The Great Global Warming Swindle. hugaver kvikmynd sem frumsnd var fyrir skmmu.

111Sasliinn fimmtudag (8. mars) var frslumyndin "The GreatGlobal WarmingSwindle" snd sjnvarpsstinni Channel 4 Englandi. Myndin vakti mikla athygli.

myndinni kemur fram fjldi ekktra vsindamanna og segir lit sitt hnatthitunarkenningunni. Lta m myndina sem andsvar vi mynd Al Gore "An Inconvenient Truth", en munurinn er s a hr eru a vsindmenn, en ekki stjrnmlamaur,sem tala.Framsetning essara tveggja kvikmynda er v lk. essi kvikmynd The Great Global Warming Swindleer jafnvel enn hugaverari en kvikmynd Gore.

Vefsa Channel 4 ar sem myndin er kynnt er hr.333

Umsgn Ragnars Bjarnasonar "Svindl ea ekki?" er hr.

Sjn er sgu rkari.

Kvikmyndin er hr fullri lengd Google Video (1 klst 15 mntur). ***** fr 5 stjrnur hj Google.

19. jn 2007. Prfa hr ef krkjan hr a ofan virkar ekki.

(Myndina m skoa fullri skjstr me v a smella myndfltinn. Hgt er a velja um hvort myndin er skou venjulegumvefskoara, ea hvort myndinni er hlai niur fyrst og san skou me srstku forriti sem hgt er a skja. Betri myndgi nst annig, en meira vesen).

Hr er torrentinn.

etta er mynd sem hugsandi flk ltur ekki fram hj sr fara. Sjlfsagt er hn ekki sur umdeild en mynd Al Gore.

Kynning myndinni vefsu Channel 4:

The Programme:

The film brings together the arguments of leading scientists who disagree with the prevailing consensus that carbon dioxide released by human industrial activity is the cause of rising global temperatures today.

That Earth's climate is changing and always has done is not disputed by anyone. That it is warming now is also not disputed by anyone. But some people think that the warming is our fault, whilst others believe we have nothing to do with it.

The film argues that rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide have nothing to do with climate change. Further, the present single-minded focus on reducing carbon emissions may have the unintended consequence of stifling development in the third world, prolonging endemic poverty and disease.

Recent research, presented in this film, apparently shows that the effect of cosmic radiation, and solar activity may explain fluctuations in global temperatures more precisely than the carbon dioxide theory.

An alternative explanation for rising global temperatures is based on research by the Danish Space Center. They found that as solar activity increases, cloud formation on Earth is significantly diminished and temperature rises.

‘Solar activity over the last hundred years, over the last several hundred years, correlates very nicely, on a decadal basis, with temperature.’

A respected Kenyan development expert says: ‘I don't see how a solar panel is going to power a steel industry, how a solar panel is going to power a railway network… There is somebody keen to kill the African dream, and the African dream is to develop. We are being told don't touch your resources, don't touch your oil, don't touch your coal; that is suicide.’

The film features an impressive roll-call of experts, in climatology, oceanography, meteorology, environmental science, biogeography and paleoclimatology, from such reputable institutions as MIT, Nasa, the International Arctic Research Centre, the Institut Pasteur, the Danish National Space Center and the Universities of London, Ottawa, Jerusalem, Winnipeg, Alabama and Virginia.

The arguments:

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is one long story of climate change. This fact is pretty much accepted by those who think global warming is a natural process, and those who think it's caused by man.

In more recent history there has been: a mini ice age in the seventeenth century when the Thames froze so solidly that fairs could regularly be held on the ice; a Medieval Warm Period, even balmier than today; and sunnier still was the so-called Holocene Maximum, which was the warmest period in the last 10,000 years.

Those who think global warming is a natural process point to the fact that in the last 10,000 years, the warmest periods have happened well before humans started to produce large amounts of carbon dioxide.

A detailed look at recent climate change reveals that the temperature rose prior to 1940 but unexpectedly dropped in the post-war economic boom, when carbon dioxide emissions rose dramatically.

There is some evidence to suggest that the rise in carbon dioxide lags behind the temperature rise by 800 years and therefore can't be the cause of it.

In the greenhouse model of global warming, heat from the sun's rays is trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. If it weren't for these gases, Earth would be too cold for life.

Greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun within the earth's atmosphere. This is the greenhouse effect. Traditional models predict that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to runaway heating.

If greenhouse warming were happening, then scientists predict that the troposphere (the layer of the earth's atmosphere roughly 10-15km above us) should heat up faster than the surface of the planet, but data collected from satellites and weather balloons doesn't seem to support this.

Those who think global warming is a natural process say that the troposphere is not heating up because man-made greenhouse gases are not causing the planet to heat up.

For some people, the final nail in the coffin of human-produced greenhouse gas theories is the fact that carbon dioxide is produced in far larger quantities by many natural means: human emissions are miniscule in comparison. Volcanic emissions and carbon dioxide from animals, bacteria, decaying vegetation and the ocean outweigh our own production several times over.

Others would argue that carbon dioxide isn't the only greenhouse gas and that human emissions could tip up a finely balanced system.

New evidence shows that that as the radiation coming from the sun varies (and sun-spot activity is one way of monitoring this) the earth seems to heat up or cool down. Solar activity very precisely matches the plot of temperature change over the last 100 years. It correlates well with the anomalous post-war temperature dip, when global carbon dioxide levels were rising.

In fact, what is known of solar activity over the last several hundred years correlates very well with temperature. This is what some scientists are beginning to believe causes climate change. Others feel that solar activity only explains the fine details of temperature change.

So how does the sun affect the earth's temperature? The process scientists suggest is that as earth moves through space, the atmosphere is constantly bombarded by ever-present cosmic rays. As these particles hit water vapour evaporating from the oceans, clouds form in the atmosphere. Clouds shield Earth from some of the sun's radiation and have a cooling effect.

When solar activity is high, there is an increase in solar wind and this has the effect of reducing the amount of cosmic radiation which reaches Earth.

When less cosmic radiation reaches Earth, fewer clouds form and the full effects of the sun's radiation heats the planet. But is the effect of solar activity really enough to explain away global warming caused by the greenhouse effect?

Vsindamenn sem koma fram myndinni:

-- Dr. Pat Michaels - Prfessor umhverfisvsindum, University of Virginia

-- Dr. Richard Lindzen - Prfessor veurfri, MIT

-- Dr. Henrik Svensmark - Forstumaur Centre for Sun-Climate Research vi Danish National Space Center

-- Dr. Eigil Friis-Christensen - Forstumaur Danish Space Center

-- Dr. Tim Ball - Loftslagsfringur. Prfessor emeritus vi University of Winnipeg

-- Dr. Ian Clark - Prfessor Isotope hydrogeology og fornveurfri, University of Ottawa

-- Nigel Calder - Fyrrum ritstjri New Scientist Editor. Hfundur samt Henrik Svensmark a bkinni The Chilling Stars

-- Dr. Philip Stott - Prfessor Emeritus Biogeography, University of London

-- Dr. Nir Shaviv - Associate Prfessor, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

-- Dr. Paul Reiter - Prfessor, Institut Pasteur, Pars

-- Dr. John Christy - Prfessor og forstumaur Earth System Science Center, NSSTC University of Alabama

-- Dr. Roy Spencer - Principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville. In the past, he served as Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama

-- Dr. Patrick Moore - Stofnai Greenpeace samt fleirum.

-- Dr. Piers Corbyn - Forstumaur Weather Action

-- Nigel Lawson - Lord Lawson of Blaby

-- Dr. Carl Wunsch - Prfessor elisfrilegri haffri, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, MIT. Eftir a myndin var frumsnd kvartai Carl Wunsch yfir v a hann hefi ekki vita hvers konar mynd vri veri a framleia. a er v vert a fylgjast srstaklega vel me v hann segir myndinni. Sj grein um mli hr hj The National Post

-- Dr. Fred Singer - President Science & Environmental Policy Project, Prfessor vi George Mason University og Prfessor Emeritus umhverfisvsindum vi University of Virginia

-- Dr. Chris Landsea - Formerly a research meteorologist with Hurricane Research Division of Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory at NOAA, is now the Science AND Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center

-- James Shikiwati - Kenyan economist and Director of the Inter Region Economic Network

-- Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu - Director of the International Arctic research Centre

Sasta frsla | Nsta frsla


1 Smmynd: Morten Lange


Vil benda lesendum umru essu bloggi :

Morten Lange, 11.3.2007 kl. 09:33

2 Smmynd: Ragnar Bjarnason

S a ert binn a finna myndina heild sinni netinu. Magna hj r. g mli me vi a menn gefi sr tma til a horfa essa mynd, a er llum hollt a reyna a sj hlutina fr fleiri en einu sjnarhorni.

Ragnar Bjarnason, 11.3.2007 kl. 10:03

3 Smmynd: Mara Bjrg gstsdttir

g hlakka til a kkja myndina, geri a egar trnin er bin. g er lka sammla Ragnari Bjarnasyni um a hva sem llu lur er mnnum alltaf hollt a reyna a lta hlutina fr bum hlium.

Mara Bjrg gstsdttir, 11.3.2007 kl. 10:42

4 Smmynd: Sigurgeir Orri Sigurgeirsson

hugavert. Hr er torrentinn:

Sigurgeir Orri Sigurgeirsson, 11.3.2007 kl. 10:52

5 Smmynd: Leifur orsteinsson

etta me a hitastig jarar hkki vega aukins koltvsrings lofhjpnum

af mannavldum er vgast sagt trverugt. Fyrir a fyrsta er s skring

sem sett er fram a 3 til 4 tusundasti hluti af loftrminu, a er s tting

sem CO2 hefur andrms loftinu, stvi (endurkasti) hitageisla fr jrinni

og orsaki hitun loftsins, ef svo vri tti CO2 a stva astreymi hitageisla

fr slu til jarar og jafnvgi v a vera nlli.

a sem eindregi mlir mti essari kenningu eru mjg svo reianlegar

mlingar sem sna framm a a hitastig jarar fylgir algjrlega virkni slar,

beinar mlingar eru til fr rinu 1840 til dagsins dag, og me athugun C14

og sborkjrnum hefur etta veri reikna langt aftur aldir.

Einig ttu slendingar a huga betur a sgunni sem segir okkur tluvert um

hitastig jara. Vi landnm og fram til 15 aldar var hr stundu akuryrkja og

hinn mikli Vatnajkull bar nafni Klofajkull sem varla arf a tskra hva

ir. San upphefst a sem sgunni er kllu litla sld og jinni fkur

allt niur 1/3. Um seinni hluta 19 aldar fer a hitna aftur og dag vantar

tluvert upp a n hafi veri hitastigi Landnms tmans.

strum eldgosum sem ori hafa eftir a sgur hfust, hafa steymt t lofti

lofttegundir CO2, metan og anna sem taldar eru me hinum svo klluu grur-

hsa loftegundum eim mli a svarar til 2-300 ra framleislu mannsins

dag eim. Hitastigs hkkunar hefur aldrei ori vart kjlfar essara eldgosa

vert mti hefur vegna gjskuryks (svifryk) ori talsver klnun, samanber Mu-

harindin marg frgu, ar sem slargeislar nu takmrkuu magni til jarar.

Sagan og reynslan sannar a allt tal um grurhsa hrif er vgast sagt undarlegt.

Hva skyldi valda. eir stjrnmlamenn sem geta tali almenningi tr um a mann-

kyni s a tortma sr me lifnaar snum, f takmrku vld yfir mnnunum,

etta vissi Kirkjan snum tma, en var a vistin helvti sem blasti vi eim sem

ekki tru.

Leifur orsteinsson, 11.3.2007 kl. 10:53

6 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Vsindamenn sem koma fram myndinni:

--Pat Michaels - Professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia

--Richard Lindzen - Professor of Meteorology, MIT

--Carl Wunsch - Professor of Physical Oceanography, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, MIT

--Fred Singer - President Science & Environmental Policy Project, Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia

--Henrik Svensmark - Director of the Centre for Sun-Climate Research under the Danish National Space Center

--Eigil Friis-Christensen - Director of the Danish Space Center

--Tim Ball - Emeritus professor of geography at the University of Winnipeg

--Ian Clark - Prof. Isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology Dept of Earth Sciences University of Ottawa

--Nigel Calder - Science Writer/Former New Scientist Editor/ Author of the new book The Chilling Stars

--Philip Stott - Professor Emeritus of Biogeography at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London

--Nir Shaviv - Associate Professor, Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

--Paul Reiter - Professor , Institut Pasteur; Paris

--Dr. John Christy - Professor and Director Earth System Science Center, NSSTC University of Alabama

--Roy Spencer - Principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville. In the past, he served as Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama

--Patrick Moore - Co-founder of Greenpeace

--Piers Corbyn - Head of Weather Action

--Nigel Lawson - Former Chancellor of the Exchequer/ Lord Lawson of Blaby

--Chris Landsea - Formerly a research meteorologist with Hurricane Research Division of Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory at NOAA, is now the Science AND Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center

--James Shikiwati - Kenyan economist and Director of the Inter Region Economic Network

--Syun-Ichi Akasofu - Director of the International Arctic research Centre

(Fyrir sem gaman hafa af ttfri, er Lord Nigel Lawson pabbi Nigellu Nigelsdttur sperkokks sjnvarpinu).

gst H Bjarnason, 11.3.2007 kl. 11:23

7 Smmynd: Sigurur r Gujnsson

N eru veurfringar og arir fringar t.d. Haraldur lafsson og Ingibjrg Elsa Bjrnsdttir a segja a hkunn hitastigs undanfarin r stafi EKKI af aukinni virkni slar. essi sa n er mjg nausynleg til mtvgis vi - , veist hva!

Sigurur r Gujnsson, 11.3.2007 kl. 12:29

8 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Sll Sigurur: "We live in extraordinarily hot times, says Sami Solanki of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany...." Sj Natioal Post fyrradag:

etta kemur allt ljs me tmanum. "The essence of science is that it is self correcting" er haft eftir Carl Sagan ( Sem betur fer er a enn fullu gildi.

gst H Bjarnason, 11.3.2007 kl. 12:39

9 identicon

hugavert. a er samt sem ur stareynd a 9 af hverjum 10 vsindamnnum eru eirri skoun hlnun jarar eigi sr sta afmiklum hluta til vegna grurhsahrifa. Margiressara vsindamanna hafa einnig sagt a breyting braut jarar kringum slina eigi einhvern tt essu. En g er alls ekki viss hverjum maur a tra v au rk sem fr voru fram myndinni eru svo sannarlega g. Frbrt a sj essa mynd og akka g hr me fyrir mig.

Gujn r lafsson (IP-tala skr) 11.3.2007 kl. 15:26

10 Smmynd: Morten Lange

Oft egar eitthva strt og spennandi kemur fr eim sem ekki tra loftlagsbreytingar af mannavldum, m lesa gagnryni Svo er lka etta skipti.

Morten Lange, 11.3.2007 kl. 16:09

11 Smmynd:

a vri gt a vita hverjir stu fyrir frjrmgnun myndini. a getur veri er str vsbending., 11.3.2007 kl. 17:23

12 identicon

Nú einmitt er framleiðandi myndarinnar, Martin Durkin, þekktur fyrir að klippa til viðtöl til þess að þau henti hans sjónarmiði; og þar að auki þá eru mörg rökin í myndinni holótt eða meingölluð. Í grundvallaratriðum er þessi mynd ótrúverðu á alla þá vegu sem að An Inconvenient Truth er trúverðug, og ef að menn ætla sér að hnekkja á kenningum um gróðurhúsaáhrif af mannavöldum þurfa þeir að byrja á því að fá trúverðugt fólk til þess að gera trúverðugar rannsóknir og birta trúverðugar niðurstöður utan við útþynntu æsifréttaháðu alþýðuvísindamenninguna.

Smri McCarthy (IP-tala skr) 11.3.2007 kl. 18:11

13 Smmynd: mar rn Hauksson

Um lei og svona mynd kemur fram koma samsriskenningarmennirnir t r felum og segja hana klippta og skorna til ess a f r niurstur sem framleiandinn vill. Er Inconvinient truth ekki lka klippt til og fr til ess a f niurstu sem eir eru a skjast eftir?

An inconvinient truth er ekki h heimildarmynd, hn er ger til ess a segja a vi sum a eyileggja jrina. Hn spyr aldrei hvort a essir hlutir su rttir heldur snir fram ggn sem ta undir eirra skoun. Global Warming swindle segir a etta s hystera og a etta su elilegir hlutir sem gerast jrinni. losun okkar koltvsring mia vi allt anna jrinni er svo ltil a a tti ekki a hafa essar gfurlegu afleyingar eins og margir vilja halda. Gott dmi er myndskeii sem snir stkkun og hnignun splanna tunda ratuginum sem greinilega snir a essir plar stkka og minka af algerlega elilegum stum.

Allar svona myndir hafa ann tilgang a breyta skounum flks. a arf einhver hur, sem er ekki a berjast fyrir essum mlum, me ea mti til a gera almennilega rannskn og heimildarmynd til a komast a hinu sanna.

mar rn Hauksson, 11.3.2007 kl. 19:48

14 Smmynd: Leifur orsteinsson

Andrs kemur me smu gmlu tugguna a einhver sluaili

s a greia fyrir srsta tkomu. etta er ekta vinstri villa.

Smri vill meina a Al Gore s reianlegur. a ngir a benda

atrii myndinni sem allir ekkja v a er nota til a kynna

myndina og snir skrijkul kelfa sj fram og Al Gore segir

texta a etta s a gerast vegna hlnunar.etta er alger fviska

hj AL Gore v ef hlnun vri myndi jkullinn hopa en ekki kefla

sj fram, v a ir a aal jkullinn fer stkandi og yngist

sem orsakar skri sj fram. Sem sagt klnun. Myndin er full af

svona rangfrslum og visnningi stareynda.

a ngir a benda jarsguna til a sanfrast a grurhsa

kenningin fst ekki staist.

Leifur orsteinsson, 11.3.2007 kl. 20:19

15 Smmynd: Jn Steinar Ragnarsson

Kki etta. Fyrir mr breytir a engu um gangs mannsins jrinni, flksfjlgun og aulindaurr. a eru mrg mlefni essu samhengi, sem eru hafin upp yfir vsindalegar efasemdir. Skrifai einhverntma um a blogginu mnu undir titlinum "Vr Lmingjakyn" ef einhver vill lesa. g er akkltur fyrir a sj sem flestar hliar argumentum. Takk fyrir etta.

Jn Steinar Ragnarsson, 11.3.2007 kl. 20:34

16 Smmynd: Jn Steinar Ragnarsson

Virkai n ekki mjg vsindaleg mig essi mynd. Merkilegast fannst mr fullyringarnar um a vsinda menn vru "bias" ea hlutdrgir vegna fjrmgnunar og styrkja til rannsknarverkefna. Las einhverntma kafla eftir Colin Wilson um ennan brest m.a. sem ht "The history of human stupidity." essi fullyring felur vntanlega sr a eir vsindamenn, sem arna koma fram, gtu veri sama marki brenndir. etta sannar helst fyrir mr a ekki skyldi maur kyngja llu svona matreiddu, sem fjlmilar bera bor. a er hugsanlegt a eir su lka hir smu afarkostum peningavaldsins og vsindamennirnir.

Jn Steinar Ragnarsson, 11.3.2007 kl. 20:57

17 Smmynd: Leifur orsteinsson

Hefur enginn huga stareyndum um hvernig kenningin

um Grurhsa hrifin eru notu h plitskum tilgangi,

eins og au byrjuu. Jarsagan er ngjanleg snnun fyrir

v a maurinn rur engu um loftslags breytingar, ar

eru "ri mttarvld" .e. Slinn og hennar stand aal-

hlutverki. Og a er sama hva nttru prtikara vilja kenna

mannana gerum um, eim tilgangi til a last vld,breytir

a engu um r stareyndir sem blasa vi.

Leifur orsteinsson, 11.3.2007 kl. 22:18

18 Smmynd: Haukur Nikulsson

Takk fyrir hugavera bendingu, er hlfnaur a horfa myndina.

Haukur Nikulsson, 11.3.2007 kl. 23:54

19 Smmynd: Jn Steinar Ragnarsson

Tengsl hitnunar og co2 mega vel vera ofmetin og mistlku. etta tir ekki rum rkum umhverfisverndar t af borinu eins og mengun sjvar, gfurleg flksfjlgun og margfeldishrif hennar, mengun loftslags af rum efnum og gsum, rrnun yfirborsjarvegs, mengun og misnotkun grunnvatns, eying skga, eying jarbundinna orkugjafa og svo mtti lengi telja. A kalla umhverfisvitund kommnistskan undirrur er trlega forpoka, ofureinfalda og heimskulegt a mnu mati. Sktt me globalwarming...a getur veri tlkunaratrii hva s trend ir. a er augljst af essari mynd a plitsk einfldun er gangi og rur hennar beinist fyrst og fremst a umhverfisverndarsinnum per se. Hlutdrgnin og skrumsklingin er augljs. Hagsmunir ra hr augljslega ba bga.

Jn Steinar Ragnarsson, 11.3.2007 kl. 23:56

20 Smmynd: Finnur Hrafn Jnsson

Takk fyrir bendinguna. Mr fannst myndin mjg g samantekt helstu rksemdum gegn kenningunni um hnattrna hlnun af manna vldum.

Einhver var a kvarta yfir v a hfundur myndarinnar hefi veri stainn a v a klippa til vitl til a f fram niurstu sem leita var eftir. Michael Moore var einmitt stainn a v sama en a kom ekki veg fyrir a hann vri verlaunaur.

g skil ekki afhverju hfundur myndarinnar tti a vera klippa til vitl til a f fram einhverjar srstakar niurstur arar en vimlandur vilja koma framfri. Flestir af eim sem hann talai vi eru ekktir efasemdarmenn um hnattrna hlnun af mannavldum.

Finnur Hrafn Jnsson, 12.3.2007 kl. 01:49

21 Smmynd:

Finnur og arir "kliparar". a er bara klippt als staar, hverju degi. Sama hvor a er um mynd a ra ea eitthva sem snertir okkur daglegu lfi.

Fjrmgnun fyrir str verk er mikil atri. Ekki tla til dmis Kauping greia fyrir a. FrekkarAlcan og fleiri svn :), ar sem m ekki gleyma a Kannar hafa ekki undirta Kyoto samkomulag.

En alment eigum vi allir lttara a taka vi einhverju sem hagnast okkur. annig fer fram okkar eigin egismi og mynd bord viThe GreatGlobal WarmingSwindle" er frekkar velkomin en ekki. Ef stareyndir eru rangar skulum vi sj um afleiingar rtt nstuni.

p.s. Veit einhver um um tveir vsindamen sem Bush og Blair hraktu burt, ar sem eirra kenning hefur veri of ung fyrir jrina? Ekki var a of ung fyrir byrtungu vrtustum tmartum.

Er a en vnstrvilla Leiftur?, 13.3.2007 kl. 00:17

22 Smmynd: Morten Lange

Sll gst,

Vrir til a stafesta ea gagnrna framsetningu minni ( svar til Leifs ) um hvernig grurhsahrifin virkar ?

Svona til a auka jafnvgi og fkka rkleysum ....

Morten Lange, 13.3.2007 kl. 00:49

23 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Fyrir rtt tpum ratug setti g bla (rafbla?) eftirfarandi um hrif CO2: og einnig:

ar stendur m.a:

"CO2 hleypir gegn um sig stuttbylgju hitageislum fr slinni, en dregur sig langbylgju hitageisla fr yfirbori jarar. Vi a hitnar lofthjpurinn rlti til vibtar. Yfirbor jarar fr annig varmageislun beint fr slinni, og auk ess vibtar varmageislun fr CO2 lofthjpnum. annig mlist hrra hitastig vi yfirbor jarar, svo jrin og lofthjpurinn sem heild su jafnvgi gagnvart heildarinnstreymi varmaorku fr slinni. etta hefur fr me sr klnun efri loftlgum. CO2 er nnast gegnstt fyrir innrautt ljs me um 15 mkrmetra ldulengd.

etta er mikil einfldun grurhsahrifum koltvsrings, en nrri lagi. Reyndar er etta elisfrilega rttari skring, en a segja a koltvsringur s eins og teppi yfir jrinni, eins og oft sst. Grurhsahrif af vldum koltvsrings er annig elisfrilega allt anna fyrirbri en hlnun grurhsum".

g hef ekki uppfrt etta fjlda ra.

Ekki veit g hve mikil hrif aukins CO2 undanfrnum ratugum hefur haft hitastig. a er mjg lklegt a hrif slar hafi haft veruleg hrif, enda er vita me vissu a virkni hennar hefur veri venju mikil. g hef v haldi mig vi a segja a "helmingur" s af vldum CO2 og "helmingur" af vldum nttrunnar, en bti v svo vi a "helmingur" s eitthva sem er bilinu 20-80%.

Svo er a auvita anna sem flestir vita. Vatnsgufan er miklu hrifameira grurhsagas en CO2, fyrst og fremst vegna ess hve miki er af henni. g hef heyrt tlur allt upp yfir 90% og um 5% fyrir CO2.

g held a allflestir vsindamannanna sem komu fram myndinni s sviparar skounar. eir eru ekki a segja a hri CO2 su engin, heldur a au su vntanlega minni en amennt er tali, m.a skrslum IPCC.

gst H Bjarnason, 13.3.2007 kl. 08:44

24 identicon

g held a gst Bjarnason tti a lesa essa vsindagrein

rni (IP-tala skr) 23.3.2007 kl. 19:18

25 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Sll rni X

g kannast vel vi etta ml. essari grein er eingngu fjalla um breytingu tgeislun slar (luminosity, eins og segir greininni). N hafa augu manna beinst a rum ttum, og er einn eirra kynntur hr:

ar stendur m.a: "a sem gerir essa kenningu svo merkilega er a hn getur skrt stran hluta eirrar hlnunar sem var sustu ld. nlegri samantekt IPCC um loftslagsbreytingar, Summary for Policymakers eru hrif aukins koltvsrings talin vera 1,6 W/m2, en hrif tgeislunar slar aeins 0,12 W/m2 (solar irradiance).(Sj Lesi mynd fr IPCC eftir Einar Sveinbjrnsson). Skrsla IPCC tekur aeins tillit til beinna hrifa slargeislanna, en fjallar ekkert um hrif slvindsins og segulsvis slar. grein Henriks Svensmark Astronomy & Geophysics kemur fram, a hin beinu hrif breytilegrar virkni slar geti verimiklu meiri en hin beinu hrif. Reynist a rtt, eru hrif slar engu minni en hrif aukins koltvsrings sustu ld. Vi verum a muna eftir a etta er enn kenning".

N vntanlega eftir a koma ljs nstu rum hvort essi kenning er rtt. Svo virist vera a virkni slar fari minnkandi um essar mundir, og ekki lklegt a v haldi fram allra nstu ratugina. verur unnt a mla essi hrif, ef einhver eru. Einnig gti a haft allnokkur hrif hitafar jarar, sem kmi illa vi okkur hr Frni.

gst H Bjarnason, 23.3.2007 kl. 20:06

26 identicon

Sll gst

Takk fyrir etta. g mun lesa essa grein eftir Henrik.


rni Richard

rni (IP-tala skr) 23.3.2007 kl. 22:01

27 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Sll aftur rni

a er gaman a rna tvr greinar sem komu t nnast sama dag. nnur er s sem vsair mr :

A) Foukal, Peter, Claus Frhlich, Henk Spruit and Tom M. L. Wigley, 2006. Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate. Nature Vol. 443, No 7108, pp. 161-166, September 14, 2006.

og hin er:

B) Scafetta, Nicola, and Bruce J. West, 2006. Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17718, doi:10.1029/2006GL027142, September 15, 2006

Ef vi berum saman fein atrii sjum vi vel hve lit vsindamanna er mismunandi. Sj srstaklega litaa textann nest:

1. Aferafrin:

Foukal o.fl.:

"A proper measure for the Sun's output in this context is the wavelength-integrated radiation flux illuminating the Earth at its average distance from the Sun, called the total solar irradiance (TSI).
Uncertainties imposed by the Earth's atmosphere delayed precise determination of variations in TSI until satellite-borne radiometry became available about a quarter of a century ago. Although the TSI fluctuation discovered so far through these measurements are too small to have a significant effect on climate, their analysis has now led to a robust understanding of solar luminosity variations, and new insights into the influence of magnetic fields on stellar convection. This advance in understanding is important, because it allows us to use the relatively short time series of space-borne measurements, along with other kinds of solar observations, to draw conclusions about the probable behaviour of TSI over past centuries and millennia, the timescales of more direct interest to climate studies."

Scafetta og fl.:

"The phenomenological approach we propose is an alternative to the more traditional computer-based climate model approach, and yields results proven to be almost independent on the secular TSI proxy reconstruction used.
We assume that the secular climate sensitivity to solar change can be phenomenologically estimated by comparing the secular warming between the solar and temperature records during the pre-industrial era (roughly 1600-1800 or 1600-1900 AD), when, reasonably, only a negligible amount of anthropogenic-added climate forcing was present. During this period the sun was the only realistic force affecting climate on a secular scale. Any secular change of the albedo and of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (H2O, CO2, CH4, etc.) occurring during this pre-industrial era should be considered natural climate feedback to solar change, and therefore, counted as an indirect solar effect on climate. In fact, for example, it may be misleading to assume that all changes of CO2 concentration must have an anthropogenic origin because the existence of CO2 natural feedbacks are indeed known and involve ocean-atmosphere gas exchange interaction [Cox et al., 2000] and respiration rates of bacteria in the soil [Brandefelt and Holmn, 2001]."


2. Tmabili fyrir invingu 1600-1850

Foukal og fl.:
"Overall, we can find no evidence for solar luminosity variations of sufficient amplitude to drive significant climate variations on centennial, millennial and even million-year timescales."

Scafetta og fl.:
"We find good correspondence between global temperature and solar induced temperature curves during the pre-industrial period such as the cooling periods occurring during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) and the Dalton Minimum (1795-1825)."


3. Tmabil invingar 1850-2000

Foukal og fl.:
Sama niurstaa og hr a ofan.

Scafetta og fl.:
"The sun might have contributed approximately 50% of the observed global warming since 1900"


Jja, hva segja eir um vissuna:

Foukal og fl.:
"Additional climate forcing by changes in the Sun's output of ultraviolet light, and of magnetized plasmas, cannot be ruled out. The suggested mechanisms are, however, too complex to evaluate meaningfully at present.
Clearly, more needs to be done on such reconstructions to help guide future modelling."

Scafetta og fl.:
"Most of the sun-climate coupling mechanisms are probably still unknown.
However, they should be incorporated into the climate models to better understand the real impact of the sun on climate because they might strongly amplify the effects of small solar activity increases."

Hr virast eir nokku sammla rtt fyrir allt :-) a verur gaman a fylgjast me framvindunni.

gst H Bjarnason, 23.3.2007 kl. 22:48

28 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Svo er hr eitt splunkuntt, en samt eldgamalt:

NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records
March 19, 2007


NASA Logo - Jet Propulsion Laboratory

gst H Bjarnason, 23.3.2007 kl. 23:07

29 Smmynd: Gunnar Th. Gunnarsson

Strskemmtilegar umrur hr. g b spenntur eftir fleiru frlegu. Takk!

Gunnar Th. Gunnarsson, 7.4.2007 kl. 00:29

30 identicon

Sll gst.

etta eru sannarlega hugaverar plingar. Eru reyndar engin n tindi, sveiflur hita jrinni tengjast a sjlfsgu orkugjafanum slinni. a er n hins vegar svo a rannsknir sunda vsindamanna um allan heim borkjrnum r jklum, snatku r sj og lofti benda eindregi til a n s komi a tmamtum jarsgunni. Engin eldgos ea rykmekkir eftir loftsteina eru n a setja mark sitt runina, hn er ll einn veg, CO2 vex hrum skrefum, og magni vex veldisvsi. a sem menn deila helst um n er af hverju. Mengunin er ekki a vaxa svona miki eins og magn CO2 bendir til. stan sem helst er talin vera orsakavaldur essara miklu breytinga er einfld elisfri, vxlverkun hkkunar hitastigi sjvar og losun CO2 r haffletinum vi hkkandi hitastig. etta er svona svipa og opna kkflsku og lta standa inni kliskp. Eftir heilan dag er enn hressandi magn goss drykknum. Ef flaskan er ltin standa vi stofuhita er kki ori flatt og drekkandi eftir tvr klukkustundir.

Ef orka slar vri a hafa svona mikil hrif eins og fram kemur myndinni The Great Global Warming Swindle tti hitastig plnetunum nst slu a hafa vaxi mun meira en mlingar benda til. Svo, tilgtur eru gar til vangaveltna en raunveruleikinn er bara v miur allt annar.

Vi slendingar eigum fagra og mikilvga jkla landinu okkar. a tti a vera forgangsverkefni okkar a verja essi vatnsforabr me llum rum. Brnun eirra mun hafa skelfileg hrif ntingarmguleika okkar virkjanlegu vatnsafli framtinni. Slkt eigum vi ekki a lta okkur lttu rmi liggja.


Jhann Kristjnsson

Jhann F Kristjnsson (IP-tala skr) 7.4.2007 kl. 15:28

31 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Sll Kristjn

akka r fyrir hugaver skrif. Lklega er g sammla r flestu. a sem g hef veri a skrifa er auvita eingngu plingar leikmanns. g hef fylgst me essum mlum ratug, og srstaklega me hlisjn a ru hugamli sem er himingeimurinn og nlg okkar vi breytilega stjrnu sem vi kllum sl.

Aalatrii er a skoa mli me opnum hug og tra ekki neinu :-)

gst H Bjarnason, 8.4.2007 kl. 10:07

32 Smmynd: gst H Bjarnason

Jhann, n var mr heldur betur messunni. Um lei og g sendi skeyti s g a g hafi kalla ig Kristjn!g bist afskunar essum klaufaskap.

gst H Bjarnason, 8.4.2007 kl. 10:09

Bta vi athugasemd

Ekki er lengur hgt a skrifa athugasemdir vi frsluna, ar sem tmamrk athugasemdir eru liin.


Ágúst H Bjarnason
Ágúst H Bjarnason

Verkfr. hjá Verkís.

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Aðeins málefnalegar athugasemdir, sem eiga ótvíætt við efni viðkomandi pistils, og skrifaðar án skætings og neikvæðni í garð annarra, og að jafnaði undir fullu nafni, verða birtar. 

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