur et altera pars

Aðeins málefnalegar athugasemdir, sem eiga ótvíætt við efni viðkomandi pistils, og skrifaðar án skætings og neikvæðni í garð annarra, og að jafnaði undir fullu nafni, verða birtar. 

Um bloggi

Ginnungagap

mislegt

Loftslag

Click to get your own widget

Teljari

free counters

lver

http://metalprices.com/PubCharts/PublicCharts.aspx?metal=al&type=L&weight=t&days=12&size=M&bg=&cs=1011&cid=0

Slin dag:

(Smella mynd)

.

Oluveri dag:

Heimsknir

Flettingar

  • dag (24.5.): 3
  • Sl. slarhring: 7
  • Sl. viku: 76
  • Fr upphafi: 762631

Anna

  • Innlit dag: 1
  • Innlit sl. viku: 59
  • Gestir dag: 1
  • IP-tlur dag: 1

Uppfrt 3 mn. fresti.
Skringar

Ma 2024
S M M F F L
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

Innskrning

Ath. Vinsamlegast kveiki Javascript til a hefja innskrningu.

Hafu samband