Fęrsluflokkur: Višskipti og fjįrmįl

Vanžekking almennings ķ Hollandi og Bretlandi į ašdraganda Icesave mįlsins...

 


 

Ķ dag kom ķ heimsókn til mķn hollensk fjögurra manna fjölskylda sem er į viku feršalagi um Sušurlandsundirlendiš. Mašurinn er jaršešlisfręšingur og konan hjśkrunarfręšingur. Meš žeim voru ķ för tveir synir um ellefu og žrettįn įra. Mjög višfelldiš fólk meš góša menntun. Žau voru hér ķ fyrsta skipti, en eiginmašurinn hafši veriš vķša um heim starfs sķns vegna. Ég gęti žvķ trśaš aš žetta fólk ętti aš hafa betri upplżsingar um heimsmįlin en margir ašrir śtlendingar, enda skein žaš ķ gegn žegar spjallaš var um heima og geima...

... Samtališ snérist smį stund aš Icesave mįlinu.  Ķ ljós kom aš žau höfšu lagt allstóra fjįrhęš, hluta af arfi, inn į Icesave reikning ķ Hollandi. Ķ fyrstu blasti ekki annaš viš en žessi verulega fjįrhęš vęri töpuš, en hollenska rķkisstjórnin hefur bętt žeim skašann aš fullu.  Žetta višfellda fólk bar žvķ ekki neinn kala til Ķslendinga, aš žvķ er ég gat skynjaš. Og žó. Eitthvaš lį ķ loftinu.

Ķ ljós kom aš žau höfšu alla tķš stašiš ķ žeirri meiningu aš ķslenska rķkiš stęši aš baki Icesave, žetta hefši jś veriš sjįlfur Landsbankinn = The National Bank of Iceland. Gamalgróinn banki stofnašur įriš 1885.    "Safe and secure", eins og stendur ķ auglżsingunni hér aš ofan.

Ég sagši žeim ķ fįeinum oršum frį žvķ hvernig ķ pottinn vęri bśiš. Sagši žeim frį einkavęšingu bankanna įriš 2003, eigendum bankanna og hvernig žeir hefšu gengiš ķ sjóši bankanna og lįnaš sér og vildarvinum skefjalaust gegn ónżtum vešum. Sagši žeim frį žvķ hvernig žessir sömu menn hefšu stofnaš fjölmörg fyrirtęki hér į landi og erlendis, mešal   annars ķ skattaskjólum. Sagši frį krosstengdri eignaašild. Sagši žeim frį žvķ aš um 30 žekktir Ķslendingar ęttu nįnast alla sök į fjįrmįlahruninu į Ķslandi.

Žetta įgęta vel menntaša fólk kom af fjöllum.   Žessa hliš mįlsins hafši žaš aldrei heyrt um. Žaš stóš greinilega enn ķ žeirri trś aš ķslenska rķkiš , og žar meš ķslenska žjóšin, ętti sök į Icesave hörmungunum. Nś vissu žau betur, en hvaš um alla hina? Vita milljónir Hollendinga og Breta nokkuš um bakgrunn mįlsins?

Viš skildum aušvitaš mestu mįtar, enda var umręšan um Icesave ašeins lķtill hluti kaffispjallsins, en mér var brugšiš. Eitthvaš mikiš var greinilega aš.

 

Žaš er alveg kristaltęrt aš Hollenskur og Breskur almenningur hefur ekki hugmynd um hvaš geršist į Ķslandi. Žaš er mjög lķklegt aš sama gildi um žarlenda rįšamenn. Er žaš nokkur furša? Ég minnist žess ekki aš hafa séš nokkrar upplżsingar ętlašar śtlendingum um bankahruniš į ķslandi og ašdraganda žess.  Žaš er örugglega įstęšan fyrir žessum mikla misskilningi um įbyrgš ķslenska rķkisins. Žetta var jś sjįlfur Landsbankinn - The National bank of Iceland sem stóš aš Icesave.

Nś veršur aš eyša žessum misskilningi mešal śtlendinga strax. Ekki seinna en strax. Žaš er nįnast öruggt aš misskilningurinn og vanžekkingin er ekki bundin viš Englendinga og Hollendinga. Žaš žarf aš koma réttum upplżsingum sem vķšast. Žaš žarf aš nota allar mögulegar fréttaveitur, og ekki sķst netiš. Žaš ętti aš vera hęgšarleikur aš senda hęfilega langa fréttatilkynningu til helstu fréttastofa heimsins og stęrstu fjölmišla. Hafa fréttina žannig aš fréttamenn geti birt hana óbreytta. Žetta er žó ekki nóg. Žaš žarf aš nżta öll diplómatķsk, persónuleg og višskiptaleg sambönd til hins żtrasta til aš reyna aš afla okkur skilnings og velvilja. Eyša misskilningi og vanžekkingu.  Žaš žarf aš gerast strax.

 

Mikilvęgast af öllu er žó aš fį hjól atvinnulķfsins til aš snśast. Žaš er forsenda žess aš žjóšarskśtan komist į flot. Mörg aršbęr og mannaflsfrek verkefni bķša žess aš traust alžjóšasamfélagsins į Ķslendingum komist ķ lag, en  nś er traustiš į okkur ekkert. Jafnvel minna en ekkert. - Okkur er aš blęša śt.


Jón Danķelsson og Kįri Siguršsson: Mistök ķslensku samninganefndarinnar...

"Svo illa hefur tekist til aš samninganefndin hefur aukiš skuldbindingar Ķslands um tugi milljarša króna. Greining į greišslužoli Ķslands sżnir aš lķkur į žjóšargjaldžroti eru mun meiri er yfirvöld vilja vera lįta"

(Žessi grein birtist ķ Morgunblašinu laugardaginn 11 jślķ og er eftir Dr. Jón Danķelsson prófessor viš London School of Economics og Dr. Kįra Siguršsson viš Hįskólinn ķ Reykjavķk. Ķ greininni koma fram nokkur mjög alvarleg atriši sem bloggaranum žykir rétt aš halda til haga og ķhuga vel, enda grķšarmikiš ķ hśfi. 

Nś er brįšnaušsynlegt fyrir alla aš staldra viš og flana ekki aš neinu. Mistök į mistök ofan hafa veriš gerš alla tķš frį bankahruninu, en mistök nś geta rišiš žjóšinni aš fullu. Hvaša sannur Ķslendingur vill eiga žįtt ķ slķku? Okkur ber skylda til aš nżta okkur žekkingu og reynslu fęrustu innlendra sem erlendra sérfręšinga ķ žessu erfišasta mįli ķslandssögunnar).

 

 

 jon-danielsson.jpgkari-sigur_sson.jpg

Dr. Jón Danķelsson
London School of Economics

 

 Dr. Kįri Siguršsson
Hįskólinn ķ Reykjavķk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mistök ķslensku samninganefndarinnar                 

"GREINARGERŠ og fylgiskjöl meš Icesave-samningnum viršast sżna aš ķslensku samninganefndinni yfirsįust žżšingarmikil atriši Ķslandi til hagsbóta ķ deilunni viš Breta og Hollendinga. Samningarnir taka ekki »tillit til hinnar fordęmalausu stöšu Ķslands« eins og haldiš er fram ķ greinargeršinni. Žvert į móti er Ķslandi gert aš kyngja nįnast öllum kröfum Breta og Hollendinga įsamt žvķ aš greiša kostnaš žessara landa af deilunum.

 

Rök Ķslands sem ekki koma fram
Hér veršur ekki dvališ viš hvort krafan į ķslenska rķkiš vegna Icesave-reikninganna sé réttmęt eša ekki enda var samninganefndinni fyrirskipaš af stjórnvöldum aš ganga aš žvķ sem gefnu. Nefndinni viršast hins vegar hafa yfirsést eftirfarandi lykilatriši:

1. Žaš er grķšarlega mikilvęgt aš neyšarlögin sem sett voru af Alžingi sķšastlišiš haust standist. Annars eiga mun fleiri kröfur ķ žrotabś Landsbankans og Ķsland fęr miklu lęgri upphęš greidda śr bśinu. Standist lögin ekki mį įętla į grundvelli gagna frį Landsbanka aš Ķsland endurheimti 29% ķ staš 75% af kröfum į bankann. Męlt ķ krónum fengjust žvķ ašeins 314 milljaršar króna, ekki 814 milljaršar eins og gert rįš fyrir ķ greinargeršinni. Icesave-samningurinn ętti aš hafa skżr endurskošunarįkvęši ef ķ ljós kemur aš neyšarlögin halda ekki.

2. Samkvęmt ķslenskum lögum getur Tryggingasjóšur dregiš ķ allt aš eitt įr aš borga śt vegna innistęšutrygginga. Vegna ašstęšna heima fyrir įkvįšu Bretar og Hollendingar aš borga innistęšueigendum strax ķ desember sķšastlišnum aš Ķslendingum forspuršum. Nś krefjast žeir vaxta frį desember uppį 30 milljarša króna žrįtt fyrir aš Ķsland hefši getaš frestaš greišslum fram til október į žessu įri. Samninganefndin hefši įtt aš hafna žessum vöxtum afdrįttarlaust.

3. Icesave-samningurinn er ķ evrum og sterlingspundum. Samkvęmt neyšarlögunum į Tryggingasjóšur rétt į aš greiša innistęšutryggingu hvort sem er ķ erlendum gjaldeyri eša ķslenskum krónum. Gengi krónunnar ętti aš mišast viš 6. október ķ fyrra, daginn sem FME notaši ķ stašfestingu į greišslužroti Landsbankans, en žį var gengiš sterkara en žaš er ķ dag. Meš Icesave-samningnum er žessi réttur gefinn upp į bįtinn og mišaš viš nśverandi gengi krónunnar er tap Ķslands vegna žessa a.m.k. 43 milljaršar króna. Samkvęmt heimasķšu skilanefndar Landsbanka mį sjį aš rśm 11% af eignunum eru ķ ķslenskum krónum og žvķ til višbótar er greišsla frį NBI, nżja Landsbankanum, įętluš 284 milljaršar króna sem lķklegt er aš verši ķ greitt krónum. Žaš er žvķ rangt sem formašur samninganefndarinnar hélt fram ķ Morgunblašsvištali aš »allar eignir Landsbankans [vęru] ķ erlendum gjaldeyri«.

4. Samkvęmt greinargerš meš Icesave-frumvarpinu eru Icesave-lįnin skrįš į Tryggingasjóš svo žau teljist ekki meš skuldum rķkissjóšs nęstu sjö įrin. Hugmyndin viršist vera sś aš lįnshęfismatsfyrirtękin S&P og Moody's lķti framhjį Icesave-lįnunum žegar žau veita rķkinu lįnshęfismat. Žessi hugmynd byggist į mikilli vankunnįttu į matsašferšum žessara fyrirtękja žvķ žau greina allar skuldbindingar rķkisins, beinar og óbeinar.

5. Til aš verja stöšu Ķslands nęstu įrin vęri žaš lykilatriši aš binda afborganir og/eša vexti af Icesave-samningnum viš verga landsframleišslu eša śtflutningsveršmęti. Žannig vęri tekiš tillit til »fordęmalausrar ašstöšu Ķslands«, lįnshęfismat landsins variš og grunnurinn lagšur aš endurreisn hagkerfisins. Žetta er lķka mikiš hagsmunamįl Breta og Hollendinga žvķ žeir gręša ekkert į aš rukka landiš um hęrri fjįrhęšir en žaš getur stašiš undir.

 

»Kaffiboš meš skyldumętingu«
Samningurinn inniheldur endurskošunarįkvęši sem į aš veita Ķslendingum vörn ef mįl žróast illa ķ framtķšinni. Venjulega žżša slķk įkvęši aš samningur veršur ógildur og ašilar semja į nż sķn į milli. Ķ Icesave-samningnum segir hins vegar aš viš įkvešnar ašstęšur »verši efnt til fundar og stašan rędd og ķhugaš hvort, og žį hvernig, breyta skuli samningi«.

Žaš hvķlir žvķ engin skylda į Bretum eša Hollendingum aš breyta samningnum, bara aš męta į fund. Sérfręšingur erlendis sem viš bįrum žetta undir kallaši įkvęšiš »kaffiboš meš skyldumętingu«.

 

Kostnašur fellur į Ķsland
Ķ greinargeršinni er tekiš fram aš »sanngjarnt vęri aš byršin af žvķ aš [regluverk Evrópurķkja um innistęšutryggingar] hefši brugšist yrši borin sameiginlega«. Ķ lįnasamningnum viš Breta segir aš Ķslandi beri aš bęta breska tryggingasjóšnum »kostnaš sem žegar er fallinn til og mun falla til«. Samsvarandi įkvęši er aš finna ķ hollenska samningnum. Kostnašurinn er ekki skilgreindur nįnar en ekki veršur annaš skiliš en Ķsland ber allan kostnaš landanna žriggja viš śrlausn žessarar deilu. Hann hlżtur aš hlaupa į hundrušum milljóna króna mišaš viš žį lögfręšivinnu, feršalög og fundi śt um alla Evrópu sem Icesave-deilurnar hafa valdiš. Žaš ętti aš vera krafa Ķslands aš hvert land beri eigin kostnaš.

 

Greišslugeta Ķslands óljós
Greinargerš frumvarpsins fylgir snubbótt greining į greišslugetu Ķslands. Žar er gert rįš fyrir aš fari allt į versta veg verši skuldabyrši vegna Icesave 26% af vergri landsframleišslu (VLF) įriš 2016. Greiningin gerir rįš fyrir aš įrlegur vöxtur VLF frį 2009 til 2016 verši 4,6% sem er vęgast sagt mjög bjartsżnt mat. Engin gjaldeyrisįhętta er tekin meš ķ reikninginn heldur reiknaš meš stöšugu gengi krónunnar allan žennan tķma. Viš höfum sett saman raunhęfari įętlun sem birt er ķ fylgiskjali į vefsķšunni risk.lse.ac.uk/icesave um žróun VLF og gengis og žį fer skuldabyršin aušveldlega upp ķ 47% af VLF og ef neyšarlögin halda ekki ķ 68%, ž.e. rśmlega helmingi meira en verstu įętlanir ķ greinargeršinni gera rįš fyrir. Žį į enn eftir aš skoša ašrar skuldir rķkissjóšs en žęr stefna ķ 76% af VLF ķ lok žessa įrs ef frį eru talin lįniš frį Alžjóša gjaldeyrissjóšnum og įętlaš eiginfjįrframlag til nżju bankanna.

Ķ greinargeršinni er skuldastaša Ķslands borin saman viš tķu rķkustu žjóšir G20-landanna og įlyktaš aš »skuldastaša rķkissjóšs [sé] vel višunandi«. Hér er veriš aš bera Ķsland saman viš milljónažjóšir meš grķšarlegar aušlindir, pólitķsk ķtök į alžjóšavettvangi, ašgang aš ódżru lįnsfjįrmagni og skuldir ķ eigin gjaldmišlum sem eru gjaldgengir į alžjóšamörkušum - allt žjóšir sem hafa komist hjį kerfishruni og njóta trausts hjį višskiptažjóšum sķnum. Žessi samanburšur er marklaus.

Žaš veršur aš krefjast žess aš greišslubyršin sé skošuš śt frį žeim hagstęršum sem rķkja ķ landinu ķ fiskveišum, raforkusölu til stórišju, feršažjónustu, innflutningi, velferšarkerfinu og skuldastöšu rķkis og žjóšar. Nišurstöšur slķkrar greiningar žarf aš kynna Alžingi og žjóšinni ķ staš žeirrar ónįkvęmu myndar sem gefin er ķ greinargeršinni.

 

Höfnun Alžingis eina leišin
Ķslensku samninganefndinni bar skylda til aš tefla fram öllum žeim rökum sem studdu mįlstaš landsins. Af mįlflutningi og fylgiskjölum veršur ekki séš aš svo hafi veriš. Svo illa hefur tekist til aš samninganefndin hefur meira aš segja aukiš skuldbindingar landsins um tugi milljarša króna. Greining į greišslužoli Ķslands sem fylgir frumvarpinu sżnir aš lķkur į žjóšargjaldžroti eru enn óljósar en žó mun meiri er yfirvöld vilja vera lįta.

Hugsanlega hlustušu višsemjendur ekki į rök samninganefndar Ķslands heldur stilltu henni upp viš vegg. En žį er óheišarlegt aš lįta žess ekki getiš ķ greinargerš samningsins. Formašur nefndarinnar heldur žvķ fram aš samningurinn sé »stórkostleg nišurstaša« og »leiš śt śr fįtękt og įnauš«. Žjóšin į rétt į aš vita sannleikann: Žessi samningur er hvorki réttlįtur né sanngjarn. Honum veršur aš hafna og senda hęfari samninganefnd til fundar viš Breta og Hollendinga.

Ķtarlegar tilvķsanir ķ lög, greinar og ašrar upplżsingar įsamt śtreikningum er hęgt aš nįlgast į vefsķšunni risk.lse.ac.uk/icesave".

 

Jón Danķelsson, London School of Economics
Kįri Siguršsson, Hįskólinn ķ Reykjavķk
Fylgiskjöl vegna icesave greinar
ķ Morgunblašinu, 11 jślķ, 2009:

(Smella į krękjur)



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(Leturbreytingar eru į įbyrgš bloggarans)

 

Svo mörg voru žau orš hagfręšinganna Jóns Danķelssonar og Kįra Siguršssonar. Žarna eru grķšarlega alvarlegar įbendingar og višvaranir sem naušsynlegt er aš gefa góšan gaum og ķhuga vel.  Meš greininni fylgir višauki meš śtreikningum, bęši sem texti og Excel skjal. Žetta eru fagmannleg vinnubrögš.

Er einhver möguleiki į žvķ aš finna einhverja leiš śt śr žessum ógöngum sem viš viršumst hafa komiš okkur ķ meš sķendurteknum mistökum alla tķš frį hruninu?

Er įstęšan fyrir žessum mistökum m.a. sś aš viš notfęršum okkur ekki žekkingu og reynslu okkar fęrustu sérfręšinga ķ samningum viš śtlendinga og žašan af sķšur erlendra sérfręšinga sem kunna til verka, heldur sendum hóp manna sem hafa litla sem enga reynslu af slķkum mįum til aš semja viš hįkarla stóržjóšanna? "Sendum knattspyrnufélagiš Gróttu til aš spila viš Manchester United".

 

Alžingismenn og rįšherrar:  

Įbyrgš ykkar er mikil. Hęttiš aš rķfast eins og  krakkar, reyniš heldur aš vinna saman aš lausn žessa alvarlega mįls. Flaniš ekki aš neinu. Alls ekki mį taka neina įhęttu. Notfęriš ykkur menntun og reynslu okkar allra hęfustu sérfręšinga og samningamanna. Sendiš ekki ašra į fund erlendu hörkutólanna.  Notiš menn sem hafa fullkomiš vald į enskri tungu og kunna til verka, jafnvel erlenda sérfręšinga ef meš žarf.

 

Tillaga um lausn:

Hvernig vęri aš Alžingi Ķslendinga samžykkti Icesave samningsdrögin meš naušsynlegum fyrirvörum til aš tryggja hagsmuni okkar eins og kostur er, og taka žį tillit til žeirra įbendinga sem komiš hafa fram, m.a ķ grein Jóns og Kįra. Aš minnsta kosti eins og ķ liš 5: "Til aš verja stöšu Ķslands nęstu įrin vęri žaš lykilatriši aš binda afborganir og/eša vexti af Icesave-samningnum viš verga landsframleišslu eša śtflutningsveršmęti". 

Ef viš samžykkjum samninginn į žann hįtt er ólķklegt aš allt yrši vitlaust, eins og hętta er į aš geršist ef viš höfnum honum algerlega. Ķ mesta lagi kęmi fżlusvipur į Englendinga og Hollendinga.

Alžingi hlżtur aš vera heimilt aš samžykkja samninginn meš fyrirvörum. Annaš er fjarstęšukennt.

 

 


Hefur sjįvarborš veriš aš hękka hrašar og hrašar undanfariš? Nei, alls ekki...


Stundum žykist mašur greina eitthvaš óvenjulegt ķ nįttśrunni. Oft er um hreina tilviljun aš ręša, en stundum er forvitnin vakin og žį staldrar mašur viš og fer aš velta hlutunum fyrir sér...

(Uppfęrt 17. jślķ: Sjį athugasemdir # 39  og 49). 

Žessi pistill er helgašur breytingum ķ sjįvarstöšu. Augun beinast bęši aš breytingum allra sķšustu įra, en žį viršist sem hęgt hafi į hękkun sjįvarboršs, svo og breytingum sķšustu aldar, en žar mį vel greina įratuga langa sveiflu sem vel gęti passaš viš sólsveifluna, svo fjarstęšukennt sem žaš nś er.

Skošum fyrst ferilinn hér fyrir nešan žar sem mį sjį breytingar ķ sjįvarstöšu frį 1993. Žetta eru męlingar geršar meš hjįlp gervihnatta. Mešalhraši hękkunar er gefinn upp 3,2 mm į įri (+/- 0,4 mm skekkjumörk).  Ekki er hęgt aš greina aš hraši hękkunar (hröšunin) hafi veriš aš aukast į žessum tķma, en hvaš er aš gerast frį įrinu 2007?  Er aš hęgja į hękkun sjįvarboršs? Hvernig stendur į žessu?   Lķklega er žetta bara tilviljunarkennt frįvik og įstęšulaust aš hugsa meira um žaš...

Sjį vefsķšuna University of Colorado Boulder - Sea Level Change žar sem fjallaš er um žessar męlingar.

 

Gervihnattamęlingar. Engin hröšun merkjanleg.
Hummm...   Hefur hęgt į hękkun sķšustu 2-3- įr?    Sjį hér.

 


 Sķšustu 130 įr. Mešalhraši hękkunar 1,8 mm/įri (18 cm į öld). Sjį hér.

 

 

 

post-glacial_sea_level.png

Frį lokum sķšustu ķsaldar. Takiš eftir grķšarlegum hraša į hękkun sjįvarboršs fyrir rśmlega 10.000 įrum. Eftir žaš hęgir verulega į hękkuninni og sķšustu įržśsundin hefur hękkunin veriš nokkuš stöšug, ž.e. ekki verulega frįbrugšin žvķ sem er ķ dag. Sjį hér.

 

 

holocene_sea_level_874025.png

Sķšustu įržśsundin, eša nśtķmann (holocene) mį sjį betur į žessari mynd.
Sjįvarborš hefur veriš aš rķsa frį žvķ ķsöldinni lauk fyrir um 10.000 įrum. Enn er žessi hękkun ķ gangi.
Sjį hér.

 

 

phanerozoic_sea_level.png

Ef viš horfum 500 milljón į aftur ķ tķmann žį sjįum viš hve sveiflur ķ sjįvarstöšu hafa veriš grķšarlegar. (Hér er lįrétti skalinn öfugur mišaš viš fyrri myndir). Sjįvarborš hefur samkvęmt žessu veriš allt aš 400 metrum hęrra en ķ dag!  Sjį hér.

 

 

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Fróšleg grein S.J. Holgate ķ Geophysical Reserch Letters 4. jan. 2007 On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century 

Žar stendur eftirfarandi m.a:

"The rate of sea level change was found to be larger in the early
part of last century (2.03 ± 0.35 mm/yr 1904–1953),
in comparison with the latter part (1.45 ± 0.34 mm/yr 1954–2003) ".

holgat5.gif
 
Mynd śr greininni

Sem sagt, sjįvarborš hękkaši hrašar į fyrri hluta sķšustu aldar en į sķšari hluta aldarinnar samkvęmt Dr. Simon Holgate! 
 
Hverju į mašur aš trśa?

Sjį einnig veggspjaldiš hér.

 

Hver er svo nišurstašan:

Žvert į žaš sem viš höfum veriš aš lesa um ķ fréttamišlum žį eru engin merki žess aš sjįvarborš hafi veriš aš hękka mikiš hrašar undanfarin įr en veriš hefur undanfarna įratugi. 

Viš vitum reyndar einnig aš hitastig sjįvar hefur ekki veriš aš hękka a.m.k. sķšastlišin 6 įr. Sjį hér.

Viš vitum žaš einnig aš hitastig lofthjśps jaršar hefur ekki hękkaš sķšastlišin 7 įr. Sjį hér.

Viš vitum einnig aš heildar hafķsmagn į noršur og sušurhveli hefur varla veriš aš minnka marktękt. Sjį hér og hér.

 

Er žetta ekki allt saman žvert į žaš sem viš lesum nįnast daglega um ķ fréttamišlum?  Hvers vegna?  

 

Svona er nś raunveruleikinn samkvęmt męlingum fęrustu vķsindamanna...

 

 

Aš lokum: Er žetta tilviljun:

 

sea-level-rate-of-change-and-solar-cycles-510.jpg

 

Blįi ferillinn er įrleg breyting ķ sjįvarstöšu alla sķšustu öld, sem sveiflast um ca 2mm į įri.  Sjį hér.

Gręni ferillinn sżnir sólsveifluna į sama tķma.

 

Sjį einnig mynd 2 hér į vefsķšu Dr. Nir Shaviv. Myndin er birt hér fyrir nešan įsamt skżringatextanum. Svarti ferillinn er įrleg breyting ķ sjįvarstöšu ķ mm, og rauši ferillinn er breyting į heildarśtgeislun sólar.  Er žetta ekki ekki alveg makalaust?  Woundering

 

calorimeter2.gif

 

fig 2: Sea Level vs. Solar Activity.
   Sea level change rate over the 20th century is based on 24 tide gauges previously chosen by Douglas [1997] for the stringent criteria they satisfy (solid line, with 1-σ statistical error range denoted with the shaded region).
   The rates are compared with the total solar irradiance variations Lean [2000] (dashed line, with the secular trends removed).
   Note that unlike other calculations of the sea level change rate, this analysis was done by first differentiating individual station data and then adding the different stations. This can give rise to spurious long term trends (which are not important here), but ensure that there are no spurious jumps from gaps in station data. The data is then 1-2-1 averaged to remove annual noise. Note also that before 1920 or after 1995, there are about 10 stations or less such that the uncertainties increase. 

 

Kannski bara skemmtileg tilviljun. Hver veit? Žaš er nefnilega svo margt skrķtiš ķ kżrhausnum, eša žannig... Halo


Skrįr tengdar žessari bloggfęrslu:

Vextir af hśsnęšislįnum ķ Bretlandi eru ķ dag um 2,2% - óverštryggt !

Ķslensk fjölskylda sem bloggarinn žekkir vel var aš endurnżja hśsnęšislįniš vegna ķbśšar ķ Bretlandi žar sem fjölskyldan į lķtiš hśsnęši.

Vextir af lįninu eru 1,7% yfir stżrivöxtum sem eru 0,5%, eša 2,2% samtals.

Lįniš er óverštryggt. Segjum til einföldunar aš mįnašarlegar afborganir séu um 1000 pund, sem er ekki mjög fjarri lagi. Af žessum 1000 pundum fara žvķ um 22 pund ķ vexti. Sjįlfsagt er einhver innheimtukostnašur eins og gengur og gerist, en stašreyndin er sś aš ķ hverjum mįnuši lękkar höfušstóllinn um rśmlega 900 pund.


Hverjir eru raunvextir um žessar mundir af hśsnęšislįnum hér į landi, ž.e. vextir + vķsitöluįlag?

Ef žś greišir 100.000 krónur į mįnuši ķ afborgun og ert meš nżlegt lįn, hve mikiš fer af žeirri upphęš til aš greiša nišur höfšstólinn?
(Ętli žaš sé um 90.000 krónur eins og žaš er hlutfallslega ķ Englandi, eša getur veriš aš žaš sé ekki mikiš meira en 9.000 krónur? Humm...).

 

Hvaša įlyktun getum viš dregiš af žessu?

 

Bank of England: Current Bank Rate 0,5%. Sjį hér.

Umrętt lįn er af geršinni Offset Tracker hjį First Direct.

 

 

 


Įlveršiš er byrjaš aš hękka ... !

 
 
 
 
 
 

Myndin hér fyrir ofan sżnir žróun įlveršs sķšasta mįnuš.
Eins og sjį mį žį er verš į įli greinilega fariš aš hękka ašeins!

 

Athugiš aš allar myndir į sķšunni eru beintengdar og žvķ sķbreytilegar!
Pistillinn var skrifašur 20. mars 2009 og hafa nokkrar breytingar oršiš sķšanžį...

 

 
 
 

 

Žróun įlveršs sķšustu 6 mįnuši.

 

 

 

Žróun įlveršs sķšastlišin 10 įr.

Takiš eftir veršinu um žaš bil sem įkvešiš var aš rįšast ķ įlver ķ Hvalfirši og į Austurlandi. Ętli žaš hafi ekki veriš um 2002-2003. Žį var verš į įli ķ US$ svipaš og ķ dag.

 

Heimild: www.infomine.com  Efri ferilin mį sjį hér.

Ferlarnir uppfęrast sjįlfkrafa daglega.

 

 

Sjį vefsķšu Dr. Žrastar Gušmundssonar sérfręšings ķ įlišnaši. Hann hefur mikla žekkingu į framleišslu įls.

 


mbl.is Telja óvķst aš hęgt verši aš standa viš Helguvķkurįform
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

Glöggt er gests augaš: Įskorun žingmanns Evrópužingsins til Ķslendinga...

Bretinn Daniel Hannan er žingmašur į Evrópužinginu. Hann hefur oft komiš til Ķslands sķšastlišin 15 įr og žekkir vel til ESB. Žaš er žvķ full įstęša til aš hlusta į hvaš žessi Ķslandsvinur hefur til mįlanna aš leggja varšandi Evrópusambandiš.

Greinin birtist ķ Mbl. 3. janśar 2008, bls. 32. (Bloggarinn breytti lit ķ textanum til aš gera hann aušlesnari į skjį).

Aš sjįlfsögšu žarf žaš sem hér fer į eftir ekki aš vera skošun bloggarans. Žaš er Daniel Hannan sem hefur oršiš hér, en bloggarinn telur mjög mikilvęgt aš kynna sér sjónarmiš manns sem gjöržekkir til innviša ESB.  Sjįlfsagt er aš kynna sér allar hlišar žessa mikilvęga mįls.

 

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danielhannan.jpgKĘRU Ķslendingar! Ég geri mér fulla grein fyrir žvķ aš žiš standiš nś frammi fyrir mjög erfišum tķmum - viš stöndum raunar öll frammi fyrir mjög erfišum tķmum - en engir erfišleikar eru svo miklir aš ašild aš Evrópusambandinu geti ekki gert žį verri. Ég skil vel aš žiš séuš ķ sįrum og finnist žiš standa ein į bįti. Žiš hafiš fulla įstęšu til žess eftir ömurlega framkomu Gordons Browns ķ ykkar garš. En ef žiš bregšist viš meš žvķ aš leggja nišur lżšręšiš ykkar og sjįlfstęši žį festiš žiš ykkur ķ sömu vandamįlum og žiš eruš ķ nśna um alla framtķš.

Innganga ķ ESB fęli ķ sér algera örvęntingu, rétt eins og raunin var ķ tilfelli okkar Breta. Viš geršumst ašilar aš forvera sambandsins į hinum erfišu įrum žegar Edward Heath var forsętisrįšherra, žegar veršbólga var ķ tveggja stafa tölu, allt logaši ķ verkföllum, lokaš var reglulega fyrir orku til almennings og žjóšargjaldžrot blasti viš. Žaš er erfitt aš ķmynda sér aš viš hefšum stutt ašild įratug įšur eša žį įratug sķšar. Žaš hefši einfaldlega ekki rķkt nógu mikil svartsżni og örvęnting. Žegar komiš var fram į 9. įratug sķšustu aldar fór breskur almenningur aš gera sér grein fyrir žvķ hvaš Evrópusamruninn vęri ķ raun: kötturinn ķ sekknum. En žį varš einfaldlega ekki aftur snśiš. Nišurnjörvašir af reglugeršafargani frį Brussel glötušum viš samkeppnisforskoti okkar. Viš gengum Evrópusamrunanum į hönd viš erfišar ašstęšur og afleišingin var sś aš viš festum žęr ašstęšur ķ sessi.

Ekki gera sömu mistökin og viš geršum. Žiš žurfiš žess ekki! Ég hef haft ómęlda įnęgju af žvķ aš feršast reglulega til Ķslands undanfarin 15 įr og į žeim tķma hef ég oršiš vitni aš ótrślegum framförum. Slķkar breytingar eru oft augljósari ķ augum gesta sem annaš slagiš koma ķ heimsókn en žeirra sem hafa fasta bśsetu į stašnum. Žegar ég kom fyrst til landsins höfšuš žiš nżlega gerst ašilar aš Evrópska efnahagssvęšinu sem veitti ykkur fullan ašgang aš innri markaši ESB įn žess aš žurfa aš taka į ykkur žann mikla kostnaš sem fylgir ašild aš sambandinu sjįlfu.

Ķmyndiš ykkur aš ķ tķmabundnu vonleysi tękjuš žiš žį įkvöršun aš ganga ķ ESB og taka upp evruna. Hvaš myndi gerast? Ķ fyrsta lagi yrši gengi gjaldmišilsins ykkar fest til frambśšar viš evruna į žvķ gengi sem žį vęri ķ gildi. Endurskošun į genginu meš tilliti til umbóta ķ efnahagslķfi ykkar vęri śtilokuš. Aš sama skapi yrši ekki lengur hęgt aš bregšast viš efnahagsvandręšum ķ framtķšinni ķ gegnum gengiš eša stżrivexti. Žess ķ staš myndu slķkar ašstęšur leiša til mikils samdrįttar ķ framleišslu og fjöldaatvinnuleysis.

Žaš nęsta sem žiš stęšuš frammi fyrir vęri žaš aš fyrir inngönguna ķ ESB yrši aš greiša hįtt verš, fiskimišin ykkar. Žessi mikilvęgasta endurnżjanlega nįttśruaušlind ykkar yrši hluti af sameiginlegri sjįvarśtvegsstefnu sambandsins.

Fljótlega mynduš žiš žó įtta ykkur į žvķ aš žiš hefšuš afsalaš ykkur einhverju margfalt dżrmętara en fiskimišunum. Ykkar mesta aušlegš liggur nefnilega ekki ķ hafinu ķ kringum landiš ykkar heldur ķ huga ykkar. Žiš bśiš yfir einhverju best menntaša fólki ķ heiminum, frumkvöšlastarfsemi er mikil sem og öll framtakssemi. Žiš hafiš byggt įrangur ykkar į minna regluverki, skattalękkunum og frjįlsum višskiptum. En žiš mynduš reka ykkur į žaš aš žiš hefšuš gengiš til lišs viš fyrirbęri sem er fyrst og fremst skriffinnskubįkn grundvallaš į grķšarlegri mišstżringu į öllum svišum og hįum verndartollum ķ višskiptum viš rķki utan žess.

Ég get upplżst ykkur um žį sorglegu stašreynd aš afstašan til ykkar er ömurleg ķ Brussel. Žaš er litiš nišur į ykkur. Daginn sem žaš lį fyrir aš allir bankarnir ykkar höfšu lent ķ erfišleikum komu žrķr Evrópusinnašir žingmenn į Evrópužinginu til mķn glottandi hver ķ sķnu lagi: "Jęja Hannan, Ķslendingarnir žķnir eru ekki beinlķnis aš gera žaš gott žessa dagana, ha? Žeir sem hafa viljaš standa utan viš ESB. Žeir hafa alltof lengi fengiš aš hafa hlutina eftir eigin höfši, žeir įttu žetta skiliš!"

Tilvist ykkar ein og sér sem sjįlfstęš og velmegandi žjóš hefur skapaš öfund ķ Brussel. Ef 300 žśsund manna žjóšfélag noršur viš heimskautsbaug getur nįš betri įrangri en ESB žį er allur Evrópusamruninn ķ hęttu aš įliti rįšamanna sambandsins. Įrangur ykkar gęti jafnvel oršiš rķkjum sem žegar eru ašilar aš ESB hvatning til žess aš lķta til ykkar sem fyrirmyndar. Žaš er fįtt sem rįšamenn ķ Brussel vildu frekar en gleypa ykkur meš hśš og hįri.

Žiš hafiš vališ. Žiš getiš oršiš śtkjįlki evrópsks stórrķkis, minnsta hérašiš innan žess, ašeins 0,002% af heildarķbśafjölda žess. Eša žiš getiš lįtiš ykkar eigin drauma rętast, fylgt ykkar eigin markmišum, skrįš ykkar eigin sögu. Žiš getiš veriš lifandi dęmi um žann įrangur sem frjįlst og dugandi fólk getur nįš. Žiš getiš sżnt heiminum hvaš žaš er aš vera sjįlfstęš žjóš, sjįlfstęš ķ hugsun og athöfnum sem er žaš sem gerši ykkur kleift aš nį žeim įrangri sem žiš hafiš nįš į undanförnum įratugum. Hugsiš ykkur vandlega um įšur en žiš gefiš žaš frį ykkur.

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Höfundurinn Daniel Hannan er žingmašur breska Ķhaldsflokksins į Evrópužinginu. Hann er meš bloggsķšu į vef Daily Telegraph hér. Hann hefur skrifaš įtta bękur um Evrópumįl og talar auk móšurmįlsins frönsku og spęnsku. Hann er meš próf ķ sagnfręši frį Oxford.   Meira um hann į Wikipedia.

 

Greinin į vef Morgunblašsins: Įskorun til Ķslendinga

Ķ Morgunblašinu er aš hefjast greinaflokkurinn Fréttaskżringar um ESB, Kostir og gallar ašildar.

 

 


Myndband ķ Wall Stree Journal: How Iceland Collapsed ...

 

wall_street_journal_logo.jpg

 


 

 

Myndbandiš hér fyrir nešan birtist 26. desember ķ Wall Street Journal. Žaš gefur nokkuš góša mynd af įstandinu į Ķslandi.

Myndbandiš į Wall Street Journal er hér, ef innfellda myndbandiš hér fyrir nešan virkar ekki sem skyldi.

 


Frįbęr grein um Ķsland ķ Sunday Times

 The Sunday TimesTimes Online

 
Adrian Antony Gill skrifar frįbęra grein meš miklum hśmor ķ The Sunday Times ķ dag. Eiginlega er ekki hęgt annaš en birta hana hér, jafnvel žó žaš sé ķ óleyfi. 
 
Aušvitaš kemur óvinur Ķsland nśmer 1, Gamli Jarpur (Gordon Brown), viš sögu og eru honum ekki vandašar kvešjurnar.
 
Greinna mį lesa hér
 
From
December 14, 2008

Iceland: frozen assets

Six months ago, Iceland was one of the world’s richest nations. Now it’s bankrupt. AA Gill visits the first victim of the economic ice age

sunday_magazine_447497a.jpgIn the summer of 1783, there was a volcanic eruption in the southeast of Iceland that vomited lava into the Skafta river, which boiled and ran with fire like a mythological Nordic curse. The volcanic gases were toxic and poisoned animals in their byres. Seething clouds of opaque ash plumed into the sky, blotting the sun. Everything that photosynthesised withered and died. There was a famine that killed a fifth of the population — a fifth of the people who had survived the smallpox epidemic that had previously seen off a quarter of all Icelanders.

So the penury of the Icelandic banking system, the collapse of its currency, the parlous implosion of its economy that relegated it from being, per capita, the second or third richest nation in the world to being the shivering Big Issue-seller of Europe, bobbing in the queue somewhere behind Albania and Moldova, is not actually the worst thing that ever happened to this island. That would have to be the two occasions when the plague wiped out more than half of everybody. Iceland didn’t have any rats, but they got Europe’s worst case of bubonic deaths without them. That’s unheard of. That’s virtually impossible — but that’s how Iceland’s luck is. It’s said you make your own luck; it’s never said that your luck also makes you.

Iceland and Icelanders have been forged on the anvil of hard knocks. The unfair thing about this latest paper calamity is that it happened just when they thought things were going so well. There were restaurants that sold food for people who weren’t hungry, there were international bars for international folk, there were boutique hotels with ambient music, and candles for smell, not illumination. Iceland was chic and cool, not just in a cold way. “This summer,” a pretty girl with a red nose and a pink scarf told me, “everybody was here on a small patch of green in front of the parliament” (which itself is smaller than Elton John’s guesthouse). “We came to cheer and drink, because Iceland had won a silver medal at the Olympics for handball,” she said. “It was huge. We’d never won a medal before.” Who came first? “Who cares? We came second. Everything was going so well.”

Reykjavik is littered with the detritus and shells of things that were once going so well and now aren’t going at all. Like the big four-wheel-drives, bought on a promise and the never-never. The biggest is a Babel-ish building site, palisaded by protective cranes, which was hoping to be a music hall, the Sydney Opera House of the far, far north. There is still a visitors’ centre, with a girl on the phone looking for a new job. There’s a toy model of what it is now unlikely to look like. You can peer through a telescope at nobody working. I watched one ancient traffic warden give a ticket to a solitary pick-up, abandoned on a patch of rutted wasteland that was going to be a smart amenity area. This was all financed by Landsbanki, one of the raiding banks that spent like mullered fishermen and borrowed like agoraphobic Vikings, who leveraged the economy into the stratosphere without a Keynesian parachute, along with every other bank in the monetarist world.

The difference here was that in every other city centre, they can run home to Daddy Government and have their gambling debts paid off. The Icelandic government is a dozen shepherds and a couple of grocers in Specsavers and M&S suits. One of the reasons they say the financial risk was so precipitous was that the entrepreneurial pool is so small. The bankers and the regulators, the ministers and the judges are all the same people — they’ve known each other all their lives, their wives and their children are friends, and nobody wanted to be the one who said no. And why should they?

It was all going so well.

Down by the container port, where the derricks droop idly, is a car pound the size of half a dozen football fields, circled by defunct iron boxes. It’s full of hundreds, perhaps thousands of cars. Behind them, across the grey fjord, black pumice crags are scarred with snow. The cars are going nowhere, dumped here at the end of the world: a great, windswept, conceptual monument to the hubris of Mammon, laughed at by black-backed gulls. These testaments to excess are now the most tasteless things to be seen in. They call the puttering Range Rovers “Game-Overs”.

Further down the shore is a speculation of modern flats, expensive, insubstantial urban penthouses that may well remain empty for ever. A young man passing by, dressed in the winter uniform of Icelandic youth — skinny jeans, T-shirt with ironic postmodern slogan, Converses and a bit of a useless scarf, hunched shoulders and a general air of thermometer-denial and hungover insouciance — stops and laughs. “Who did we ever think was going to live here? Now we look back and it seems mad. Anyone could have told them. I could have told them.”

Outside Reykjavik, there are suburban developments for new commuter suburbs. They put in roads and street lights but the houses have yet to be built, or stand blankly unfinished. Outside, a little girl plays in the gloaming with her sheepdog. It’s a strangely surreal image: the silent cul-de-sac, like a model of the middle-American ’burbs, with just this child, a character snatched from an Edward Hopper painting.

Further along a road called End of the World we find a self-employed electrician. His company is called “Why Not Me”. When he has finished here, he is going abroad to find work — “Poland, probably” — and he smiles a crooked Icelandic smile. It’s a joke. There used to be lots of Poles here doing the dirty bits of the economic soft times. Now they have all gone home because the Icelandic krona has become shrapnel in the explosion of free markets.

Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitnir sound like elf characters from The Lord of the Rings, and there is an element of fairy-tale comeuppance to these three backwater banks. Only when you’re shown their headquarters do you realise how bizarre and unworldly their success was. They look like small city shops, branches of Bradford & Bingley. One of them was run from the floor above a fast-food restaurant. As with every great disaster the world over, the moment after it happened, the scales fell from every eye and all could see that it was inevitable. Where were the white-collar jobs for the commute back from the brave new garden suburbs to come from? Where was the black-tie audience for the opera? How could Iceland have the sharpest cashiers in the world? How could this nation sustain just two main industries: cod-fishing and international high finance? And, most importantly, most damningly, how did they ever think they could buck the Icelandic luck? Now everyone looks back at the road they’ve just travelled and wonders why none of them mentioned it was made of marzipan and Rolexes.

The act that tipped the last Icelandic bank off the edge of the cliff was delivered by Gordon Brown, who froze Icelandic assets in the UK using our new, gleaming anti-terrorist legislation. The Icelanders mind that — they’re hurt by that. You see, they always imagined they were one of us, not one of them. But Gordon needed to do something cheap to look competent, so he beat up a smaller kid. Not just a bit of a slap, but a vicious kicking. Showing off to impress the girls. He would never have started it if the banks had been German or French, or even from Liechtenstein.

The Icelanders mind about the terrorist thing. They don’t even have an army. They barely have a jail: it’s more of a drop-in centre. The police drive you home if you’re too drunk. This is the most liberal, reasonable, hard-working, decent, moral, amusing and well-educated people on the Continent; a nation who are temperamentally the furthest away from terrorism. Remember that about Brown — the man who said he wanted to prevent the export of terrorism. Remember it when he puts on his Save the World, Mr International Harmony hat. He put an ally into intensive care for the sake of a headline and three points in a weekend poll. Perhaps he didn’t notice. Perhaps he was looking through his glass eye.

Let’s just be clear about what Iceland really is. Most people think it’s the size of the Isle of Wight with the population of, say, Holland. It’s bigger than Hungary, bigger than South Korea, which has a population of 50m. There are just over 300,000 people in Iceland. So that’s a country the size of Portugal with the population of Bradford. Those are Mr Brown’s terrorists.

Iceland imagined that Europe and America would help it out. After all, it has always helped us out. Keflavik was a vital Nato base between the east coast of America and the west coast of Europe in the cold war. We were all in this together. Except, as they were to learn, we were only in it together if we were fat enough to buy ourselves the solution. The Russians bailed Iceland out: Reykjavik could be a very useful place to launder money and cock a snook. And the Faroe Islands, bless them, population 48,000, lent £34m. Everyone in Iceland signed a thank-you card. And finally the IMF came up with a rescue package.

Oh, but Gordon Brown — or you and me, as he is known abroad — leant on that so that fat, stupid English councils could get their greedy noses in the trough before Icelandic children got a banana. That’s not hyperbole — because they have so little foreign currency, imports are graded into three categories: essential, necessary and luxury. Exotic fruit is a luxury, but then in Iceland a tree is an oddity. If you want fruit, eat fish liver or a puffin.

Sitting in the happy, healthy organic cafes of downtown Reykjavik where the hippie kids blog (there are more bloggers here than anywhere else) and girls with blond babies laugh at each other, you wouldn’t know this was an economically dead country walking. In the 101, a New York-brittle boutique hotel built and patronised by the bankers and speculators, you couldn’t tell that nobody here has a pension or savings. The groups of svelte and confident girls flick their hair, neck cocktails and make blatant passes at the men with face hair like mangy seals who are downing beer and shots. Icelanders react to bad news the way they always have. It’s the same way they react to good news: they get hammered. Properly Valhallaed. The bars and clubs are full, the booze is expensive, and they toast each other with a grim irony. There are still redundancy payments around — they’re cash-happy. The crunch will come in the New Year when the brass handshakes run out.

People may be hurt by Brown and the British, and embarrassed by the gluttony and ineptitude of their own businessmen, and they are angry with their government. They want an election and someone to be Icelandic enough to grasp the blame and responsibility. But about themselves and the future they are remarkably, Nordically sanguine. A very direct woman in a bar said: “All that money, all the things and the stuff, it’s very un-Icelandic. The wanting, the conspicuous consumption, the avarice and ambition, the pathetic jealousy, that isn’t us. A great weight has been lifted now the money and the desires are gone. We can get back to being who we are.”

Who the Icelandics are is one of the great enigmas of northern Europe. They speak an ancient, pure Scandinavian. They are horrifically hard-drinking, maudlin and prone to flights of dark nihilism and lengthy bitterness. They are taciturn fishermen and farmers; stoical, practical and moral. They have published more books and produced more chess grandmasters per head than anywhere else. They read more and write more, they sing and play instruments. Everyone here can change a tyre, strip an engine, ride a horse, sail a boat, dress a sheep and cure a salmon. They have grown through a hard Calvinism to a moral atheism while maintaining an open mind about elves.

Roads are moved to avoid the homes of the hidden people: elves have to be asked permission before new buildings are built, and country folk see them regularly, not always when drunk. The fairy folk who share this empty island with the humans are Adam’s other children: the unwanted, cloaked by God in invisibility.

There is also a deep handmade seam of nostalgia that links all Icelanders. Families are going back to the old ways — to buying the autumn-culled sheep. Traditionally you get an odd number, and the whole family comes to make slatur, a sort of fatty haggis sausage that is boiled and tastes like warm, meaty fat. The warming cabinets of convenience stores offer vacuum-packed, ready-cooked, laterally sliced halves of sheep’s heads, which I’m told are selling like boil-in-the-bag halves of sheep’s heads. The women are going back to knitting rough, tarry wool into the mentally geometric jerseys that feel like wearing St Francis’s wife-beater. A big second-hand shop has become a smart and fashionable place to shop, though not for anything that is fashionable or smart. The contents are commendably and pathetically meagre and practical. The boxes of second-hand records hum the contradictions of Iceland’s long winter. There are lots of romantic choral works, home-grown folk songs from men in third-degree knitting, and heavy metal and prog rock. On the second-hand-magazine rack are piles of practical outdoor-activity manuals and a copy of Hello! commemorating the death of Princess Diana.

The designer interior-decorating emporiums that sprung up in the last five years now stand empty and sulky, like party-dressed girls with panda eyes waiting at morning-after bus stops. There’s a large new mall on the outskirts of Reykjavik, neon-bright and desolate. The girl who takes me there says, “A mall — nothing could be less Icelandic than a mall. All this will go,” and waves a mittened fist at the prefab warehouses, the new homes and the loneliness of the long-distance car park with its flapping flagpoles, “and we can stop pretending to be little Americans, or Danes, or British.”

There is something invigorating about Iceland at this moment — like being with people waking from a dream. It’s exciting and instructive. It’s a patronising cliché to say that people have wealth beyond mere riches. Nobody is better off for being poor. But this tight-knit, undemonstrative community at the edge of the world has been woven together from sterner stuff than I think we could muster. “We’ll be all right — we’re not going to starve,” a shopkeeper told me. “We have fish and rye and mutton and barley. We can grow the odd tomato in a polytunnel. We have skills — useful skills, practical skills. And, you know, they’re under-heating the pavement outside my shop so it won’t freeze in the winter. All our energy is thermal and free. So maybe I can’t have a new mobile phone, but when I get drunk and fall over, the pavement will keep me warm.”

From the 12th century a miraculous thing happened here: one of those eruptions of creation that defy the laws of culture and make civilisations briefly pyrotechnic. A series of books were written to illuminate the dark: sagas, secular stories of life, of mystery and mythology, of lords and farmers, politics and revenge, love affairs and voyages. Stories that were the first to be written as narratives with parabolas of plot and evolving characters. Nobody anywhere else had ever done that before. It is the birth of literature. They are as inexplicably, breathlessly awe-inspiring as the conception of the Renaissance a hundred years later. It was the Icelandic sagas that inspired Tolkien to write The Lord of the Rings, because he wanted Britain to retrospectively have a creation myth. Nobody knows what inspired Iceland or what precipitated this volcano of clear, collected genius. It was just Iceland: out there, sparse and treeless.

In the howling gale where the water boils and the volcanoes rumble, and the earthquakes make the ground liquid, and black shores crash and smoke, it is a landscape that fills you with either dread or stories. And it’s shared with the hidden people and the heroic solitude, a brooding presence to measure your height against.

Iceland has grasped this weakness, this greed, this business with money, and turned its back to take an unsentimental look at itself.

They will be all right. This is the nation that made the first democratic parliament — the Althing — that fought the Royal Navy to make the first sustainable fishery in the northern hemisphere, produced three Miss Worlds and one Nobel literature laureate — then came second at handball. You are measured by how squarely you stand against bad luck. Not how you squander good luck.

 

---

Komment um greinina:

Your best ever Adrian. It's a pity it is about such tragedy. But as they say..."We'll be Ok" I'm sure they will.

Geoff, birmingham, uk

 

Another superb article from one of my favourite writers.

miko, Singapore,

 

A superb article, written on two levels. It starts off rough, almost on purpose, and ends as one of the best written articles I've read in recent years. I've never been to Iceland, but surely I want to go now, if only to meet some of the folks who have survived more than most nations ever could.

Stephen Churchill, Brockton, USA

 

I have never read a more elegantly written article in my life.

Michael Fernandes, Chapel Hill, USA

 

A gifted scribe indeed, writing about a place in need of gifts. Yet which also evidences the consequences of seeking easy wealth.
Prov 11:28) "He that trusteth in his riches shall fall: but the righteous shall flourish as a branch."

daniel hamilton, Chelsea, United States

 

Exceptionally good. And true to life of all the Icelanders I have met in several countries.

Austin Scott, Chicago,

 

I've been to Iceland many times over the years, organizing tourist trips centering on the Medieval sagas. But best of all I have made friends there, and the integrity and the courage of Icelanders will take them through this. A. A. Gill did a fantastic job on capturing the spirit of Iceland.

Bob Wilhelm, Hagerstown, USA

 

This is definitely one of the best articles I have ever read on this website.

Kunal Chakraborty, Cambridge, UK

 

This article is staggeringly well written. Iceland is a fascinating place, made all the more intriguing by A.A. Gill's evocative writing. The Icelandic attitude is apt: while nobody enjoys being poor, adversity can be a reinvigorating test of character - e.g. late 70s Britain, early 90s Australia.

Luke Critchley, Toowoomba, Australia

 Sjį hér:

 http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5329762.ece


mbl.is Brown sparkaši ķ Ķslendinga
Tilkynna um óvišeigandi tengingu viš frétt

Brettum upp ermar meš bros į vör. Komum žjóšarskśtunni į flot meš samstilltu įtaki :-)

_43025361_wide_shot.jpgAllir verša aš bretta upp ermarnar nś žegar efnahagsumrótiš skekur heimsbyggšina og žjóšarskśtan er komin yfir brimrótiš og upp ķ fjöru. Situr žar sem fastast.

Meš bjartsżnina aš vopni og bros į vör munum viš sigrast į öllum erfišleikum.  Hugsum eins og stelpurnar okkar ķ Kvennalandslišinu ķ knattspyrnu žegar žęr svifu brosandi yfir ķsilagšan Laugardagsvöll, įkvešnar ķ aš sigra Ķra.   Žęr fóru létt meš žaš. Žį var gaman aš vera Ķslendingur.  Eins munum viš sigrast į öllum okkar vandamįlum. Žaš mun ganga mun betur ef viš erum bjartsżn.

Žaš žarf žó snör handtök. Engan tķma mį missa. Skśtan er fljót aš grafast nišur ķ sandinn og žį veršur allt erfišara.  Allir sem vettlingi geta valdiš verša aš męta til leiks og taka žįtt ķ björgunarašgeršunum. Mikilvęgt er aš allir séu samstķga og virki hugmyndaflugiš til aš finna rįš. Hugi aš öllu, bęši stóru og smįu. Žaš geršu menn žegar Baldvini Žorsteinssyni var bjargaš af strandstaš įriš 2004 eins og allir muna. Žį sżndu menn śtsjónarsemi, dugnaš og žor. Fyrst og fremst voru menn allan tķmann bjartsżnir.

Eitt af vandamįlunum er aš olķan hefur lekiš af žjóšarskśtunni og hśn er žvķ vélarvana. Įn vélarafls kemst hśn ekki į flot. Ķ žjóšfélagiš vantar fjįrmagn til aš koma lķfi ķ atvinnugreinarnar og žaš strax. Fyrirtęki eru aš gefast upp. Fólk er fariš aš missa vinnuna. Atgervisflóttinn er byrjašur. Vandamįliš versnar dag frį degi ef viš gerum ekkert. Snśum žvķ vörn ķ sókn. Lįtum ekki skśtuna grafast ķ sandinn.

Hvar fįum viš nęgilega olķu til aš sigla žjóšarskśtunni frį strandstaš til aš koma henni ķ višgerš? Hvar fįum viš žaš afl sem žarf til aš sigla henni į brott og į nż og betri miš? Hvernig getum viš tryggt įhöfninni vinnu nęstu mįnuši mešan žaš versta gengur yfir og skśtan er ķ slipp žar sem veriš er aš lagfęra dęldirnar og ašrar skemmdir?

Viš žurfum fyrst og fremst aš finna leiš til aš bjarga okkur nęstu mįnuši og įr. Koma eins og kostur er ķ  ķ veg fyrir atvinnuleysi og atgervisflótta, žvķ fįtt er eins hęttulegt žjóšinni og žaš aš missa stóran hluta žjóšarinnar śr landi.

Hvaš sem mönnum kann aš finnast um stórišjur, žį yrši įlveriš ķ Helguvķk, ef aš framkvęmdum veršur į nęstu mįnušum, sį olķudropi sem viš žurfum į vél žjóšarskśtunnar til aš nį henni frį strandstašnum. Žaš getur skipt sköpum ef hęgt er aš finna vinnu fyrir 3000 manns viš žessar framkvęmdir į nęstu mįnušum.  Aušvitaš munu enn fleiri njóta žess óbeint žegar peningarnir fara aš streyma um ęšar efnahagskerfisins. Žannig fįum viš vonandi naušsynlegt fjįrmagn til aš virkja frumkvöšla til nżsköpunar, fjįrmagn til aš styšja viš menntakerfiš, heilbrigšiskerfiš, menningu og listir. Ekki veitir af.

Aušvitaš megum viš ekki treysta į aš einhvejar stórframkvęmdir komi til meš aš bjarga okkur. Žęr gętu vissulega hjįlpaš svo um munar. Krafturinn er fólginn ķ okkur sjįlfum fyrst og fremst. Žess vegna veršum viš öll aš hefjast handa. Hver į sķnu sviši. Uppbygging Nżja Ķslands er hafin!

 

Brettum upp ermar meš bros į vör. Losum žjóšarskśtuna af strandstaš! Nóg er til af vinnufśsum höndum. Ašalatrišiš er aš hefjast handa, jafnvel žó hęgt gangi ķ fyrstu. Framhaldiš kemur sķšan af sjįlfu sér...                       

                                                                                                                   

 

optimism.jpg

 

Nś er lķklega komiš yfriš nóg af kreppubloggi og kominn tķmi til aš fjalla um įhugaveršari mįl ...   Eitthvaš uppbyggilegra ...


Tenging ķbśšalįna viš launavķsitölu mun heppilegri fyrir lįntakendur į óvissutķmum en tenging viš lįnskjaravķsitölu...

Vęri ekki rįš aš breyta reglum, a.m.k. timabundiš, žannig aš vķsitölubundin lįn taki miš af launavķsitölu frekar en lįnskjaravķsitölu?

Į samdrįttartķmum eins og nśna hękkar launavķsitalan mun minna en lįnskjaravķsitalan. Stendur jafnvel ķ staš.

Launavķsitalan sżnir breytingar heildarlauna allra launžega fyrir fastan vinnutķma.

Lįnskjaravķsitala  er reiknuš śt frį framfęrsluvķsitölunni (2/3) og byggingarvķsitölunni (1/3). Lįnskjaravķstalan fylgir veršbólgunni miskunnarlaust.

Į nęstu mįnušum mun lįnskjaravķsitalan vęntanlega hękka mun hrašar en launavķsitalan.

Vęri žaš ekki mikiš öryggi į žeim óvissu- og samdrįttartķmum sem eru aš hefjast ef greišslubyršin breyttist ķ takt viš launin frekar en ķ takt viš óšaveršbólguna?  Til lengri tķma litiš hafa žessar vķsitölur aš miklu leyti fylgst aš, žannig aš bankar og lķfeyrissjóšir ęttu ekki aš tapa.

Nś er žaš spurning hvort eitthvaš vit sé ķ žessu ...

 

launavisitala-600w.jpg

 Žróun launavķsitölu s.l. 4 įr.  Į nęstu mįnušum er ólķklegt aš bśast megi viš mikilli hękkun.

 

 


Žróun lįnskjaravķsitölu s.l. 4 įr.  Į nęstu mįnušum er lķklegt aš bśast megi viš mikilli hękkun.

 

Innlent | mbl.is | 21.11.2008 | 18:55

Hętti aš greiša af lįnum sķnum

Um 200 milljaršar kr. leggjast į höfušstól verštryggšra lįna į nęsta eina og hįlfa įrinu aš mati Gunnars Tómassonar hagfręšings ķ Bandarķkjunum. Ašgeršir rķkisins til hjįlpar efnahags heimilanna séu žvķ einsog aš setja plįstur į svöšusįr.

Hefur fréttastofa Stöšvar 2 eftir Gunnari aš viš slķkar ašstęšur sé raunveruleg hętta į žvķ aš žeir sem séu meš verštryggš lįn hętti aš greiša af lįnum sķnum.

 


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Ágúst H Bjarnason

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